Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (3/17/08): Fed Action, Market Action

Includes: BSC, JPM
by: Barry Ritholtz

Hey, look who's on Kudlow & Co. Monday night, from 7:00pm to 7:30pm. Also on the show Art Laffer, Andy Busch and Vince Farrell.

Here are the talking points I sent in:

The Fed is acting appropriately to avert an entire financial system meltdown.

Whether they will be successful is as of yet unknown. As we are so fond of saying, there will be costs: Financial, economic, psychological, and prestige-wise to this debacle. (More Dollar pressure, Gold & Oil both up).

Market action Monday was positive: Bad news, big gap down, positive close. It is only one day, and it is likely in anticipation of FOMC Tuesday. We continue to look at this as a modest rally.

1) This was not a “bail out,” at Two Dollars/share, it was an "Orderly Liquidation.

2) JPM (NYSE:JPM) looks to have gotten a great deal – the Fed is actually taking on the first $30Billion in risk; Unless Bear's (NYSE:BSC) losses exceed that, it’s a winner for JPM.

3) The Fed took this risk because JPM could not possibly have done the due diligence over the weekend. (Goldman (NYSE:GS) just took a $3 billion hit).

4) A bailout for Wall Street may not be very palatable during a recession in a election year. Thus, we should expect a major Housing/Mortgage bailout along any day now. Cost: Very expensive.

5) JPM gets a terrific scapegoat for the next 4 (or 8 or 12) quarters to blame for all of their crappy paper, leveraged risk, and counter-party obligations.

6) The impact of the credit crunch is -- disturbingly -- showing up in places you would never expect. Headline:

20% Of Startups Can’t Get To Their Cash.

7) Lehman's chart looks shockingly like Bear Stearns chart.