Under The Radar News - Thursday

Barron's thinks a second-half rebound in U.S. corporate earnings isn't likely, despite analyst expectations to the contrary. "The economy is going to remain repressed, and sectors outside financials may not be able to generate the kind of earnings that analysts initially expect," Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni says. "Everywhere I look, I see deceleration. I just don't see how, all of a sudden, a switch will go off in July or August and everything starts rising," says fund manager Jon Fisher.

ECB chairman Jean-Claude Trichet: "I wouldn't say the worst is behind us."

Goldman recoups most of $2B bailout. In August, Goldman (GS) put up $2B to bail out its troubled Global Equity Opportunities hedge fund, and U.S. billionaire Eli Broad chipped another $1B. Well, Broad managed to withdraw his entire investment, and Goldman quietly took back $1.8B at the end of February. Goldman's quant hedge funds are a shadow of their previous selves, but it still managed to raise a record $7B for its Investment Partners fund in January.

Junk and junkier. Junk bond prices are already down 3.9% this year, and bankers say things could still get worse. "The process of deleveraging in financial markets is not over and the weakening U.S. economy still poses a credible risk to credit markets," a Merrill strategist told a high-yield investors conference this week. Moody's expects global high-yield default rates to hit 5.4% by year-end, vs. a current 1.3%.

Is Google Shadowing MSFT Exchange? A new service that allows users to synchronize their calendar, e-mail and address books between Google's (GOOG) Gmail and Microsoft's Outlook (MSFT) might give the hugely popular yet still number-three webmail service (behind Yahoo (YHOO) and MSN) a big boost. But there's more: MailShadow theoretically allows users to stop paying for MSFT Exchange servers, and run Outlook for free compliments of Google.

Exxon regains lead. Just months after being dwarfed by the $1.1T PetroChina as the number-one biggest company in the world, ExxonMobil (XOM) retook the lead yesterday ($461B vs. $453B). PetroChina shares are down 58% since its November IPO. Ouch.

Youth will drive Apple growth. 40% of college students will opt for Macs (AAPL) over PCs, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty says, setting Apple up for an "aging phenomenon" that will drive its market share and revenue growth as current and future students enter the workforce.

Thinner, faster, smarter. Apple (AAPL) will roll out new iMacs and Mac minis within weeks, sources say. The new Mac mini will be half the size of its predecessor, faster, and will boast more storage. Does it make cappuccino too?

Datacenter overflow. A full 42% of IT executives say their datacenters will exceed power capacity with the next 1-2 years. The reason: Heavier than anticipated server rollouts, and CPU advances that are outpacing efficiency improvements. Good news for H-P (HPQ) and others who have been developing power management tools. Bad news for IT in general: Experts say IT budgets could be siphoned off to pay for datacenter expansions.

Motorola insider Numair Faraz tells all. It ain't pretty (MOT).

On CNet restructuring: "It is astounding that it has taken years of shareholder value destruction for CNET (CNET) to even start examining the basics of reversing its ongoing underperformance. Shareholders should ask themselves whether there is any reason to believe that the current leadership will do so successfully. Rather than farming out the challenges facing CNET to a 'task force' led by its CFO, we think a better plan is to bring the necessary experience and expertise to CNET's board of directors... This is why we have proposed new board members who we believe possess the experience and expertise to bring effective change to CNET." -- activist shareholder Jana Partners

Could weak Q1 at Citi lead to Smith Barney sale? Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney predicts Citigroup (C) will lose $1.15/share in Q1, quadrupling her earlier estimate of -$0.28. If so, where will Citi turn to next for more money? She thinks Citi might have to sell off Smith Barney.

EA a likely Two bagger. Despite all the sabre-rattling, analysts think Take-Two's (TTWO) moves to block EA's (ERTS) $2B buyout will not succeed, and EA will snap up the company.

Battered batteries. Ultra-low cost notebook sales are in jeopardy after a shortage of laptop batteries is forcing manufacturers to earmark precious factory time to higher-priced products. EeePC maker Asustek is already feeling the pinch, and H-P (HPQ) could be next in line. Not a good time for a battery to die: Dell (DELL) says the shortage is driving up replacement battery pricing.

AT&T leaps into browser battlefield. AT&T's (T) business development group is developing a 3D web browser called Pogo that's based on Mozilla's rendering engine. It's expected to be Windows only.

We've got options. American Axle (AXL) CEO Dick Dauch warns U.S. jobs could be outsourced to Mexico, South America, Europe and Asia if the company is unable to settle a month-old union-organized strike. "We will not be forced into bankruptcy in order to reach a market-competitive cost structure in the U.S.," he says. 29 GM (GM) factories are either closed or partially functional as a result of the strike.

Bad tip. After losing a $100M lawsuit over unfair tip sharing in California, a former barista is suing Starbucks (SBUX) on behalf of all the Massachusetts employees he says were unfairly forced to share their tips with supervisors.