Bill McLaren's Current Market Outlook

by: Roger Nusbaum

Roger Nusbaum submits: Bill McLaren had some interesting comments on CNBC Europe Monday Morning (Sunday night US time). You can read the entire transcript here.

Remember that following his reports is not easy, but it seems like he believes the likely setup for the S+P 500 is for it to go higher, but there is a scenario building in for a crash, a scenario that he assigns a low probability to for now.

He looks at a lot of time cycles and one important time frame to his work is 45 days. There is a 45-day cycle ending on February 25 (this is Saturday, so look for either Friday or Monday). "If the index goes up into this date and is still below the high it could be setting up a crash scenario." I take the high he refers to be from early January. The six-month cycle may be setting up for this but he says there is no evidence of this now, which is not exactly clear to me given the last sentence.

In keeping with his forecast he says the more likely scenario is after three runs up to resistance, this next run will break above the current resistance.

I don't write a lot about technical analysis but I do think it is important to be in touch with chart patterns of markets and individual stocks. While the predictive value can ebb and flow, important support and resistance levels do indicate sentiment and emotion, both of which do factor into short term pricing.