Financial Entertainment TV Buries Itself with Disinformation

Did you notice the number of well-known Talking Heads who showed up on Financial Entertainment TV or in headlines Wednesday telling their story that gold is going to crash?

Actually this is comical. These people are terrific at telling you what’s already happened. They tell you the target after they see the result. They are the same people who a few weeks ago were saying that gold was going to $2000/oz.

It’s all part of the nonsense that masquerades as analysis, forecasting and media. There are so many really good wealth managers and independent financial analysts around that it pains me to see legitimate media like BNN-TV give any airtime to charlatans.

Wednesday as Gold plunged, which you know I have been saying would happen, there was a story out that MF Global (MF) was in trouble and that margin requirements for trading Contracts For Difference had been hugely increased at that firm, causing massive selling, which was knocking commodity prices down.

Actually, if MF Global is (it probably is) in trouble, the clients merely flee the broker and move their accounts to another. The problem is counter-party risk. That means if MF Global doesn’t pay, the credit ring is broken and one brokerage house after another fails. This is no different than the Bear Stearns (BSC) situation.

The bottom line is that, in order to jury-rig a collapsing global economy and financial system, the $USD was taken down, which propped up all other currencies. That caused a bubble in commodities. And I told you in advance that gold would be the last one off the dance floor before the music stopped.

Wednesday, gold left the dance floor. Before it happened, I wrote to you, early in the morning,

Also, the gold stock leader Barrick (ABX) is in real trouble. For the change of trend to be confirmed, there is a need for a Triple Bottom ($49 on ABX.T) breakdown to $48.00. If any of you own this Cara 100 stock, it is the time to be very cautious. It is the reason I published a Buy/Sell Advisory on Goldcorp (GG), in which I opined the GG price was headed much lower.

You read about these things here before they happen. Proof of concept.

The trend change has now been confirmed. ABX.T dropped -$3.3 (-6.74%) to 45.96 Wednesday, and ABX on the NYSE dropped -$4.33 (-8.73%) to 45.25.

In the other "Proof", I issued a report on Goldcorp on Feb 28, to a restricted audience of 205 subscribers, at the peak close of $44.71, saying that, while the entire Street was recommending it, which I backed up with ten current research reports, I was giving the specific recommendation that as soon as the RSI-7 on the Daily price series data dropped below 70 traders should buy short-dated put options. I told the reader how they should play this for 100+% trading profits within a year.

Moreover, as gold was moving from 967 to 1029 early this Monday morning, I held firm. I even went so far as to state flat-out in the Week In Review on Sunday that my scenario would play out soon, after which I’d print the usual Proof of Concept claim.

You tell me whether I was right about what I wrote in the Feb 28 report?

Given that I believe there will be a sudden and sharp pull-back in the Price of Gold into the low 800’s within 2008, I believe there is a risk in holding the stock in the high 40’s. I believe there will be a pull-back of -30 pct in the stock price to about $31.50 this year, which would be an attractive buying opportunity.

Well, this week the price of gold gold has collapsed, and in three weeks Goldcorp dropped from $44.71 to $38.71, which is a loss of -13.4%. Thursday, like Barrick, Goldcorp will see further losses.

The point of this is I had no clue three weeks ago that Bear Stearns and MF Global, and a list of others, were in death throes (although I did say the banks were cooked), but I did believe that economic reality would set in and that the international currencies would soon reverse trend against the $USD, which would drive the price of commodities into a “sudden and sharp pull-back.”

The gain on those puts in three weeks is several hundred percent.

And gold, which hit a high of 1029 on Monday, hit a low just before 6am ET Thursday morning of 904.50, for a drop of -$125 in three days, which qualifies as a “sudden and sharp pull-back.”

If you agree that my crystal ball works more than on pure chance, let me opine that Financial Entertainment TV is now dead and buried. Those are ghosts that are showing up to work. The public has had it to the teeth with the media’s misinformation, and worse, the disinformation.

I’m looking forward to spending time with family this Easter. I hope you do as well. Family is the real deal.

Comments

[Tony Soprano]

Readers should keep in mind that the author above is playing the same game. Just a different venue. So why should we think the author is any more true? The author does not fail to list his website. Is he using this venue to his advantage? Is he selling books or advice? Does he have subscribers? Perhaps this talking blogger is not any different than the talking tv heads – billcara.com it not billcara.org.

[User 162922]

A vendor has a right to sell his product, especially if the product produces the expected result for the price. Media makes its money by selling advertising, which means they need to attract eyeballs. Humans are attracted by emotion thus the newspaper saying, "If it bleeds it leads." Therefore, whether it be financial news, general news, or any TV program, it must first entertain or at least captivate the individual so they can sell commercials.

