Warning Signs of a Modern Depression: See 1990 Japan 46 comments
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Oil at $110 and an ever falling dollar seem to make stagflation a probability and hyperinflation a real threat. I believe these alarming conditions are merely an inflationary blow off that punctuates the desperate actions of an irrelevant Federal Reserve; like a star going nova before imploding. Although the Federal Reserve has changed the bearings and switched to 100 octane on the printing presses, it is not enough to stem the incipient deflation from the collapsing real estate bubble and its attendant economic shock wave.
We have entered 2008 in much the same way the seemingly invincible Japanese entered 1990, teetering on bankruptcy. Japan’s banking system was an accident waiting to happen by allowing sub-prime, and even defunct business, loans to be held as good receivables. Their Central Bank oversaw such practices and no doubt assumed the bad debt would be consumed by future growth. Sound familiar? Our Federal Reserve presided over substantially the same delusion during our real estate bubble by allowing banks to sell loans at AAA rates to sub-prime borrowers. The good debt was then wrapped into tidy little institutional packages and sold as AAA paper, because it was mortgage backed. When the credit quality of all that “good debt” is finally market to market, money simply evaporates and the shock wave resonates far past ground zero. Bear Stearns’ (BSC) epitaph is being written with sub prime ink. If the #5 investment bank is on life support, how healthy are those beneath them?
The exceptionally aggressive and a-historic action from our government is just getting started; at least it sounds better than “panic has set in”. The procession of interest rate cuts and emergency actions is in response to the scent of deflation now permeating the Washington D.C. muster stations. The first stimulus plan will roll off the press in May to resuscitate a drowning consumer but it’s far too little to have any meaningful effect. As well, deficit spending might otherwise restore sanity, as it did during WWII, if our economy wasn’t the voracious credit-hungry fiat monster that it has become. In our case, there is no surplus from which to draw these rebates - only recycled debt; and our deficit is becoming an almost meaningless number. The most that rebates or more deficit spending can do now is calm the public on the way down. As J.M. Keynes might put it, we lack enough real money to support aggregate demand in a functioning economy and more debt just won’t do. Credit can be free but it will only further indenture a country already drowning in debt.
Although the S&P estimate of 300 billion may in near the mark in terms of the actual failed debt, the cause of the binge remains - an absence of organic growth. Artificially inflating our entire residential real estate market and then financing the margin with bad debt is evidence of desperation, not creativity. Our capacity to foster organic growth has been waning as we lose share to more competitive nations or simply outsource our domestic capacity away. We accepted the economic growth from our past bubbles as organic, and we pledged that as collateral to borrow our standard of living. Now we find out that it was mostly financial engineering. Each bubble’s pop replaced lost money with debt and we agreed to the notion of more credit somehow equaling growth. Inflating our most precious asset class, however, was the swan song of the big bubbles and the buck has stopped.
We’re now faced with the unpleasant task of cleaning up and getting back to real growth. In so doing our standard of living will be reduced because we simply cannot afford it. In reality, we haven’t been able to afford it for decades. We are in debt to ourselves to the tune of 65 trillion in unfunded mandates and to our foreign neighbors to the tune of 6 trillion. We are too far behind the curve to “grow” our way out of our debt unless we really get creative and annex Mexico with strict enforcement of payroll deductions.
America has been balancing between inflation and deflation only because the Feds are driving up the cost of pulp by driving down the value of the greenback. The fact that the asset deflating has such deep and diffused financial roots creates an insurmountable void far greater than any other asset class could. Home mortgages are the center of our financial universe. The shock wave from the deflation is so magnified by the leverage that it is overwhelming the opposing flood of fiat. While the headlines argue about whether or not we’re in a recession, we have already slipped into a deflationary spiral:
1) Deterioration of balance sheets.
2) Decline in investment and consumption.
3) Decline in employment and wages.
4) Return to 1.
