History has revealed that the best-performing stocks during the previous decades have been those that shelled out ever-increasing cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. Unfortunately for the individual investor and time-strapped financial advisor, most dividend analysis that we've seen out there is backward-looking - meaning it rests on what the company has done in the past: how long it has raised its dividend, etc. We're looking to change that view.
Although analyzing historical trends is important, we think assessing what may happen in the future is even more important. That is why we created a forward-looking assessment of dividend safety through our innovative, predictive dividend-cut indicator, the Valuentum Dividend Cushion™. We use our future forecasts for free cash flow and expected dividends and consider the company's net cash position to make sure that each company is able to pay out such dividend obligations to you -- long into the future. In this article, let's evaluate the investment merits of Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), as well as its dividend.
Return on Invested Capital
Alliance Resource Partners' Dividend
Alliance Resource Partners' distribution yield is above average, offering just above a 7.4% annual payout at recent price levels. Please click on the image below to get a feel for how we analyze a firm's dividend/distribution. You may have to resize your screen to get the best picture.
We think the safety of Alliance Resource Partners' distribution is GOOD (please see our definitions at the bottom of this article). We measure the safety of the dividend/distribution in a unique but very straightforward fashion. As many know, earnings can fluctuate in any given year, so using the payout ratio in any given year has some limitations. Plus, companies can often encounter unforeseen charges (read hiccups in operations), which makes earnings an even less-than-predictable measure of the safety of the dividend in any given year. We know that companies won't cut the dividend just because earnings have declined or they had a restructuring charge that put them in the red for the quarter (year). As such, we think that assessing the cash flows of a business allows us to determine whether it has the capacity to continue paying these cash outlays well into the future.
That has led us to develop the forward-looking Valuentum Dividend Cushion™. The measure is a ratio that sums the existing cash a company has on hand plus its expected future free cash flows over the next five years and divides that sum by future expected dividends over the same time period. We make some adjustments for utilities and MLPs, but the concept is still the same with them. Basically, if the score is above 1, the company has the capacity to pay out its expected future dividends/distributions. As income investors, however, we'd like to see a score much larger than 1 for a couple reasons: 1) the higher the ratio, the more "cushion" the company has against unexpected earnings shortfalls, and 2) the higher the ratio, the greater capacity a dividend-payer has in boosting the dividend in the future.
For Alliance Resource Partners, this score is 1.3, revealing the firm has a small "cushion" and the capacity to pay out its expected future dividends. The beauty of the Dividend Cushion is that it can be compared apples-to-apples across companies. Also, for firms that have a score below 1 or that have a negative score, the risk of a dividend cut in the future is certainly elevated. In fact, the Valuentum Dividend Cushion caught all dividend cuts in our non-financial coverage universe, except for one, which subsequently raised its dividend above pre-cut levels (meaning it shouldn't have cut it in the first place). The Dividend Cushion was also successful recently in predicting the dividend suspension at JC Penney (JCP) and the dividend cut at Arch Coal (ACI). We use our dividend cushion as a key decision component in choosing companies for addition to the portfolio of our Dividend Growth Newsletter (please see our links on the left sidebar for more information).
Now on to the potential growth of Alliance Resource Partners' dividend. As we mentioned above, we think the larger the "cushion" the larger capacity it has to raise the dividend. However, such dividend growth analysis is not complete until after considering management's willingness to increase the dividend. As such, we evaluate the company's historical dividend track record. If there have been no dividend cuts in 10 years, the company has a nice growth rate, and a nice dividend cushion, its future potential dividend growth would be EXCELLENT, which is the case for Alliance Resource Partners. And because capital preservation is also an important consideration, we assess the risk associated with the potential for capital loss (offering investors a complete picture). In Alliance Resource Partners' case, we think the shares are undervalued, so the risk of capital loss is LOW.
All things considered, we think Alliance Resource Partners is a slam-dunk dividend play. The firm is undervalued, its yield is attractive, and the dividend/distribution has strong growth prospects, in our opinion. In the spirit of transparency, our full report on Alliance Resource Partners and hundreds of other companies can be found here.
The glossary below shows how we rate a company's dividend/distribution in each key area: