Tibco Up on Solid Earnings, Guidance; Larger IT Players To Win Anyway?

 |  Includes: IBM, ORCL, SAP, TIBX
by: Eric Savitz

Tibco (NASDAQ:TIBX) shares are modestly higher this morning after the company reported slightly better-than-expected topline results in its fiscal first quarter ended March 2.

Revenue in the quarter totaled $146.6 million, above the Street consensus of $145 million. Non-GAAP EPS was in line with estimates at 7 cents a share.

In a post-earnings conference call with analysts, the company said it expects revenue for the May quarter of $153 million to $156 million, with EPS of 8 cents; the Street had been looking for $152.6 million and 8 cents.

Some analysts remain cautious on the shares.

Goldman’s Derek Bingham this morning repeated his Sell rating on the stock. He says the Q1 report was “solid,” but he remains concerned about exposure to a weakening economy. “We continue to view Tibco as one of the companies in our universe most at risk from a slowing IT spending environment in 2008,” he writes. “We believe that in tighter times, buyers tend to move away from expensive, best-of-breed offerings and toward good enough substitutes bundled with broader solutions at lower prices from the likes of IBM, Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) and SAP.”

In like vein, Bear Stearns analyst John DiFucci this morning repeated his Peer Perform rating on the company. “While the report was sold, we believe there remains a heightened risk for most software companies given the macro economic backdrop,” he writes. “In addition, Tibco’s expansion plans during this period could increase its risk profile as it further builds out its sales force.”

Tibco this morning is up 10 cents, or 1.4%, at $7.49.