"Though most analysts have a rosy outlook on gold in 2012, it has not fared well in election years. The first half of 2012 may see a pullback in the GLD ETF and this provides a perfect opportunity to make money on an options play."
This particular options play was bearish and it went like this:
The Options Play
Since we are expecting a down turn the first half of the year and then a possible increase to new highs, we are looking at a Bear Put Spread strategy like this:
- Buy a September 2012 '165' put option (priced at $9.45)
- Sell a September 2012 '164' put option (priced at $9.05)
- Net Debit to start: $0.40
- Maximum profit: $0.60
The stock was trading at 165.65 March 6th
Today GLD is trading at 153.13 so reversing the trade, here is how it came out:
- Sell the September 165 put for: $13.70
- Buy the September 164: $13.05
- Gross Credit: $0.65
- (Gross Credit - Net Debit)= Profit
- ($0.65 - $0.40)= $0.25
- ROI- 62.5%
The trade came out well as I did get the pullback I was expecting, just sooner than I thought. But where is gold going to go from here?
Well, being the election year, I am still prone to lean toward a bearish gold year or at least not much upward movement. I am not expecting record highs this year, but I do think buying on dips would be a good thing and to hold for post election movement.
Watch Increased Volatility
Currently, volatility for the metal is rising and this usually signals a greater move than normal. If this happens, the direction is unknown. But GLD will also rise in value for those who are interested in the ETF. Viewing the present economic conditions, I would say that there are move possibilities of events that would send gold up in value then down. Considering present conditions in Europe, if Spain or Italy collapsed financially that would do it. If bailouts weren't working, that could possibly be a catalyst. Besides Europe, an explosion in Iran or a sudden inflation escalation here in the U.S. could do it. So with increased volatility I would not be surprised to see an event trigger a noticeable move in gold upward.
In terms of investing, I believe a long term and hold strategy would be in order right now for gold. And I would look at buying on dips. Presently the GLD (if one would invest in this ETF has strong support at 131 and 128. These are two areas I would expect the stock to bounce off of that would make good entry points. But if one is not prone to follow charts, another long term strategy that might work well here would simply be dollar cost averaging. I do expect gold to continue up, and maybe the simplest way to invest in either the ETF or real gold would be to average in a little every month.
I would not be surprised to see it move up soon. I do not believe it will be a huge move up but I would not be surprised if it had a bullish run before year's end. The best way to invest in gold and the gold ETF is to buy on dips right now. Looking for post election movement which is sure to move up.