Deteriorating Market for PCs

U.S. consumers and businesses aren’t buying PCs like they used to – and the economic slowdown continues to take a big bite out of personal computer demand.

Two recent ChangeWave surveys focused on PC purchasing trends among consumers and corporations. The results clearly show deteriorating PC spending going forward.

Next 90 Days: PCs Head South

Consumers. Only 8% of the 4,427 consumers surveyed by ChangeWave in late February say they’ll be buying a laptop in the next 90 days – down 3-percentage points since November 2007. Most importantly, that’s a record low for the past 12 months.

The same trend was found for desktops, with just 6% saying they’ll be buying a one – also a low for the year.

Businesses. In a double whammy, corporate PC buying has also slowed precipitously. In February, only 73% of 2,204 corporate respondents said their company plans on buying laptops in the next quarter – down 4-pts from a year ago. It’s the same pattern for desktops, with corporate purchases down 5-pts.

But what impact, if any, is the PC slowdown having on major manufacturers? Let’s look at three of the heavyweights:

Apple Mac Sales Remain Relatively Strong

Planned purchases of Apple (AAPL) computers remain relatively strong even in the slower PC buying environment.

Looking at the next 90 days, Apple remains the leader among consumers who plan to buy a laptop (31%) – down just 2-pts from the all-time high recorded in our previous survey. Apple planned desktop purchases (28%; down 1-pt) are also near record levels.

Importantly, Apple’s planned buying numbers are up more than 50% from a year ago.

In the corporate market, planned Mac purchases for next quarter are also at near record highs, with laptops (7%) unchanged from previously and desktops (6%) down just 1-pt.

Most positively for Apple, the company continues to set the standard for customer satisfaction. Among corporate respondents using the Leopard operating system, better than half (53%) report they are Very Satisfied.

This compares to a 40% Very Satisfied rating for Windows XP Pro users, and a miniscule 8% Very Satisfied rating for Microsoft (MSFT) Vista Business (8%).

Another Ebb for Dell

In contrast to Apple, we find a far different story with Dell (DELL).

After experiencing a tiny uptick in planned consumer buying in our previous survey, Dell is once again losing traction going forward. Planned purchases of Dell laptops (28%; down 2-pts) and especially desktops (32%; down 4-pts) are considerably weaker than in our previous survey.

Dell is also plagued by a downturn in planned corporate buying for next quarter, with desktop (32%; down 3-pts) and laptop (32%; down 1-pt) purchases falling to new lows.

“It’s like déjà vu, all over again,” Yogi Berra famously said, and that’s what it looks like as Dell once again resumes its market share slide.

Weakening Sales for Hewlett-Packard

Another major player, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), also exhibits weaker PC sales going forward – led by a big drop in consumer planned buying of desktops (18%; down 5-pts) and laptops (19%; down 2-pts).

In terms of corporate planned purchases, H-P also look weaker going forward, both for desktops (17%; down 1-pt) and laptops (14%; down 2-pts).

Hewlett-Packard recently announced strong computer sales. But almost 70% of its sales come from outside the U.S. – where the current slowdown is likely having less of an impact – while our ChangeWave surveys focus mainly on the U.S. market.

Indeed, outside the U.S., H-P registers higher market share numbers for consumer desktops (22%), corporate desktops (20%) and corporate laptops (17%).

Nonetheless, weaker U.S. visibility clearly looks to be an issue for Hewlett-Packard going forward.

Jim Woods co-wrote this article.

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This article summarizes the results of a recent ChangeWave Alliance survey. The Alliance is a research network of 15,000 business, technology and medical professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the front line of technological change. For more info on ChangeWave, or to sign up for real-time alerts email on the hottest technologies and companies, click here

Comments

[ProudCanadian]

I noticed more people saying: "I prefer to buy a Blackberry from RIMM than a laptop".

[valuemanager03]

This is interesting market share type data, but I found it disingenious of you to use different time periods for the 4 time series charts - all of which are based on the same underlying survey data and are directly comparable. Why? I'm guessing because you want each chart to best prove your point (linear increases/decreases in market share). Why not put all 4 charts for the same full time period so people can see the ebb and flow of market share?

[steveballmer]

LIES! The first clue that this is total rubbish is the talk and chart about Apple Corporate sales, THERE IS NO SUCH THING! Sheesh!
Don't believe everything you read people!

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