1990 Japan is the most recent example of this spiral and, despite very aggressive measures to reflate their burst bubble, it cost them ten years. They cut interest rates from 6% to 0%, added over one trillion dollars over 10 stimulus packages, cut taxes, gave away shopping vouchers, bailed out banks and probably even threw in a few Ginsu knives. In the end all they got was a substantially weaker government, one now even deeper in debt. Because Japan’s riotous run up included simultaneous real estate and stock bubbles it was an order of magnitude greater than our real estate bubble alone. That and our abhorrence for savings will most likely get us out in only three years. Look for the dollar to stabilize, not from confidence in our own government but because Europe and the rest of the world will be forced to turn on their presses to shore us up. We are such voracious consumers that America herself is now too big to fail.
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This article has 46 comments:
Contrary to other "safe" contributors, you tell it like it is.
Most people are still in big time denial. Its conditioning over the last 5 year bull market, indeed over the last 30 years. It's different this time. Much different.
Also, with so many inflation indicators among the many deflation indicators, I find it challenging to make a confident prediction of a general move in either direction.
The one overwhelming qualifier I do see is 'poorer.'
The US and other world countries will help to fix this issue. The bears are saying that this is an unsurmountable problem. No! Difficult Yes. Never ending No!
May I suggest a $2500 car ( TaTa Motors-TTM )...geothermal, and perhaps wind energy (GE already with billions in contract for them ). Cheer up, sleepy Jeanie...we can do this.
On the other hand, US is efficient, highly productive and the S&P500 plunged 20%. PE Ratio is around 17X, not cheap, but hardly expensive.
And by the way, FED is much better than BOJ...
Time to buy stocks...
VennData says
"I'm not sure Europe and Japan will be forced to " support us."
I don't think they'll support us because they like us, but rather because if we fall, they will be severely impacted; I don't follow this sector, but the Japanese automakers will be crippled if we stop buying their cars (as would the German car companies).
Maybe someone else can chime in why it's in the rest of the worlds interest to help the US get through this (or not?)
Thanks. Great article and insightful comments.
A
The only out I see is massive investment and a national goal to repair infrastructure and alternative energy (not GB's version of ethanol). At least there is a payoff in this but it probably won't happen until we have a new president.
True enough, but how will APPL (and others) who sell consumer trinkets will do when
1) inflation / commodity prices take a huge bite out of discretionary spending
2) people can no longer pull money out of their homes like they have been since 2001 to fund their consumption.
3) with a slowing economy, hunkering down becomes standard, resulting in further trimming. Does anyone think we won't have serious layoffs in many sectors over the next few months?
As good as these companies are, I'm not sure what the right time to buy them is. But I'll bet APPL will be lower in a few quarters after a few revenue misses. Last thing people will be buying is a sexy iphone or a 3rd ipod...
Talk to anyone who lived through the Great D. The orgy of consumption we've grown up on could well evaporate. I think people are taking a hard look at their lifestyle, and looking at how they can trim back...
I do not profess to know ‘jack’ about finance.
I do have some common sense answers.
a. Sub prime…forget those fools. Caveat Emptor is the name of the game. They screwed themselves. Let them pay the price.
b. Everyone claims price controls didn’t work. Nonsense. Big corporations love to chant this. Their prices go up by ‘harmlessly’ passing on everything. They thrive on this country. Let them help pay the bills around here.
c. The FED is unconstitutional. Either kill it or make it stick to its alleged job: control inflation. Period.
d. Let the moronically greedy banks fail. New ones will gobble them up and be stronger yet.
e. Greed must eventually pay. Let it do so now…at its own expense, without government intervention.
f. It’s too bad we cannot put a halt to the present administration. As for the future wannabes, this bunch of misfits and mental cripples will do more damage then what we have now. Jefferson was right. He is the only one I would vote for as president.
g. Lawyers may make good lawyers. They make disgusting administrators. Scrap all fiduciary laws and write reasonable ones.
h. Stop the madness: vote all politicians and judges out of office.
i. Add one amendment to the constitution for voting: NO CANDIDATE. This forces the dictatorial parties to rethink who they will present as candidate. In the interim, utilize the president pro-tem of the senate with a panel of all parties to ensure nothing will pass except absolute necessities.
j. Bring all and I mean ALL troops home within 90 days. Cost savings alone will invalidate the need for additional taxes.
k. Force the Treasury, BLS, the FED, et al to tell the truth. Reinstate realistic and truthful reports.
l. Worry about the infrastructural mess among government agencies later.
