Corn and soybean conditions declined for the third consecutive week as the Corn Belt continues to see hot and dry weather. Abundant rainfall is needed for conditions to improve. Expectations for a record corn crop in 2012 are all but eliminated and now the question is "How tight will stocks be?"
As of June 25, 2012 corn conditions have deteriorated to 56% of the crop in good or excellent condition, compared to 63% last week and 68% last year. 10% of the corn was silking which is above the five-year average of 3%. Corn prices increased by 5.3% over the past week ending at $6.31 per bushel and year-over-year prices have decreased by 5.8%.
As of the fourth week of June, 12% of U.S. soybeans have bloomed which is ahead of its five-year average of only 4%. Soybean conditions worsened as 15% is in very poor or poor condition compared to 12% last week. Soybeans in good or excellent condition have decreased by 3% from last week to 53%. Soybean prices increased by 7.1% over the past week ending at $14.82 per bushel and year-over-year prices increased by 12.3%.
Of the six primary spring wheat producing states, 57% of the wheat has headed by this week. Spring wheat conditions are favorable as 77% is in good or excellent condition and only 4% is in poor or very poor condition.
Winter wheat conditions continue to outpace last year's conditions with 54% of the winter wheat crop in good or excellent condition, a 19% increase from last year. Winter wheat in very poor or poor condition is at 17%, a 25% decrease from one year prior. As of the fourth week of June, 59% of the winter wheat has been harvested, compared to the five year average of only 27%. Wheat prices ended the week at $7.24 per bushel, a 14.9% increase from last week. Year-over-year wheat prices have increased 14.0%.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.