Given Apple (AAPL) shares are 9% below their April peak, you're likely curious if it's time to buy.
If Mark Twain is right in saying history rhymes, Apple investors won't be disappointed come October.
Over the past 10 Q3's, shares have traded up 8 times for an average return of 13.99%. Shareholders were rewarded with double digit percentage gains 7 times.
But while anticipation of the latest iPhone incarnation helps propel Apple higher in the quarter, it's a different story for Apple's suppliers.
None boast strong seasonality for the upcoming quarter. And three have only gained ground in 4 of the past 10 years - hardly compelling.
Company | Symbol | SECTOR | # Up | Q3 | Q3 |
(of 10) | Average | Median | |||
| Apple Computer | AAPL | TECHNOLOGY | 8 | 13.99% | 16.36% |
SUPPLIERS | |||||
| Broadcom | TECHNOLOGY | 6 | -1.80% | 3.53% | |
| Cirrus Logic | TECHNOLOGY | 4 | -1.15% | -4.64% | |
| Fairchild Semi | TECHNOLOGY | 5 | -4.59% | -1.28% | |
| Corning | TECHNOLOGY | 4 | -8.31% | -3.83% | |
| Nuance | TECHNOLOGY | 4 | -5.70% | -11.42% | |
Qualcomm | TECHNOLOGY | 5 | 6.95% | 0.17% | |
| Skyworks | TECHNOLOGY | 5 | 5.83% | 1.92% | |
| Triquint | TECHNOLOGY | 5 | 1.44% | 1.37% | |
| Texas Instruments | TECHNOLOGY | 5 | -0.46% | 3.67% |
If we look at the data from the past 5 years, Apple remains strong and suppliers remain weak.
Corning and Qualcomm are particularly worrisome, given each has only posted gains in 1 of the past 5 Q3s.
Symbol | SECTOR | # Up | Q3 |
(of 5) | Average | ||
AAPL | TECHNOLOGY | 4 | 10.04% |
SUPPLIERS | |||
BRCM | TECHNOLOGY | 3 | 4.70% |
CRUS | TECHNOLOGY | 2 | 0.85% |
FCS | TECHNOLOGY | 2 | -0.95% |
GLW | TECHNOLOGY | 1 | -11.56% |
NUAN | TECHNOLOGY | 3 | 3.24% |
QCOM | TECHNOLOGY | 1 | 3.77% |
SWKS | TECHNOLOGY | 3 | 8.84% |
TQNT | TECHNOLOGY | 2 | 5.57% |
TXN | TECHNOLOGY | 2 | -3.10% |
So, while Apple benefits from pre-launch buzz, investors have historically taken a wait-and-see approach to suppliers.
With summer notoriously troublesome, you should take a similar approach this year. After all, patience is usually rewarded with a better buy opportunity ahead of fall.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in AAPL over the next 72 hours.
