Coal is Up, Goldman Downgrade Be Damned

Coal stocks are simply on an epic run due to worldwide shortage issues. Again, thank you China. So much for the Goldman downgrade - the whole sector is 5-8% up, regaining all of Friday's losses immediately.

As I wrote Friday [Beginning Small Stake in Arch Coal on Goldman Downgrade]

Myself, while I can agree with this call in the very near term (the stocks are very overextended) I disagree 100% long term - and although I've lightened up a bit on this large run in the sector I want a lot more exposure for the long run.

I have been lightening up on some of the fastest runners, and I sold a bit more Mechel (MTL) today near $118, as the stock is making an incredible run, but we appear to be heading to quite a perfect storm in commodities of all types. Stagflation in the US is looking more "in the bag" by the day. (I will laugh if tomorrow's CPI number comes in at something like 3.4%!)

Not only is my World of Shortages theory playing out in every corner of the globe, but Fed- induced liquidity will flood this world with useless dollars and they need to go somewhere - I believe the world's hedge fund computers are going to this area as well - notice crude making a run again to $100. Thank you Ben for Bubble 3.0.

Much like Bubble 2.0 (housing) this is going to cause serious pain - Bubble 2.0 hurt the US people more directly and financials institutions worldwide. Bubble 3.0 - if indeed focused on worldwide commodities is going to cause havoc globally, especially in food. But at least we bailed out NYC bankers and speculators. Always a silver lining.

p.s. Adding back to some of that Ultrashort Financial (SKF) I cut back late Friday. We are now at the top of our near term trading range, so it seems most likely we now revert down. If CPI even reflect 1/3rd of what is really going on in the real world we will start to have serious inflation fears begin to percolate in the mainstream media...

Disclosure: Long Mechel, Arch Coal, Ultrashort Financial in fund; long Ultrashort Financial in personal account

Comments

[UncleFred]

Another very relevant equity is FDG, appreciating in share price while paying a decent dividend, though not as much as other CanRoys by a wide margin.

[MFN`917]

I've been pleased with coal ETFl - "KOL". Progress in lat 30 days is very good.