Mr. Cara perhaps makes the point-silently-that in this business success is determined by emotionless analysis and execution (although evaluating emotion may be an analytical variable). Since financial TV must, by it's nature, appeal to emotions, it potentially dilutes analytical effectiveness-costing the viewer money and time.

[ponchovilla]

Financial entertainment is alive and well. There are so many lambs to lead around. What they don't say is in the disclaimer that you don't see (the information provided is valid for 15 seconds, but check out out book store or newsletter service and continue to hit our web site because we generate revenue for all of the Viagra hits). And Tony is a mind reader. Tony what does your crystal ball say today? The market is closed?

[gloria1234]

I would love to believe that Big Media disinformation is or will soon be dead & buried, yet look whom it serves--not so different from BS!? Fox Murdoch; WSJ oh right Murdoch; Bloomfield? poor pathetic cnbc etc...follow the money! Notwithstanding, my portfolio's rather a train wreck right now (commodity heavy). And yes, life's not really about the money. Happy Easter to you too, Mr. C. God bless us all.

[flatman]

Are you trying to tell me I shouldn't be making trading decisions based on the ever insightful Trish Regan or Michelle Caruso Cabrera - gee I never would have guessed. I keep waiting for the weather map to show up when they are on but CNBC persists in having them actually appear to be reporting on financial matters. Thanks for the heads up. What ever happened to my mentor Dennis Kneale??

[User 142738]

“If it bleeds, it leads” … trust me. CNBC, CNN, Sky, etc. aren’t the Wall Street Journal. They’ll pick out the most expensive food items to show huge inflation figures, then will show the cheapest food items the next day. They’ll air some guy pawning scrap gold to buy gasoline one day, then will show riots in Iran the next.

It’s best if you just read what’s printed on paper.

[gordon]

I can only hope they die, starting with Cramer's show, then Fox's, which has to be the worst financial show ever started, and CNBC. Cramer I believe is soon to go, he's more pathetic that his viewers.
Fast Money is way over 95% of dumb money's heads, their days have to be numbered. Straddles, collars, puts, give it up.

[john1]

All you liberals are the same, causing people to question authority. I've got those Weapons of Mass Delusion right here under my desk, and Saddam personally gave them to me, just like Faux New kept telling you. But, like all unpatriotic people who hate America, you refuse to believe !

[KostyaTszyu'sright hand]

I am amazed at the revered status given to 'technicians' nowadays. It was only 10-15 years ago they were called 'elves' on Wall Street Week. As for me, I'm happy for the advent of said reverence, as well as daytrading and the 'fast-money' dudes. It adds to volatility and inefficiency of the markets. jmho

[ishamon]

What we see on CNBC and financial TV channels is the sell side of the business. So obviously we get a delivery channel for all types of financial products. It is rarely that the buy side folks show up. When they do they are rather circumspect.

I have never seen what happened to investors who listen to CNBC etc and lost or made mistakes based on what they heard/saw. Why not have a few minutes of time for the dreamers, losers, winners and strivers all? Their experiences are valid and true. Of course for a variety of reasons, investor experiences will never make it to the TV channels.

Seeking alpha and written analysis gives one a chance to evaluate the information and make decisions to research or reject the ideas. God forbid we get a seeking alpha internet channel!!

[Purl Gurl]

I simply must plug an excellent stock market and business news television show.

I never fail to miss each Nightly Business Report on PBS stations.

www.pbs.org/nbr/

Nightly Business Report provides information in a matter-of-fact format sans all the hype and Cramer screaming. Although I favor Susie, both Susie and Paul provide news of current market events without bias. Each reports on major events and reports on events which are related, providing viewers a better understanding of what is factually happening, not personal opinions on “why” something is happening.

Nightly Business Reports invites a variety of scholars and known business leaders to comment on major trending which is very informative. These brief presentations provide information about market forces behind events rather than predictions in front of events. Their news reports are carefully crafted to provide counterbalance through opposing viewpoints from experts; there is no selling of a single viewpoint.

A delightful segment is hosting guests who have previously suggested stocks to buy. These guests are invited back in the future then Paul makes a point to cover how those previously suggested stocks performed, both good performance and bad performance. This helps viewers to sort who “knows their stuff” and who does not.

Nightly Business Report on PBS television stations is an excellent source of factual information, of learning and a good source of well founded expert opinion free of bias and hype.

