Roger Nusbaum submits: 'What do you think of tech?' a reader wants to know.
I'm not sure I'm the guy to ask.
I have been underweight the sector for a long time. That was right in 2004, a push in 2005, started out being wrong this year but is now a push.
The bullish case for tech is based on expected increases in cap-ex. Either you see that or you don't. I'm afraid I don't see it as happening right here right now. If stocks are leading indicators, the tech group should have already started to do well based on how long tech bulls have been hyping the cap-ex effect.
I have been bearish on the old guard tech names for a long time as well, which is why I own IYW (iShares: Dow US Tech) for clients. I don't think any of the big names can beat the sector so I just own the sector. I also have some semiconductor exposure and Yahoo. I expect I will remain underweight for a while, and I doubt I will nail the moment that tech rotates back into a leadership position.
That I expect to miss the bottom is why I have any position at all despite not seeing anything positive in the group.
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