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Research In Motion (RIMM) favors the short side off its post-earnings trade tonight, regardless of a decline or gain in its earnings-driven after-hours movement.

In the data we've collected over nine years, RIMM has seen earnings-driven after-hours declines following 20 quarterly reports. Of those trades, the stock recorded a deeper move into the red in the following day's regular session in 14 events, or 70% of the time. In the other five events the stock cut or reversed its after-hours decline the following day. A solid short play on any drop tonight.

On the upside, RIMM has recorded an after-hours gain following an earnings event in 13 quarters, and in five events the stock moved more aggressively to the upside the next day. In two plus-side moves the stock held the same after-hours gain into the next-day's close, and in the six other quarters the stock narrowed its evening move. With the stock consistently struggling to add to its evening gains in next-day action more risk tolerant shorts may want to eye any upside ceilings that develop tonight.

RIMM is due with its Q1 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Capital IQ are expecting the company to report a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $3.03 billion.

Here's the long-term history:

  • On March 29, 2012, RIMM declined 2.1% in evening trade after missing Q4 estimates. The stock reversed direction the following day, closing the March 30 regular session up a hefty 7%.
  • On Dec. 15, 2011, RIMM dropped 7.4% in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations but also setting its Q4 guidance below Street estimates. The stock headed even lower the next day, closing the Dec. 16 regular session down 11.1%.
  • On Sept. 15, 2011, RIMM cratered 18.5% in evening trade after missing Q2 expectations and setting its Q3 guidance mostly in-line with estimates. The stock added slightly to its downside the next day, closing the Sept. 16 regular session off 19%.
  • On June 16, 2011, RIMM tumbled 13.8% in after-hours trade after missing Q1 revenue estimates, approving a stock buyback, and setting its guidance below expectations. The stock was hammered lower the following day, closing the June 17 regular session down 21.4%.
  • On March 24, 2011, RIMM slumped 10.6% in after-hours action after missing Q4 revenue estimates and setting its Q1 outlook mostly below the Street view. The stock moved deeper in the red the next day, closing the March 25 regular session down 11.2%.
  • On Dec. 16, 2010, RIMM gained 2.3% in evening trade after beating Wall Street's Q2 expectations. The stock cut its upside the following day, closing the Dec. 17 regular session up 1.6%.
  • On Sept. 16, 2010, RIMM advanced 3% in night trade after posting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock lost most of its gains the following day, closing the Sept. 17 regular session up a modest 0.5%.
  • On June 24, 2010, RIMM shed 4.4% in evening trade after missing Q1 revenue expectations, beating on earnings, and setting mixed guidance. The stock was punched lower the following day, closing the June 25 regular session down 10.8%.
  • On March 31, 2010, RIMM declined 3.8% in after-hours trade after missing Q4 expectations and setting mixed guidance. The stock headed deeper in the red the next day, closing the April 1 regular session down 7.3%.
  • On Dec. 17, 2009, RIMM charged 12.2% higher in evening action on the back of better-than-expected results and guidance. The issue saw some of its gain cut back the next day, closing the Dec. 18 regular session up 10.3%.
  • On Sept. 24, 2009, RIMM tumbled 11.5% in the after-hours session after missing revenue expectations and setting its guidance below the Street view. The stock was hammered lower in the following regular session, ending the Sept. 25 trade down 17%.
  • On June 18, 2009, RIMM slipped 0.4% in after-hours trade after beating earnings expectations, meeting on revenue, and setting guidance that straddled the Street view. The stock continued to head lower the following day, closing the June 19 regular session down 4.9%.
  • On April 2, 2009, RIMM charged 22.5% higher in after-hours trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. It narrowed its upside slightly the following day, ending the April 3 regular session up 20.7%.
  • On Dec. 18, 2008, RIMM edged up 0.4% in after-hours trade after topping Street estimates and setting its guidance mostly above the Street view. The stock soared higher the next day, rising 11.4% by the closing bell on Dec. 19.
  • On Sept. 25, 2008, RIMM declined 19% in after-hours trade after missing earnings expectations and setting weaker-than-expected guidance. The stock tumbled further the following day, closing the Sept. 26 regular session down 27.5%.
  • On June 25, 2008, RIMM declined 7.8% in evening trade after missing earnings expectations and setting weaker-than-expected guidance. The stock tumbled deeper in the red the next day, closing with a 13.2% decline.
  • On April 2, 2008, RIMM firmed 4.2% in night trade after topping Q4 expectations and setting its Q1 guidance above the then-current Street view. The stock pushed higher the next day, closing out the April 3 regular session up 5.8%.
  • On Dec. 20, 2007, RIMM surged 11.4% in after-hours trade after beating on Q3 expectations and setting its Q4 outlook above the Street view. The stock saw its gains slip just a bit in the Dec. 21 regular session, ending the day up 10.8%.
  • On Oct. 4, 2007, RIMM fell 1.7% during evening trading after beating with Q2 results and guiding above. The stock rebounded to gain 12.7% the next day.
  • On June 28, 2007, RIMM jumped 16.4% in after hours when the company easily topped Q1 estimates and set a stock split. Shares rose further the following day to end the regular session up 20.7%.
  • On April 11, 2007, the stock fell 6.6% in night trading after the company missed with Q1 sales but topped with EPS. The loss increased to 8.1% the next day.
  • On Dec. 21, 2006, RIMM jumped 5.7% in after-hours when the company beat Q3 estimates. However, shares couldn?t muster the strength to hold onto those gains and slipped into the red the next day. It closed the following day?s regular session down 2.7%.
  • On Sept. 28, 2006, shares surged 19.3% in the evening hours after the company beat with preliminary Q2 figures and offered an optimistic view for Q3. The stock logged a matching 19.3% gain the next day as well.
  • On June 29, 2006, RIMM jumped 5.7% in evening trade after topping Q1 estimates and guiding Q2 in line with expectations. The shares held those gains the next day, ending up 5.7%.
  • On April 6, 2006, RIMM dropped 4.5% in after hours when the company missed Q4 estimates and guided Q1 below Street views. The shares fell more the following day, ending the regular session down 5.4%.
  • On December 21, 2005, RIMM gained 6.3% in night trade after beating Q3 expectations and forecasting Q4 EPS above Street views. The shares rallied further the next day, jumping 10.5% in regular-hours trade.
  • On Sept. 28, 2005 RIMM slimmed down 3.6% in evening trade after the company topped analysts' expectations and guided mostly in-line. Sellers added tot he downside on Sept. 29, sending the stock to a 9.3% decline by the closing bell.
  • RIMM fell 4.6% on the night of June 29, 2005, after besting the Street view on Q1 results and guiding for Q2. It narrowed its downside in the June 30 regular session, closing down 2.8%.
  • On April 5, 2005 RIMM tumbled 5.8% in evening trade after the company missed revenue expectations. The stock saw the bulk of the downside evaporate on April 6 as RIMM closed the bell-to-bell session down a mere 1.9%.
  • RIMM slid 4.1% in the Dec. 21, 2004 after-hours session after the company beat expectations but set its forward quarterly sales view below Street estimates. The stock slightly cut its downside the next day, closing bell-to-bell trade off 4%.
  • RIMM slid 3.7% the night of Sept. 30, 2004 after the company reported better-than-expected results but set its revenue range that at the low end could miss Street estimates. The stock cut its losses in next day trade, however, ending the Oct. 1 regular session down 3.3%.
  • Prior to the Sept. 30-Oct. 1 event, RIMM had seen wider next-day moves following its last two after-hours earnings reports.
  • Back on June 29, 2004 RIMM jumped 11.2% in after-hours trade following better-than-expected results and guidance. It closed the June 30 regular session up a more aggressive 15.2%.
  • On April 7, 2004 RIMM dipped 2% in after-hours trade after beating expectations and hiking its outlook. The stock closed the following day's bell-to-bell trade down 2.3%.
Source: Research In Motion Leans Firmly In The Short Camp Following Evening Earnings Reports