Negative Earnings Growth Expected Through 1H08

Back in November, estimates for Q4 '07 year over year S&P 500 earnings growth stood at 1.7%. Currently, with nearly all companies having reported fourth quarter earnings, EPS growth stands at -18%. As shown below, the root cause to the negative number for the S&P 500 is Financials, where earnings have declined 105%.

Below we highlight growth estimates for the first three quarters of 2008 as well. Earnings growth for the S&P 500 is expected to be slightly negative for the first half of the year and then grow by 16% in the third quarter. It's also worth noting that many sectors are still expected to see strong growth. Technology, Energy, Industrials and Consumer Staples currently have the best growth expectations for the next few quarters.

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Comments

[rodcore:]

Dear Bespoke Investment Group,

When will you stop getting it wrong. I can recall not too long ago (2-4 months to be precise) sitting on a huge short position and reading your bullish and rosy outlooks on Q4 07 and 2008. I remember being highly irritated as you carelessly lead your readers into the abyss.

You got it wrong then and you continue to get it wrong in every quixoticly optimistic article you post.

Why don't you just wait until this thing has worked it's way out before you start telling people that everything will be okay in Q2? Seems prudent to me considering how wrong you've been all along.

2008 Feb 19 12:51 PM

[flow5:]

“ Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” ( George Santayana. 1863-1952.”The Life of Reason”,ch.12)

In the area of economics it is more accurate to say that those who believe that the past reveals eternal truths are doomed to error.

2008 Feb 19 01:41 PM

[flow5:]

That's the right pattern.

2008 Feb 19 01:45 PM

[Stephen Ros...:]

Bespoke doesn't predict. They just throw out current market trends based on computer generated data. It's up to us to make predictions of the data. I personally like some of the creative ways they present this info. Keep up the good work!!!!

2008 Feb 19 05:05 PM

[xander:]

i always read your posts. thanks

2008 Feb 20 03:57 AM

[Jake2:]

Mathematics and marmalade don't necessarily go together, However, some numbers are better than others, and tea leaves are great . . . for making tea.

2008 Feb 21 02:07 AM