National Bank of Greece: Cash in on Kosovo's Independence 15 comments
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Question: Which country's economic growth blew away estimates provided by the International Monetary Fund in 2006? Doubled it, in fact. Hint: It wasn't even a country two weeks ago. And, it has a lot of investors scratching their heads.
Two years ago, hanging in legal limbo under the watch of the United Nations, the majority-Albanian ethnic enclave of Kosovo achieved 5% yearly GDP growth. The Austrian-based Economic Initiative for Kosova says that total came entirely from the private sector.
Led by retail and wholesale businesses selling wares to war-weary Kosovars, small and medium-sized enterprises make up about half of Kosovo's economy, with the transport and communications industries coming in second.
Stores, bridges, and phone lines all share a common bond: the need for financing.
That's where my Balkan Peninsula super-play comes in...
National Bank of Greece (NYSE:NBG), the most established bank in the Balkans, trades on Wall Street, and subscribers to my Orbus Investor and Global Growth Stocks international stock recommendation services have already seen double-digit gains in this play on the Balkan boom.
With Greece less than 100 miles from Kosovo's southern border (Kosovo is the shaded red area in the above map), NBG is ready to pounce on yet another opportunity in this region in transition by opening banks in Kosovo.
You see, southeastern Europe went from Cold War tug-o-war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact straight into one of the most horrific civil wars in recent memory.
Yet in 2008 we see Greece, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria all as full members of the European Union, with every other country in the vicinity on track to accede to the continental body, once they meet certain economic and political goals.
In the case of Serbia, which claims Kosovo as an inseparable part of its territory, failure to bring fugitive war criminals to the International Court of Justice has hampered the country's hopes of joining the EU.
Setting fire to the US embassy and burning EU flags in the Serbian capital of Belgrade in the past week surely doesn't help matters.
NBG Looks Towards the Future
As the prime minister of Bulgaria, Sergei Stanishev, said last week, "Serbs have to decide between looking towards the past... and looking towards the future and the European perspective."
National Bank of Greece has sure benefited from taking a European perspective, acquiring majority stakes in regional banks like United Bulgarian Bank that give NBG first dibs on finance-hungry young economies in what used to be Europe's boondocks.
NBG has been around since 1841, spinning off from the Greek government into private profitability and aggressive foreign development.
How to Cash in on New Balkan Banks
As you can see in the chart above, NBG stock has delivered dynamite performance over the past five years, benefiting from Greece's membership in the euro currency zone and the Athens Olympics to the tune of 523% gains.
That's enough to make you shout, "Opa!" (and maybe even break a plate or two).
If you thought the ruckus in Serbia after Kosovo's declaration of independence would drag regional stocks down, think again.
Greek shares of NBG led the Athens Stock Exchange ASE index up sharply on Monday, leading with a 4% one-day jump!
Carrying a dividend of just below 30 cents per share and perfect position to benefit from greater prosperity in Greece and neighboring countries, NBG is a safe European stock in a region that is often misunderstood.
Play this sleeper now for an angle on Kosovo's independence and the emergence of the entire Balkan region from a dark past into a bright future.
Disclosure: none
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This article has 15 comments:
Please get over the embassy burning bit. US-Nato bombed Serbia for 78 days then supported albanian separatists to steal Kosovo and Metohija, 15% percent of Serbia's sovereign territory and then got the world to go along with it and break international law and say goodbye to every country's legal sovereignty by setting this precedent.... And if Serbian youth over-react, well, HEY! -- NATO killed thousands of Serbia's citizens during the 78day illegal bombing of Serbia.
Also Serbia's Serbian Orthodox monasteries and churches in Kosovo and Metohija and Faith in God, Faith in Christ, of the Serbian nation is more important as I would think it would also be more important to the Greek nation than 30 pieces of silver and a more than likely false stock market!
All the Greek community should buy Kosovan stocks, Send trucks full of clothes, food and Ouzo/Metaxa to Pristina, Inter marrying would be the best thing the Greeks could do, and any conversions to Islam and Church burning expertise would really help,; Sam Hopkins.... what village was he from?
