Fast Money Recap 3/19/08: Morgan Stanley Outshines Goldman

Recap of CNBC's Fast Money Program, Wednesday march 19. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis.

Potash (POT), Monsanto (MON), U.S. Oil Fund (USO), StreetTracks Gold Shares (GLD)

On Wednesday's action Seymour commented on the move out of commodities and action in the yen. He is bullish on Eastern European gas, and says there is too much "fluff" in POT and MON. Guy Adami would buy these stocks on declines. Jeff Macke advised getting rid of USO and GLD, because the Fed might consider other strategies that might not raise inflation.

Financials: Merrill Lynch (MER), Security Capital Assurance (SCA), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), UBS (UBS)

On MER's prospective lawsuit of SCA, Najarian reported increased put activity and predicted large writedowns. MS outshone Goldman in its earnings report. Adami would buy MS now, while Macke would sell and buy lower, and Najarian said it was worth taking gains, giving market volatility. Seymour is worried about UBS and other European investment banks and is bearish on financials.

Nike (NKE) and Starbucks (SBUX)

Macke praised NKE on its earnings and Najarian is doubtful that SBUX's move to sell energy bars and drinks will create a comeback. Macke is upset with SBUX and Adami would buy it up to $16.70 for a trade."

Visa IPO (V), Mastercard (MA)

Visa's IPO had a pricey opening, and Adami would wait for it to drop and would take profits in MA.

Healthcare: Amgen (AMGN), ImClone (IMCL), Pfizer (PFE)

Amgen plummeted to the lowest level in seven years, and Najarian noted the paradox that AMGN seems to go lower on good news; it recently released new anemia drugs. He doesn't think AMGN will be taken over, is bearish on the company pipeline and prefers IMCL. Macke says PFE may be in the market for a drug company.

Jeffrey Harte, Director in Equity Research Sandler O'Neill with JP Morgan (JPM)

Jeffrey Harte would be careful when dealing with banks. Najarian likes USB because of its lack of subprime problems and says GS and MS are well-run. Harte says good management might not be sufficient in such a volatile market, but added he has a buy rating on JPM.

Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter with CVRD (RIO)

Gartman blamed liquidation of positions by leveraged investors as the reason for the decline in gold and said he would sell oil. Gartman thinks oil will drop to $800. Seymour doesn't think infrastructure stocks will be adversely affected and would buy CVRD. Gartman agreed that infrastructure buildout isn't finished and said perception that the Fed has finished cutting rates may be the cause for the decline in commodities.

Emerging Markets: iShares Brazil (EWZ), iShares Taiwan (EWT), Tenaris (TS)

Emerging markets were hit hard on Wednesday, but Seymour is still a believer in the long-term, says EWZ has been knocked flat and likes EWT and TS. He thinks Brazil and China are too volatile and prefers Taiwan and Russia.

Trader Radar:General Mills (GIS) traded on unusual volume Wednesday.

Wireless: Interdigital (IDCC), Cisco (CSCO), Juniper (JNPR), Akamai (AKAM), Verizon (VZ)

In the wireless sector, Najarian likes IDCC which controls patents for 3G products as well as Cisco, which he says is best-in-breed. He is also bullish on JNPR and AKAM. Macke says VZ is the best in the sector and Adami would buy JNPR to $24 on the company’s reaffirmed guidance

Final Trade: Macke: Sell U.S. Oil Fund, Adami: Starbucks as a trade, Seymour: iShares Emerging Market Index (EEM) , Najarian: Merck (MRK)

Seeking Alpha is not affiliated with CNBC, or Fast Money

Comments

[Tony Soprano]

Since there is so much angst directed toward the Fed and the US Government, I decided to listed some events, not all of them, that had dramatic ramifications on lives, cost and the psychology of our country. I started in 1906 because it’s just a little over a hundred years. As I compiled the list, I could not help but feel the great sacrifices that many American’s have made and what a resilient country, economy and government we have in American.

The 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and fire, registered 8.25 on the Richter scale; estimates range from 700 to 3,000 dead or missing, approximately 225,000 injuries and $400,000,000 in 1906 dollars.

