Citigroup Break-Up Analysis - Part III

I posted my extremely conservative valuation on Citigroup (C) last week and promised a more aggressive version in order to try and quantify not only a potential floor in the stock ($22?) but also a reasonable ceiling ($41?).

Below in graphic form are three scenarios; my first one (conservative) as well as a moderate and more aggressive case. I will revisit these projections after Citi reports first quarter numbers, which might shed some light on their normalized earnings power.

Comments

[frase]

u may want to take into account in ur share count all the convertible prefs they issued to shore up the balance sheet. that has a material impact on the per share breakup value

[Zyx]

While I agree with this on a long term revenue generation basis, short term issues, including continuing leveraged loan and housing problems, un-consolidated VIEs, deteriorating consumer loans, etc. will kill the bottom line in the near term (2008, and possibly 2009), perhaps forcing Citigroup to break-up and/or sell businesses like international retail and global wealth management