Is This the Double Bottom?

Looking at the chart of the S&P, a case can be made that it has made a double bottom around 1270, especially given the positive price/MACD divergence. However, the benefit of doubt still belongs to the bearish side until the S&P can make a higher high above around 1390, more preferably above 1406. Until the market is definitively in an uptrend I'll maintain the view that the January low will be broken to the downside. To that end, Tuesday's Fed-induced rally is the start of wave iv of 5 by my count. In other words, I'm trying to stake out a middle ground between the bulls who have call a bottom for weeks and the bears who are calling a continuation of the bear market for years.

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As far as PMs are concerned, my opinion has been whipsawing around. My original short term correction target was 470-475 on the Amex Gold BUGS Index (HUI), which I thought was reached when the intraday low for the HUI reached 477 on Mar 4th. For what it's worth, at the time I had a short term target around 540 for the HUI. While the momentum indicators for HUI and the metals themselves are still pointing down, I still believe we're in the most explosive stage of this advance, therefore, it's better to err on the long side.

Comments

[Krakatoa:]

The answer is no ! more pain to come.

2008 Mar 13 07:55 AM

[Kevin Kennedy:]

Although the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 just broke below their January lows, it wasn't by much and a double bottom is possible on those indices as well. The only problem is that the Fed is late to the party and the economic data points continue to deteriorate. We might need to get closer to Nasdaq 2,000 and see some more extreme panic selling before a true bottom is carved out.

Kevin Kennedy
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2008 Mar 13 10:58 AM

[Walter Mundell:]

The answer is YES. But volatility will remain.

2008 Mar 13 03:59 PM

[Manifestor:]

I think it is, but it will take a few attempts (about three months) before it climbs the 1290/1406 wall of worry!

2008 Mar 13 05:50 PM