An excellent follow-through is watching the Jim Lehrer news hour, usually immediately following the Nightly Business Report. Lehrer does not always cover business news but when his show does, the reporting is of significant excellence and often includes a roundtable discussion by business experts providing a wide variety of opinion.

Reads to me you boys are watching the wrong television shows!


Okpulot Taha
Choctaw Nation

[Tony Soprano]

I want to thank User 162922, ponchovilla, gloria1234, and flatman for their comments.

Our financial media is made up of humans like all of us. I do agree that there is plenty of emotion on our financial media stations. Some of it is entertainment, hamming, padding, pretty faces, short dresses, favoritism, egotism and out right lies. Also, I believe that the average investor can be confuses, persuaded and dissuaded from making sound investment decisions based on the media.

However, we should be grateful that we have many financial media resources. When I first started investing nearly 50 years ago it was difficult to get information quickly. Mansfield charts were delivered to my house, they were expensive and old by the time I got them. I would create my own but that took much time. There was limited coverage on TV. To get a feel of what occurred in the markets I had to read the papers. The overseas markets did not matter quite as much. It was a slower moving world.

Today we can get up early in the morning and get a read of what the markets are doing overseas. The Martin Luther Holiday crash was a good example of the impact of the overseas markets. I am grateful that we have access to this information. The data that day spoke for itself regardless of what the talking heads were saying.

The interviews with Warren Buffett, Jim Rogers, Bob Doll and Ken Heebner just to name a few have been insightful. They don’t all agree but sometimes they do. To say that they are merely entertainment would under value there respective place in the markets. You can say that they are talking their own book. This may very well be true but every advisor does it to varying degrees. It’s up the to the investor it make his own decisions.

In my view Mr Cara is doing the same thing but with a different venue. For Mr. Cara to say that he is the puritan of the financial advisory venues is absurd. Mr. Cara is using your emotions as well. By building a foundation of distrust of the media he his able to define his business moat or niche. Its good, its okay, its fine but not necessary the only way to invest in the markets. There are some of you that love him and are doing fine that’s great. On the other hand, there are some that love the media and are doing well and that’s great as well.

Some of you write about our emotional media. Does Mr Cara write his pieces in a totally unemotional vain? No way, Mr Cara uses some highly charged words to insight your emotions. Some of it is logic and reason. But to say that all of his work is purely logic and the media is nothing but comical and emotional with no logic ever presented is pure bunk.

Mr. Cara said: “If you agree that my crystal ball works more than on pure chance, let me opine that Financial Entertainment TV is now dead and buried. Those are ghosts that are showing up to work. The public has had it to the teeth with the media’s misinformation, and worse, the disinformation.” If this statement is not emotional and highly opinionated work then I don’t not what is. “Ghosts that are showing up to work” he said: that is not only emotional but demented.

I hereby challenge Mr. Cara to prove that the above paragraph that he wrote is true. “Ghosts that are showing up for work” – again, Mr. Cara is using the very same tactic that he is critical of in the media. He is appealing to your emotions. Its everywhere, whether, you see it on TV, hear it on the radio, read it in the paper, on websites, its all the same and Mr. Cara is really not that much different. It’s the same palaver finely disguised with innuendo , quips, quotes and demagoguery.

[Reader851]

test

[Reader851]

it's been a long time since i've seen someone break his arm in more places trying to pat himself on the back

give me a break (no pun intended)

[notsosmart]

just use your "clicker".

[Pilot Guy]

You gotta love it when an analyst cherry picks one call at one point in time. So many have been calling for a retrenchment in Gold for over a year. If you say the same thing over an extended period of time - you are bound to be right eventually. That does not mitigate the fact that you were wrong all of the other times.

[DrMarcusAurelius]

In fairness, Mr. Cara, in order to know how well your crystal ball works we would need to know the full set of predictions that you have made over an extended period of time in order to estimate whether in fact your calls, in the aggregate, are more accurate than chance alone--or my favorite investing method, letting chickens peck at the financial page. This isn't to say that you aren't more accurate than my chickens. It is to say that you haven't given us the information that we would need in order to know.

[Donald E.L. Johnson]

I usually watch cnbc with the mute on. When a ceo, cabinet member or member of Congress comes on, I turn on the sound. CNBC's viewers are no fools. They know the game and act accordingly. When they want to know about stocks, they turn to their financial advisers, the Internet, Seeking Alpha, etc.

I'd be interested in seeing a poll of CNBC viewers that asks what pubs they subscribe to and what web sites they use to research investments and trades. As for looking down your nose at CNBC and FBN, that's ok so long as you don't claim you never watch them or listen to them. Most of the comments here suggest they come from loyal viewers of CNBC.