Google Should Hit 90% Search Market Share

I read that Jason Calacanis thinks Google will have 90% market share in search within the next year. I don't know if it's going to be 90%, but I do think that Google's share of the search market (at least the English speaking search market) will not stop climbing.

I said this on Feb 4th, in the wake of the Microsoft bid for Yahoo!:

Let me start this post by saying that I don't think Microsoft will achieve its goal of obtaining some sort of balance and scale in the search market with an acquisition of Yahoo!  If you look at the share of search that Google has had over the past five years, it's an ever increasing line. I think that line will keep increasing, year after year, until Google has all of the search market (at least here in the US and the english speaking world). I don't think there's much that Yahoo! and/or Microsoft can do about it.

Jason and I disagree about a lot of things, but on this one, I think he's spot on.

Comments

[User 155004]

You can actually put your money where your mouth is and bet on 2008 search engine market share:

blog.oddhead.com/2008/.../

[Sherry Gil]

If Microsoft acquired Yahoo I strongly doubt that Google would continue to increase its share of the search market, on the contrary it would decline.

One of the reasons why Google currently dominates the search market is that the Google search engine, or search box, is carried by a multitude of websites, many in conjunction with the Google adsense.

Many times when I'm searching for information at a website, and I did not find exactly what I'm looking for, I tend to search again using the search box on the web page. And most of the search boxes I'm seeing is a Google search box. Just how many Yahoo, or MSN, search boxes have we seen on the multitude of websites out there?

Many will argue that Google's search algorithm is superior, than say Yahoo, which accounts for Google's popularity. I don't know if that were true, or not, but this argument reminds me of the old Betamax vs. VHS war.

Sony's Betamax was perceived to be superior, and had smaller footprint, than the VHS but the VHS format became more popular because it was widely adopted by tape player manufacturers when Sony refused to licensee its technology to others. Consumers were seeing VHS machines everywhere but very few Betamax players. So the VHS machines outsold the Betamax by a very wide margin.

Having said that, part of Google's popularity is that we are mostly seeing Google search boxes out there. But if we see less of the Google search boxes in websites, the more likely we would use the default search engine in our browsers - it's simply a matter of convenience.

And here lies the big problem: Microsoft dominates the PC operating system, including the browser market with its Internet Explorer. Microsoft can rename the combined MSN-Yahoo search engine as the new IE Search and make it the default search engine in IE, claiming that IE Search is just but a natural extension of the IE browser functionality. (Didn't Microsoft claimed before that the IE was a natural extension of the windows operating system?)

And it could be worse for Google. With Microsoft dominating the search market, with the combination of MSN and Yahoo, what would prevent Microsoft from "tweaking" its algorithm in a subtle way so that websites carrying the Google Adsense and Google search box would appear further down in search result listings? It would hit Google where it hurts most - its pocketbook.

Google hitting 90% of the search market? I don't so.

[Mark Duris]

I semi-agree with your statment regarding Google. I think 90% within a year is an overstatement, however I do agree that they will continue to eat away at Yahoo's share percentage.

I also think Microsoft should find something better to spend their money and time on. Sometimes you just have to let sleeping dogs lye.

[wpackof9]

Did anybody read that Google lost market share and Yahoo gained 1.5+% last month?

I'm sure back in the early 20th century many said Ford would be the dominant car manufacturer forever too. However, I think today GMC and Toyota would have something to say about that. Now, considering that Internet technology moves at light-speed compared to automotive technology... it should be a fair assessment that while Google is dominant now, 90% is pretty far fetch. Whether it be Yahoo/Microsoft, or some other unknown company, the use of search and the search market can change as easily as the entire world did from VHS to DVD movies. When was the last time you rented a VHS movie?

[o4]

Sherry,
I dont agree about an implicite and increasing usage of M$ search embedded in IE.
People will keep on saying let's google it and using google.com.
M$search = free drive with Ford
Gsearch = free drive woth Porsche

[Sleuth]

I have yet to hear anyone say "I Yahooed it or Microed it" for any query on the web. The bureaucracy at Microsoft would kill whatever creativity and agility still left in Yahoo. The merger would turn YHOO into a true micro-yahoo! Google is a steal at current level.

[Arun N]

Have you used a Yahoo or a Microsoft search engine, if so how many times ? How many times did you feel that you had to use a Yahoo or a Microsoft search engine to get to the results. I have. Many times. I can tell you that Google is definitely heads and shoulders above. But I do not agree with you that Google will hit 90% of the search market. Its amazing that Google is getting an increasing share of a growing market but Yahoo and Microsoft are on too many web pages already for Google to be able to get to 90%.

Besides you forget Google Toolbar, this invention has put the power of deciding the primary search engine in the consumers hands regardless of what Microsoft decides. Also Firefox has a 38% share and climbing share of the browser pie. So you can forget Microsoft posing any kind of serious challenge to Google in the search market. All it can do is limit Google in other areas by aggressively investing in them.