SMEDEREVO
Why we did not think of starting banks there before, and cigarette stores, and brothels, and opium dens... why, the list of ideas goes on and on..... as they say in Cyprus..."Go gettum' Greeks !"
This blog master who wrote this is a genius !
Now, to answer other comments:
It is unwise to take offense in what the Sam Hopkins is saying here, or to hate on Greeks (...yes, I am referring to you Lee Coleman). The author is trying to get a strong point across that NBG is definitely a bull stock worth investing in, and the National Bank has made very smart moves. The author is not dissing Serbia, he's just saying that Serbia has so much potential, and hasn't been exploiting that potential wisely enough. Greeks have worked very hard for their money, and if it hadn't been for adopting an EU style investment strategy, they would have still been lagging behind. The point again being, do not be bitter towards Greeks because they did good for themselves, and yes, burning flags and embassies can only lead to more harmful consequences. Serbs should show themselves smarter (no offense meant), and try to get into the EU ASAP, while trying to make the best out of the current situation. It is a tough task, but I wish the best of luck to the Serbs, I commend the Greeks, and all Balkan investors.
Russia is beginning to convert its petro dollars into petro rubles.
Russia, the world's second-largest oil-exporting nation after Saudi Arabia, has been quietly preparing to switch trading in Russian Ural Blend oil, the country's primary export, from the dollar to the ruble.
"The role of the key reserve currencies is under review," said Dmitry Medvedev, the likely successor to President Vladimir Putin, "And we must take advantage of it." "We are in Russia, and the currency is rubles, not euros, not dollars," he said. "We don't want to depend on the rise or fall of the dollar."
A move away from the dollar, meanwhile, is more glum news for the United States.
During a speech on economic policy this month, Dmitry Medvedev, a deputy prime minister and the likely successor to President Vladimir Putin in elections on March 2, said Russia should seize opportunities created by the weak dollar.
"He who has the gold, makes the rules".
The short sighed Greek politicians gave up the worlds oldest and longest living currency, the Greek Drachma, for the euro in 2001.
Since then the basic cost of food has increased 800% and the overall real cost of living has increased 600%.
So the NBG stock increase of 700% from 2 to 14 in the chart above is still under performing basic food prices.
Now that the euro is at 1.52 to the dollar (and rising), spreads between 10-year German government bonds and the equivalent debt across the eurozone's Latin bloc have jumped to the highest level since the launch of EMU, reaching 45 basis points for Greece, and 43 for Italy. The spreads on Spanish bonds have ballooned to 28 from 4 last May, reflecting an abrupt change in perceptions as the property boom deflates and investors take a closer look at Spain's current account deficit, now a 10pc of GDP.
The European politicians get richer while the working class is getting poorer. Over in Turkey they still have the Turkish lira, and their economy is growing faster and without the huge inflation price increases Greece and most of the eurozone countries have experienced in the last decade.
It goes back to the Golden Rule. In the past, countries had their own currency and could control growth and inflation. But since the socialists Europeans let their politicians overrule their own people's wishes to adopt the euro they have given away the control of their sovereign rights to print money to foreigners in Brussels.
"Let them eat Viagra"
was the response from the Northern eurozone countries to the Greeks complaining about the price increases and now the need to work until you're 65-70 years old because of the price increases lowered the value of there old age pensions.
Greece is still a sovereign nation and it's about time they acted like one.
It's long past time to scrap the euro and go back to the drachma.
Second, I looked at the map in your article and I realized that your data are wrong! You see, MAKEDONIA IS GREEK and Skopje are a different country. Skopje were part of Yugoslavia, but now are seperated, looking for their national identity.
Just take a look at this map :
www.bulgarmak.org/map_..., where the coloured areas are Greece, the other around are different countries, e.g. Bulgaria at North East, Skopje at North and Albania at North West.
If the NBR does open branches in Kosovo I would short the stock
invest2success.blogspo...
sent me some info by phone +37744602954 or +38649317121
burimnamoni@hotmail.co...
cheers thanks alot warm regards .
burim .