Concerns Surrounding Oil Supply Grow as Mexican Production Declines (SU, OXY, EAC, COSWF)

Declining production from Mexico’s largest oil field, Cantarell, fortifies concerns about future oil supply. A timely discussion (sub. required) in the Wall Street Journal on February 9 cites Mexican government estimates that annual production would decline from 2.0 million barrels daily in 2005 to betweenv1.4 and 0.7 mbd in 2008. As Cantarell goes, so goes Mexican oil as the field accounts for 60% of the country’s output (see graphic).

The U.S. imports more oil from Mexico than from Saudi Arabia. Buy-recommended producers concentrated on oil include Suncor Energy (SU), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Encore Acquisition(EAC) and Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF).

Three of four commodity price indicators have positive momentum. A fifth, less reliable indicator, refining crack, the margin between the price of crude oil and the price of products, deteriorated sharply in the past week.

Kurt Wulff's McDep Associates offers realtime, independent research services for investors in the energy and utilities sectors. For more information, go to www.mcdep.com or email Mr. Wulff at [e-mail].

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