I've been way too optimistic.
But it's true -- going by the numbers, I was too bullish in my expectations for the indices this year. My mid-year and year end expectations (see this post for the 2008 forecast) was for a 10-15% selloff by mid year (video here).
The market's surpassed those numbers before the first quarter was even over. And, while we are now in oversold rally mode, as of the beginning of the week, just about all of the major US markets were already below my targets for July 1:
There you have it. My biggest flaw: Too Bullish!