Texas Instruments Down On Q1 Warning

Texas Instruments (TXN) shares are lower after the company last night reduced its Q1 revenue and EPS guidance. In its post-earnings conference call, the company blamed recent weakness in demand from a high-end 3G cell phone customers, which almost every analyst on the Street says is Nokia (NOK). The theory is that this is an issue involving high-end phones in Europe, and that demand in emerging markets is fine.

While Nokia has previously indicated that it will give some of its 3G handset business to Broadcom (BRCM) and and Infineon (IFX), neither is a factor yet; this seems to be a slowdown in demand from Nokia, rather than any loss of market share.

Richard Windsor, an analyst at Nomura, contends that the comments from Texas Instruments show that “the resilience of the handset market to the economic woes of developed markets came to an end yesterday.” In response to the new, he trimmed his forecast for 2008 global handset growth to 8% form 11%. Windsor cut revenue and EBITDA expectations for Q1 and 2008 for Nokia, Motorola (MOT) and Sony Ericsson. (SNE, ERIC)

Here’s a roundup of some other commentary from this morning on TXN, NOK, the chip sector and the mobile handset business:

• Daniel Berenbaum, Caris & Co.: “We expect Texas Instruments to weather the ongoing economic storm better than most, but we continue to recommend that investors avoid putting new money to work here and in the semiconductor space in general,” he writes. Berenbaum also says that while multiples in the semi group are near 10-year lows, “it’s unclear to what extent multiples will contract as investors come to grip with a weak demand environment. The industry has not seen a true demand-driven downturn since the 1990s.”
• Uche Orji, UBS: He warns that “TXN faces risk of further slowdown in wireless revenue as IFX and BRCM ramp at NOK in later part of 2008 and early 2009.” His price target drops to $32.50 from $33.50.
• John Pitzer, Credit Suisse: He notes that the company was “adamant” that the 3G issues were “macro related, and not a shift in share either for them or their customer.”
• John Lau, Jefferies: “Volatility in TI’s Nokia business would be a source of much uncertainty in the stock in 2008,” he writes. Lay cut his target price to $32, from $33.
• Tristan Gerra, Robert W. Baird: “Our checks indicate a significant downward reset for Nokia orders in both January and February, the result, in our view, from Nokia over-shipping last Q4, which impacted TI’s quarter,” he writs. Gerra says other Nokia suppliers are also likely to reduce forecasts.
• Cody Acree, Stifel Nicolaus: Acree notes that the TXN news “caused a signifcant concern that broader economic weakness may be finally having a more material impact on electronic demand.” But he thinks “this situation is relatively manageable,” and not likely to spread to other wireless or analog end markets.
• Christopher Danely, J.P. Morgan: He’s worries that there is more risk for the stock. “We expect additional downside to TI estimates driven by an analog inventory correction due to elevated inventory and decelerating demand,” he writes.
• Glen Yeung, Citigroup: “We expect other parts of the Nokia supply chain to face similar weakness, providing headline risk,” he writes. “TI pointed out that their shortfall was not share related, suggesting others are apt to feel the same pressure.”

In Tuesday’s trading:

• Texas Instruments shares today are off $1.51, or 5.1%, at $28.14.
• Nokia is down $1.67, or 5.1%, at $31.22.
• Motorola is up 21 cents at $9.75.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) is down 85 cents, or 2.2%, at $38.32.