One of the key questions for Apple's (AAPL) June quarter will be how many iPhones will be sold. This is the first quarter where there should be a limited amount of channel fill (at the end of March Apple said iPhone channel inventory was within its targeted four to six weeks) and pent up demand for the 4S in most of the major markets will have been satisfied.
In the March quarter Apple sold just over 35 million iPhones with 9 million in the US (AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and Sprint (S)) and 26.1 million internationally (along with a few small US carriers). March quarter sales were helped by 2.6 million in channel fill. I am estimating that Apple could sell 31 million iPhones and believe the Street is projecting 27 to 29 million.
Thirty-one million iPhones should generate just over $20 billion in revenue and would be 50% of my $40 billion June quarter revenue estimate. This compares to iPhone revenue of $22.7 billion or 58% of the $39.2 billion March quarter revenue.
My projection is based on Apple continuing to increase market share and strong international growth, especially in China. The table below is the three month rolling average of smart phone market share measured by comScore. It shows Apple's US market share increasing from 28.1% in October last year to 31.4% in April.
Oct. '11 | Nov. '11 | Dec. '11 | Jan. '12 | Feb. '12 | Mar. '12 | Apr. '12 | |
46.3% | 46.9% | 47.3% | 48.6% | 50.1% | 51.0% | 50.8% | |
Apple | 28.1% | 28.7% | 29.6% | 29.5% | 30.2% | 30.7% | 31.4% |
RIMM | 17.2% | 16.6% | 16.0% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 11.6% |
Microsoft | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% |
Symbian | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
Other | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Below is a table of historical US and international iPhone sales and my June quarter projections. It outlines what I believe are reasonable if not a bit conservative estimates to get to my 31 million iPhone estimate.
AT&T, Verizon and Sprint accounted for 9 million of Apple's 35.1 million iPhones in the March quarter which was a 55% year over year increase. For the June quarter I am estimating US iPhone sales of 6 million, only a 2% year over year increase and a (33%) decrease from the March quarter. The (33%) decrease compares to the June 2011 quarter over quarter increase of 2%.
International and a few small US carriers iPhone sales were 26.1 million, a 104% increase year over year in the March quarter. I am estimating this group will sell 25 million iPhones which would be a year over year increase of 74% and a (4%) decrease from the March quarter (vs. a 13% quarter over quarter increase in the June 2011 quarter).
Million units | Mar. '11 | June '11 | Sept '11 | Dec '11 | Mar. '12 | June '12 |
US | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 6.0 |
'% US | 31% | 29% | 27% | 37% | 26% | 19% |
Y/Y % | 55% | 2% | ||||
'Q/Q % | 2% | (20)% | 189% | (34)% | (33)% | |
International | 12.8 | 14.4 | 12.4 | 23.4 | 26.1 | 25.0 |
% Int'l | 69% | 71% | 73% | 63% | 74% | 81% |
Y/Y % | 104% | 74% | ||||
'Q/Q % | 13% | (14)% | 89% | 11% | (4)% | |
Total | 18.6 | 20.3 | 17.1 | 37.0 | 35.1 | 31.0 |
Y/Y % | 89% | 53% | ||||
'Q/Q % | 9% | (16)% | 117% | (5)% | (12)% |
Disclosure: I am long AAPL.
Additional disclosure: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security.