We. Want. Something. Here. Now.
Yes We Can.
We. Want. Something. Here. Now.
Cargo Cult is the Cure.
Higher Taxes will cause the bounty to become reality.
We. Want. Something. Here. Now.
Japan was not this stupid.
The problem with every administration going back 33 years is that there has been no energy policy. Ted Kennedy doesn't want windmills 5 miles off his coast. The huge oil find of the mid 1970's off California has been capped since the mid 70's without a drop of oil produced.
The Senate and House prefer to spend their time interviewing Baseball players on steroids than they do in coming up with a concerted National effort to become as enery independent as possible. Why we are not equipping every high transmission line in this country with a wind turbine is mind boggling. Why we are not looking to create hydropower anywhere we can is distresing. Just think of the number of jobs that would be created here in the United States. We need government incentives and government mandates to achieve this.
The problems in the financial markets are almost entirely because of greed. It is similiar to the reason why Enron, Adelphia, etc occurred. Corporate CEO's need to spend less time golfing and attending black tie affairs and need to stay home and attend to managing their companies. We do need external board of directors on the boards of financial companies. The brokers create products to pump up commissions. They create extremely high risk products and peddle them to unsuspecting individuals.
The bankers go along for 10 years making a nice profit for their shareholders, but then want to get that last additional dollar in profits. And they do what they always do. They take undue risk and it smashes in their face. Their Yale and Harvard degrees become worthless. They need to teach how not to be greedy and learn what risk-reward is. Is that stretching of standards worth the added risk rather than incremental potential reward for an undue amount of risk.
Those that do not perform need to be dismissed. Seven and eight figure compensation packages need to be eliminated and contracts need to be for pay for performance. But not on an annual basis but over time. Performance over 5 or ten years.
Our government also needs to stop working like it's a beauty contest and start governing. They need to be more efficient. Corruption and incompentence needs to be removed in government as well as in the corporate penthouse. They need to work like a stellar corporation and not a nonproductive entity that strangles those that create all new jobs in this country.
The writeoffs on the books of the financial stocks should be borne by the shareholders of those companies. However, the Federal Reserve, the SEC and other regulatory agencies need to be more proactive in mandating tighter standards of publically owned companies. When they allow 100% loans to value; when they allow real estate brokers to receive commissions and then also loan the funds to borrowers with ridiculous underwriting standards, the regulators need to step in and not allow it. Where have the Federal and State bank regulators been. Why are we not holding the bank regulators accountable. Is it because they are not accountable to anyone because they have government jobs. Just like in the corporate world, they need to lose their jobs if they are not doing theirs.
We must eliminate greed. Once we do, once the Federal government starts working properly, Republicans and Democrats alike, we can return to being leaders in the world.
Corporate America generally suceeds in spite of our political leaders. With a lttle help from them, just imagine what we could achieve.
Let me also remind the writer where th DJIA average is today compared to where it was in 1990. Compare that to Japan. Look at the Japanese market today and compare it to 1990. There is no comparison. The U.S. markets are miles ahead. And we would be further ahead if all CEO's and our government leaders acted like Warren Buffet and Steve Jobs and not like the former Governors of New Jersey or New York.
Eliminate greed and corruption from Corporate leaders and Government leaders and have them concentrate on Energy independence and we will have gone a long way in improving life in these United States. For that matter just eliminate the stupidity from doing their jobs and we'll probably get there.
I don't think China has any interests in taking over USA since no Chinese want to feed 300 MM lazy fat a$$.
Your worst enemies are just next to you, 6MM jews controlling and manipulating US financial. media and eco like they did in German before WWII, half population being black and Hispanics by 2038. The mess (riots, stealing, waiting for hangouts, etc.) after Katrina in New Orlan, LA just gave you a preview if you still not wake up.
China is more busy in re-building itself and restoring its 5000 years civilization.
The only thing China may do is just to watch USA destroying and sinking itself.
You say we will realise the need for alternative energy soon. I agree. And it must be cheap and create little pollution, yes.
How about this: it's already here uncle, called nuclear energy aka the nuke (courtesy Iranian / North Korean scientists)? That takes care of all household / industrial electricity needs.