Recession, May 1907-June 1908, 13 mo

Recession Jan. 1910-Jan. 1912, 24 months

Completion of the Panama Canal, 1914 – 27,500 workers are estimated to have died

Recession Jan. 1913-Dec. 1914 23 months

World War I -- 116,708 killed – 33 billion

Spanish influenza, 1918, killed over 500,000 people in the worst single U.S. epidemic.

Recession Aug. 1918-March 1919 7 months

Recession Jan. 1920-July 1921, 18 months

Recession May 1923-July 1924 14 months

Recession Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927 13 months

The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927, flooded 27,000 square miles, 246 killed

The Great Depression, Black Tuesday, crop prices fell by 40 to 60 percent, after the panic of 1929, and during the first 10 months of 1930, 744 US banks failed. (In all, 9,000 banks failed during the 1930s). By 1933, depositors had lost $140 billion in deposits.

The Dirty Thirties, longest drought of 20th century. Peak periods were 1930, 1934, 1936, 1939, and 1940. The "dust bowl" covered 50 million acres in the south-central plains during the winter of 1935-1936.

Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, 400 killed

Recession May 1937-June 1938 13 months

World War II – 408,306 killed – 360 billion

Wartime Controls: 1941-1945 rationed consumer items ranging from sugar to gasoline

Recession Feb. 1945-Oct. 1945 8 months

The Marshall Plan, July 1947 – 13 billion in economic and technical assistance were given to help the recovery of the European countries

Recession Nov. 1948-Oct. 1949 11 months

Korean War, July 1951 - July 1953 – 33,000 killed in action

Recession July 1953-May 1954 10 months

Recession Aug. 1957-April 1958 8 months

Recession April 1960-Feb. 1961 10 months

The Cold War, some estimates shows $8 trillion was spent, worldwide, on nuclear and other weapons between 1945 and 1996

The Cuban Missile Crisis, Oct. 1962

Good Friday Earthquake (1964) In Alaska, it was the fourth biggest earthquake recorded

Vietnam War, 1963 – 47,378 killed in action

The murder of JFK, 1963 Nov

The Gulf of Tonkin Incident, Aug 1964

The murder of Dr King, April 1968 and Bobby Kennedy, June 1968

The city riots of April, 1968 – 30 cities affected

Hurricane Camille, Aug 1969, 259 killed

Recession Dec. 1969-Nov. 1970 11 months

Stagflation of the 1970s began

Nixon first imposed wage and price controls on August 15, 1971

Oil Embargo, Oct 1973 long gas lines

Recession Nov. 1973-March 1975 16 months

Articles of Impeachment of Nixon started
(Approved by a vote of 27-11 by the House Judiciary Committee on Saturday, July 27, 1974.)

Deregulation: 1974-1992 this era began when Nixon left office

Three Mile Island nuclear power plant crisis, March 1979

Mount St. Helens eruption 1980

Recession Jan. 1980-July 1980 6 months

Prime reached unbelievable 20% in January 1981,

AIDS was first reported June 5, 1981 by the government – It is thought that more than one million people are living with HIV in the USA and that more than half a million have died after developing AIDS.

Recession July 1981-Nov. 1982 16 months

California earthquake 1983

The 87 market crash - Black Monday

California earthquake, 1989

Recession July 1990-March 1991 8 months

Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990

The Persian Gulf War, 1991 or Desert Storm Jan 1991

Hurricane Andrew 1992 very destructive United States hurricane

The Great USA Flood of 1993

Intervention in the Former Yugoslavia,

Dot Com Bubble, climaxed on March 10th, 2000 with the NASDAQ peaking at 5132.52

9/11 Attack, 2,974 people died

Recession March 2001-Nov. 2001 8 months, Airline Industry Collapsed

Enron bankruptcy in late 2001, employed 22,000

WorldCom, July 21, 2002, filed for Chapter 11

Iraq War, March 19, 2003 – 4,000 dead

Hurricane Katrina, late August 2005, 1,836 people lost their lives

Start of the Great Housing Recession or Sub-prime Recession 2006 or 07, 08? Date to be determined.

[Vasiliy]

to Tony Soprano - very interesing, 100% agree