Too Early to Invest in Financials

It looks as of Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) will be forced to firesale. These are top of the food chain assets, and if these go, they will compress the subordination cushions in other investors/CDS holders that were previously thought to be fool proof. Carlyle Capital looks as if they will be having a firesale as well in addition to Peloton. This is just this week's major media meltdowns!

I have been looking for the entry point to go long assets. I am confident it is at least a year away, but its best to be prepared ahead of time. Until then, I will build my capital base on the short side to the best of my ability and leverage up/gather resources in order to take advantage of the inflection point missed by so many as a result of jumping in so early. My grandmommy (yes, that's what I called her) used to tell me that patience is a virtue.

I noticed that a lot of name brands are jumping in to buy muni, mortgage, and real assets now, but I feel it is much too early. Many foreign investors rushed in with equity investments, for example Citibank (C), Bear Stearns (BSC), Blackstone (BX), Morgan Stanley (MS), etc. only to see their money get whittled away. It is still much too early. I don't know where the bubble will form, but it is a good chance it will be somewhere around the embers of the financial assets that have been so maligned and devalued in an environment ripe for another financial bubble. This will be bad for economic stability, but if I position myself correctly, it will be good for me and mine. I am fairly sure the next boom will not be in residential real assets, and probably not in real assets at all - that sector is pretty much done for quite awhile.

Comments

[User 108022]

I agree with your sentiments but do you have any factual basis for the one year time horizon or is that a subjective judgement?