If North Americans can learn from North Koreans or North Iranians for not driving 300 yards to pick up a soda perhaps global warming will become a joke like Bush also?
phobos.apple.com/WebOb...
If there is a depression ahead of the US then a realistic guesstimate is anywhere up to 10 years. It will hit and it will hit hard.
On the matter of energy I think there are people sitting on large monopolies of petrol that have a vested interest in keeping it that way. Let's not kid ourselves, alternative energy sources are out there and many more new ideas ...why aren't they being used already? Where are the solid plans to start implementing cleaner, more efficient energies and to begin the switch over?
Are we going to wait until we have a real energy crisis and are left scratching our heads wondering how to get to work?
Looks like most people are bears...
More wars, more deficit spending, more corruption at every level!
With McCain, we get more of the same.
And really, the Bush Depression will work out quite well for some folks.
first, greed is good. you state "The problems in the financial markets are almost entirely because of greed." i agree; indeed they are. but that also is the same greed that helped your and the rest of America's 401ks return strong performance in so many other years. i believe it's inconsistent to state in the same sentence "we must eliminate greed" and "...we can return to being leaders in the world." we became leaders of the world in no small part because of greed. sure there are many other factors, but without incentive we don't excel in innovation and don't strive for greater efficiencies. bright minds from around the world come to study and work in the US because of the prospects for success, often measured in monetary terms.
second, when we remove financial and building company stocks all else is not fine. i agree that dividends and stock buybacks have been strong, but that was then. stocks price in what is to be, and not what was. we already earned the buybacks and dividends of 2007 with the stock appreciation seen over the prior 4 years (DOW up 86% from trough in 2003 to peak in 2007).
in discussing what is to be, it's inappropriate to dissociate what's happening in financial firms and homebuilders from the rest of the economy. people used home equity loans to buy boats, cars and pay off credit cards. it's fair to even say that some of the health you cite for other industries was on borrowed money, driven by unsustainable gains and confidence derived elsewhere. when that goes away, and you throw in layoffs, missed mortgage payments and inflation, it's easy to see how iphone sales might weaken a tad.
i agree with most of your comments about government, as well as financial stock losses being born by shareholders, but i don't think government is to blame for lending practices. i do think that lenders were greedy and shortsighted in their loose practices, but consumers were just the same. people made conscious decisions to buy homes they couldn't afford because they were silly enough to think that real estate only goes up. shame on them. of course i feel sorry for the family that's put on the street, but if you can't afford to own something you shouldn't be buying it. i don't subscribe to the excuse that homeowners didn't understand that their teaser rate went away in a year and all of the sudden their payments jump up. it's all there in the payment schedule; they saw it (okay fine, there were probably a relatively small # out there that didn't read their docs). people just expected there would be appreciation and a refinancing, neither of which ended up being the case.
the government doesn't bail out the public from doing countless other self-destructive and downright dumb actions, so why should this be different? when things go up too fast, it's healthy and right for them to come down some as well.
1) It's prime brokerage unit handles the largest amount of hedge fund assets of any bank. How will hedge funds deal with the uncertainty of its prime brokerage unit during a time when many funds have massive leverage?
2) It's clearing unit is the best in the world. Certainly it's not going to disappear, but integrating the unique culture of BSC employees into another bank with prove very challenging.
3) It's derivatives and collateralized securities business, which serves as a key player with institutions. The total derivatives oustanding is approaching $200 trillion, for a growth of around 500% since 2000. On a net basis we do not know what this exposure is. But we do know that over $30 trillion of this is in credit default swaps. Because of the loss of confidence in the financial system, institutions that have used CDS to hedge against interest rates cuts have gotten burned.
Down the road, it might actually improve the financial system to have butchered the one of the top players in derivative and MBS. But that will be a small concession for the devastation that will only continue to increase. The risk of a global financial meltdown due to derivatives alone is high and increasing by the day. At the very best of scenarios, the unwinding process is going to be destructive for many funds and financial institutions. The Fed is going to have to bail them all out. And of course that means the dollar will sink further.
