Server Operating System Indicator: Both Windows, Linux Gains Continue

Dennis Byron submits: The year-end IDC Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker factory revenue numbers were released February 27. From an operating system perspective, there’s really no new news in them (but see the press release or the relevant IDC report for vendor and other characteristics). But we lay them out there for comparison with the quarter by quarter results we blogged on in November, September and May 2007.

For 2007 vs. 2006, the net-net is Microsoft (MSFT) Windows-based systems continued to gain share primarily at the expense of “Other” (primarily legacy mainframe-operating-system based). Unix/Linux-based server revenue was basically flat year over year with Linux open source systems continuing to displace UNIX systems as expected.

Linux gained slightly more than a percent of share while UNIX lost just under a percent of share (not shown).

As we noted in November, it appears from eight quarters of IDC data that the Unix/Linux share of the market is stabilizing in the 40-45% range, although they hit 46% in quarter 4 2007 only. We will need to watch to see if this is an upward trend or a seasonal issue.

Although overall Windows-based server revenues are gaining at the expense of “Other,” such as IBM (IBM) mainframe operating software, the trends went the other way in quarter 4, so that is something else we will watch. I believe that blip was totally seasonal because end of calendar year buying is a 40-year pattern for legacy systems.

Comments

[freenextel@...:]

I can not believe you have not covered IBM's new green optical network technology? This is probably the biggest thing to hit since the invention of the internet. With this tech. we can now get any file instantly..

2008 Feb 29 11:35 PM

[Tom B:]

The stats are likely skewed a bit by the fact you need multiple Win servers to get the performance of one LINUX server.

2008 Mar 01 10:06 AM

[Dennis Byro...:]

Thomas, that would require believing that the millions of people participating in a multi-billion ($54B) market do not act rationally. Market analysts like myself don't tend to think that way :)

But just to be compensate for any possible skewing of the data as you suggest, I look at Unix and Linux as one market, and Windows and other as a second market. This is not a Linux vs. Windows comparison but a Unix vs. Linux and Windows vs. Other comparison.

-- Dennis

2008 Mar 01 04:59 PM

[Dennis Byro...:]

In thinking about Other gaining on Microsoft Windows in Q4, in addition to seaonality related to typical mainframe purchases (Q4 2006 and Q4 2007 both showed upticks in "Other"), there was likely some Q4 2007 decline in Windows demand as buyers awaited Server 2008.

As noted in earlier blog posts, I expect Windows to move toward 50% evenutally at the expense of "Other." This would begin to show up in August 2008 numbers if I am correct and should be very obvious by this time next year.

2008 Mar 02 01:05 PM