Fast Money Recap, 3/20/08: Cold Commodities

Recap of CNBC's Fast Money program, Thursday March 20. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis.

Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE)

Tim Seymour said the market seems stable after a bullish close following a strong move from the Fed. He said government aid to FNM and FRE added a boost. Jeff Macke says for the first time in six months it is not worth shorting the dollar, the financial sector and being long commodities.

Commodities: Potash (POT), Monsanto (MON), Newmont Mining (NEM), Agrium (AGU), CVRD (RIO), BHP Billiton (BHP), Joy Global (JOYG)

While the commodities selloff was not surprising, Pete Najarian said there was a chance to buy POT and MON which got knocked down and then rallied. Adami said gold will stop rising when the dollar improves and thinks steel is a good commodity trade. Najarian recommended NEM and Macke commented that NEM does not slavishly follow gold’s pattern. Tim Seymour said action in the dollar index signals increasing confidence in US markets and the dollar. Although this may slow momentum in commodities, Seymour still thinks AGU has pricing power and likes RIO and BHP. Adami’s pick is JOYG.

Chart of the Day: Wal-Mart (WMT): The group thinks WMT is ready for a recovery after a ten year slump.

FedEx (FDX) Earnings with Ryder (R)

Adami said the company has been sluggish the past year and noted the “lousy” outlook, although its valuation is good. However, he “wouldn’t run out and buy it” and prefers Ryder. Macke however, notes the fact FDX rose on bad news.

Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), Clear Channel (CCU)

Ailing airlines are good news for BNI and Najarian thinks they will have to consolidate. He saw an opportunity to play call spreads in CCU and predicts the company will close the deal with Thomas H.Lee Partners and Bain Capital and will be taken private.

Whitney Tilson T2 Capital Partners Bear Stearns (BSC)

ilson thinks the housing crisis is only half finished because of the length of the housing bubble from 2005 to 2007. He said the financial rally was a dead cat bounce and is short mortgage and bond insurers as well as BSC. Although raised limits for Freddie and Fannie may provide liquidity, the companies will need more capital to deal with bad paper. Tilson predicts an expensive government bailout to prevent foreclosures after the next election.

iShares Emerging Markets Index (EEM), Petrobras (PBR), PetroChina (PTR), U.S. Oil Fund (USO, StreetTracks Gold (GLD), Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW)

The quarter came in like a lion and may well go out like a lamb, and Seymour thinks money will go back into the market. He would keep an eye on battered stocks EEM, PBR and PTR. Macke thinks there will be squeezes on the other side of long commodities and short financials and would avoid USO and GLD. Adami would get into HD early because he thinks it will reach 30. Najarian prefers LOW and Macke likes WMT. Najarian said WMT’s story is over.

Oracle (ORCL)

Macke agreed with CEO Larry Ellison’s bullish statements and said the company is more efficient and is making good acquisitions. Adami thinks the quarter is good but noted the stock did not rise after the previous strong quarter. He is bullish. Najarian would sell some ORCL if it goes up. He commented on put activity in the company but says they are protecting their long positions.

U.S. Steel (X), Arcelor Mittal (MT), Massey (MEE)

Adami predicts gains for steel as China and India increase production. Seymour likes MT. Najarian thinks coal has been hammered and thinks MEE is interesting.

Trader Radar: Chipotle (CMG) was one of the most actively traded stocks on Thursday.

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI), XMSR Satellite Radio (XMSR)

On breaking news the commissioner of the FCC requires new merger documentation for SIRI and XMSR, Macke commented further delays are bringing down value in the companies, because they have difficulty attracting new subscribers while they are in limbo.

Final Trades: Macke: Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), Adami: Microsoft (MSFT), Seymour: PetroChina, Najarian: Oracle

Seeking Alpha is not affiliated with CNBC, or Fast Money

Comments

[AmesTiedeman]

I think Oil can pull back to the 80's before going to 125 in 2009. I think one has to short USO and OIL and be long DUG.

[misterchan]

Why is it that when the market goes down 400 points (and not just once), all you people on CNBC just keep smiling. suggest a lot of excuses and give stock purchase recommendations which, even in bear conditions, will go up, but when precious metals have a similar correction, and this after having made big upward moves , especially in the last couple of months, you advise getting out of gold and oil, too?Could it be that the markets are rigged and that is what precipitates all the dramatic movement and all the subsequent advice? Is it possible that all the Wall St. insiders are quite easily making millions because of dispensing all this directional advice? I think so. What think you?

[biodoc]

I think you are right on! It would appear that unless you are savvy in trading options and ahead of the market (insider) you can't make money in this market.

[nonaldehyde]

Here's a pindick comment from anonymous.

CNBC? Are you kidding me? Pretty people with communications degrees reading stories they don't understand as an information source? Shurely shome mishtake?!?

The opinion that matters, the ONLY opinion that matters, at the end of the day is price.

[aBuongiornofrom Texas]

Need more comments from you on option trading. Past results, how-to, etc.. Even though think like a bull, we are in a bear market. Getting in and out quickly is the only safe way right now--and that even has it's bears charging for you. I am long on oil and gold regardless, though. Your high energy spills over the airwaves right here in my little office. Thanks!

[docjock]

You don’t need to be savvy—you need to have guts. This is a perfect market for options—pick any volatile commodity stock (POT, MOS, MON, PBR, e.g.) and buy straddles, and you’re set. Or better, buy a call and a put separately, at the same price. Options require guts: buy the call and put, and wait for one side to be up 50% (that takes about an hour in today’s market). Sell it, and wait another 4 hours for the other side to be up 50%. The problem for some is that with the same positions in the same market they watch the side that drops 50% over the first hour, and then they panic and sell it. Then they wait 4 hours until the other side is down 50%, and then they sell that. Same picks, same market—one guy doubles his money in two days, and the other loses everything. No inside secrets required—just the right combination of patience and guts, without an overdose of greed.
And if you really think someone is ‘controlling the markets’, you should stick with your day job.

[misterchan]

Thanks for all your comments. It was fun reading them. However, Biodoc, in my opinion, is the most savvy. I have been writing out-of-the-money options for years. They give a better chance of making a profit. And maybe people who have no idea of the inner workings of Wall St. would be monetarily safer keeping their day jobs.