There is no way out of this mess. The Fed can continue to print money and exchange it for worthless MBS debt as collateral (as announced during its meeting yesterday). But that will only hasten the dollar's decline. And while it is doubtful that banks will close their doors due to lack of dollars, at some point, our currency might not be worth the paper it's printed on. You should expect a further 20-30% decline in the dollar at minimum. Regardless, the dollar will remain quite low for many years.
And if you think the economy will get better in a few years, you will be wrong. Only the government's twisting of data will make things look better; the same charade we have witnessed since the Internet correction. What happened to all of the "experts" who were preaching how the economy was so strong? "Just look at the data-unemployment is under 5%, GDP is 3%" etc. These individuals should be holding their heads in shame. You know who they are-teh Fed, Washington officials, journalists, TV hosts. In fact, they should all resign and apologize to the people.
In my estimation, inflation and interest rates will reach double digits over the next few years. The real inflation numbers are already around 8% if they were calculated correctly.
Ask yourself these questions:
1) Why did the Fed stop reporting the most critical indicator of inflation last spring, M3?
2) Why won't Washington disclose more transperancy on the asusmptions it uses for hedonics?
3) Why did Washington shut down the website clearing house for economic data in March, economicindicators.gov?
4) Why is the FDIC increasing its staff and why have they increased FDIC insurance fees to banks?
At the end of the day, America needs good jobs, wage increases in excess of inflation and solid employee benefits. Only then will household savings materialize. This implies a restructuring of free trade policies and healthcare. This mandates a full understanding of the problems and leadership to execute change. The Fed can provide banks with liquidity, but that isn't a real solution. It's desperation. What is needed is more accountability and transparency in the financial system.
warheads does make us a better friend than enemy. Much of the world
will indeed show monetary mercy to the mercenary nation.
So do you agree?
1. Gold back up again?
2. Oil up again?
3. Dollar down again?
4. Long and deep recession?
Thanks for your observations.
See if you understand this:
1. Nuclear plants cost US$2bn apiece of build but next to nothing to run except the man pressing the buttons, and the dog who stops the man from pressing them. (Not just monetary costs, but also fuel)
2. Coal plants / diesel generators are much cheaper to build but gulps a ridiculous amount of fuel. This is why Chinese factories are working at under-capacity. Not because they are inefficient, but there just isn't enough fuel to go around! Nor can they afford US$2bn nuclear plants - the equivalent of 200 factories @ US$10m.
3. Hydrogen is fine - if we can make it 10 times more efficient soon.
But this is still not the point. Which is...
WE ARE MOVING BACK TO RAIL TRAVEL...VERY HIGH-SPEED RAIL TRAVEL AS SUCH.
TGV, bullet train are going up to 500 km/h. This is just half of 747s at 900km/h, yet when you consider (1) check-in times, (2) commuting time to airports, (3) endless security checks, we are probably head to head. This means that trains which run on electricity will overtake 747s which run on 55,000 gallons of fuel per tank.
===========
Global warming can be a scam, yes, but if it is not we are quite doomed. If you are to choose between (1) a million dollars + peace of mind and (2) two million but melting ice, I think the choice is quite clear.
A ten-year Japanese-style depression would help the world cut down on CO2 ten years - enough for Chinese factories to start shopping for GE nuclear plants.
On Mar 19 01:54 AM Dragon Master wrote:
> Hey Donalddon5.
>
> I don't think China has any interests in taking over USA since no
> Chinese want to feed 300 MM lazy fat a$$.
>
> Your worst enemies are just next to you, 6MM jews controlling and
> manipulating US financial. media and eco like they did in German
> before WWII, half population being black and Hispanics by 2038. The
> mess (riots, stealing, waiting for hangouts, etc.) after Katrina
> in New Orlan, LA just gave you a preview if you still not wake up.
>
>
> China is more busy in re-building itself and restoring its 5000 years
> civilization.
>
> The only thing China may do is just to watch USA destroying and sinking
> itself.
Let's see now....This administration, since 2000, has siphoned (stolen) from the SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND, which funds Medicare, over $1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS. All of the other Trust Funds (Trust being the operative word here) that they have taken taxpayer's money are the MILITARY RETIREMENT TRUST FUND, the FEDERAL EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT TRUST FUND, the FEDERAL EMPLOYEE HOSPITALIZATION TRUST FUND, the RAILROAD RETIREMENT TRUST FUND, the AMERICAN INDIAN TRUST FUNDS....AND MORE!!! There is NO PLAN to pay it back and NO WAY to pay it back!!!
Now pit that with the Trillions of Dollars borrowed from FOREIGN COUNTRIES such as Japan (over $600 BILLION DOLLARS), Communist China (over $300 BILLION DOLLARS), the United Kingdom (over $200 BILLION DOLLARS) and NINE MORE COUNTRIES. These figures are based on data ending in 2006!!!
I am sure that they have increased, especially borrowing from China, in addition to the interest payments that we have set up. ALL OF THESE LOANS are backed by U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND OTHER HARD AMERICAN ASSETS!!!
HOWEVER, THE AMERICAN TAXPAYERS ARE OUT ON A LIMB INDEFINITELY...AND FOR MOST...DURING THE REST OF THEIR LIFETIME!!! THANK YOU GEORGE W. BUSH, DICK CHENEY, AND ALL OF THE REPUBLICANS THAT INITIATED THIS!!! I WONDER WHO HAS MADE ALL OF THIS MONEY...NOT US REGULAR JOES AND JOSIES!!!!
Additionally, aside from the TAX INCENTIVES THAT GEORGE W. BUSH set up in 2000 for U.S. Corporations to go abroad and "globalize", On August 12, 2008, Reuters reports that — Most U.S. and foreign corporations doing business in the United States avoid paying any federal income taxes, despite trillions of dollars worth of sales, a government study released on Tuesday said.
The Government Accountability Office said 72 percent of all foreign corporations and about 57 percent of U.S. companies doing business in the United States PAID NO FEDERAL INCOME TAX for at least one year between 1998 and 2005.
More than half of FOREIGN companies and about 42 percent of U.S. companies PAID NO FEDERAL INCOME TAX for two or more years in that period, the report said.
During that time corporate sales in the United States totaled $2.5 TRILLION, according to Democratic Sens. Carl Levin of Michigan and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, who requested the GAO study.
The report did not name any companies. The GAO said corporations escaped paying federal income taxes for a variety of reasons including operating losses, tax credits and an ability to use transactions within the company to shift income to low tax countries.
With the U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT this year running close to the record $413 billion that was set in 2004 and projected to hit a record $486 BILLION NEXT YEAR, lawmakers are looking to plug holes in the U.S. tax code and generate more revenues.
Dorgan in a statement called the report "a shocking indictment of the current tax system." Levin said it made clear that "too many corporations are USING TAX TRICKERY to send their profits overseas and avoid paying their fair share in the United States."
Note: (YES LIKE HALLIBURTON (and it's many subsidiaries like Black Water) who sent their money to the Cayman Islands, but now has moved the the United Arab Emerits from Houston....Halliburton also defied U.S. Sanctions against Iran and have multi-year, multi-Billion Dollar contracts with Iran to renovate their old oil refineries and build new ones for them. (Congressional Record, (Senate) Feb. 7, 2005, pgs. S1051 to S1053) The United Arab Emerits has free trade with Iran. By the end of 2006, Dick Cheney's stock options in Halliburton had increased over 4000% since he took office in 2000!!!!
The study showed about 28 percent of large FOREIGN corporations, those with more than $250 MILLION in assets, DOING BUSINESS IN THE UNITED STATES.... paid no federal income taxes in 2005 despite $372 BILLION DOLLARS in gross receipts, the senators said. About 25 percent of the LARGEST U.S. COMPANIES PAID NO FEDERAL INCOME TAX in 2005 despite $1.1 trillion in gross sales that year, they said.
So, IN CASE THE AMERICAN TAXPAYER IS A LITTLE UNDER-EDUCATED, the fox has been guarding the hen house....and us hens AND ROOSTERS are, to say the least, up the creek without a paddle!!!
THANK YOU GEORGE W. BUSH, DICK CHENEY, AND THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. NOW YOU WANT TO SEND IN A 71 YEAR OLD "YES MAN", MARRIED TO A MULTI-MILLIONAIRESS TO CHANGE WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED TO US???
NO THANKS!!!!