FCC Seems Close to Rendering Sirius/XM Merger Decision

Counsel from Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR) met with the FCC Commissioner and various staff on March 26th, 2008. The topics of discussion centered on merger filings consistent with that which has been discussed in the past. As part of the meeting, Sirius and XM showed the proposed A-La-Carte channel line-up for post merger satellite radio. The company urged the FCC to deliver prompt approval.

Not that A-La-Carte programming was never out of play, but this meeting would tend to suggest that it is indeed a merger concession that will likely be demanded by the FCC.

Interestingly, the comments urging the FCC for prompt approval, while expected in this situation, would also seem to indicate that the regulator is now to the point of weighing the merger options. This would be consistent with comments made by Chairman Martin that the staff was drafting documents outlining various merger situations.

Reading between the lines, it is possible that various concession options were discussed at this very meeting.

The FCC published their weekly “Items In Circulation” list Friday, and the Sirius/XM issue was not present. At this point it would appear that the FCC is close to rendering their decision. They are meeting with company counsel, and seem to have all relative information in their hands to consider.

I would estimate that the FCC will be delivering a decision sometime in April, and place higher odds on the middle third of the month.

Sirius and XM Filing With FCC

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

Comments

[azdeutscher]

What happened to the decision being made by the end of the 1st quarter? Isn't that Monday? I will be so happy when I can hear Howard Stern, the Grateful Dead, and MLB on the same radio, as well as CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, and Traffic. It's like the internet in your car. I love it!

[ses]

same here the merger rules please fcc make the decision with no concessions.thank you

[Bushizachimp]

The DOJ didn't impose any restrictions...neither will the FCC.

The consumer wants more choice and lower prices. That's what good mergers offer the public. This one is a good one.

[pain]

What the hell are we waiting for. We have over waited. It would be nice to have the decision made on Monday Just like the DOJ. God bless the Department Of Justice. They should be praised. No conditions and on that note I will love them with no conditions as well. It is a pleasure to see Politics that does good and see's turth. All Shareholders agree.

[taalman]

that's kind of unfair to chimps

[sparky]

I'm concerned by the stock behavior since the DOJ approval. I understand that the market should remain tentative until the FCC approved, but I would have expected a small boost to the mid $3 range until FCC came to a decision. I'm concerned that this might mean limited upside if/when the FCC approves.

[snoofy]

Of course we want concessions. We want to hear all programming on one kind of satellite radio, a la cart choice, and lower prices. The combined company is going to save money. Pass some of it on to the consumer. The FCC can dictate this. Do it, and let's get on with it.

[Superstar331]

Good merger? The submitted channel line up makes it more expensive to receive. They lump all sirius with 'select' XM and raise the price. What a joke. If I want all Sirius channels plus NHL and MLB it's going to be like $26 a month...not much of a deal, especially if you have the Sirius lifetime plan they used to offer...kiss any perks there goodbye since there will be no continuing revenue.

[User 168418]

WHEN THE DOJ GAVE THEIR APPROVAL THE STOCK POPED ON THAT DAY TO ABOUT $3.83 THEN DROPPED BACK DOWN TO ABOUT $3.20 EXPECT FOR A BIG POP AFTER FCC APROVES THE MERGER. WHATS HOLDING THIS STOCK DOWN IS THE TALK ABOUT IS THAT DOJ HAD STATED THAT THEIR WAS LOTS OF COMPETION IN THE MARKET AND CONCESSIONS WHICH MIGHT BE ADDED BY THE FCC............AT
$2.80 I THINK THIS STOCK IS A STEAL......CRAMER SAID THIS STOCK COULD GO TO $5.00 AFTER FCC APPROVES.

[stinkaroo]

God Bless the DOJ???? They took over a year, approving over 200 other mergers in that span, and you think they should be praised?

Also, the DOJ promised a decision by end of Q1... not the FCC... just to respond to the first comment.

The DOJ allowed both companies to flounder and bleed money for over a year and should not be praised. Heck, it took a year and they approved with no stipulations? Good Lord, no stipulations suggests that this was a cut and dry decision... AND THEY TOOK OVER A YEAR!!!

Personally I hope they break their arms while patting themselves on their backs for a job well done...

[Sparks]

A merger which eliminates competition will be good for stockholders but bad for the consumer. The most desirable programs will be duplicated on both systems. Some programs will have to be dropped to make room for them. Duplicate programming is a waste of spectrum and bad business. The next step will be a new radio capable of receiving both systems. All satellite radios now in use will rapidly become obsolete. The price for premium channels will not be cheap. As for commercial free programming, the following is taken from an article by Devin Leonard in Fortune magazine, November 14, 2005 “Karmazin started selling radio ads when he was 17 and ran Infinity Broadcasting for 15 years before selling the company to Westinghouse, then CBS's parent. The joke about him was that he was so pushy that advertisers used to buy airtime from Mel just to get him out of their office.” If the FCC really gives Sirius what they want, the company will be “priceless”.

[bababoooie]

On the decision:
April 10 is the next meeting...Check calendars.


On Concessions:
Is perception reality?
For Optimists, the glass is half full.......
Pessimists, there's a hole in the glass!!!!!
Premium services will be the profit, while base packages will pay the bills!

[bababoooie]

at 2.80 siri is a steal

[TScott1998]

Lets get on with it FCC, I can wait till the middle of the april, but that's it, get on you horses and approve the deal already

[Ace22]

Everyone who agrees with the sirius /XM merger and thinks this is taking to long to get approvale should wright to the
FCC Chairman: Kevin J. Martin
E-mail [e-mail] or visit there website fcc.gov

[billi]

Sirius and Xm have every right to expect a prompt approval. The Justice Department studied the merger for over a year, and approved it with no restrictions.

[pain]

I praise them cause at least they did the right thing. You must of had really good luck in your life. We'll i guess this was a taste of the real world for all you little girls out there that still live under daddy's roof. Praise them hell ya fool> with the NAB having their heads so far up the FCC's ass. One would wonder who elses ass they where in. Forgive me i didn't realize i had to explain my position up in this mother. Better late than never. Nobody was positive about the whole deal in the first place so you took a gamble. Let's be thankful to those who helped us. The system actually worked in our favor. That's good for me. Like I always say "no PAINs, no Gains"!!!!!

[Wez]

Not that I have a crystal ball, but other than a minor pop when the FCC announces, I'm thinking this stock does nothing until they start to show some ability to make a profit. Remember, the markets still don't like highly leveraged companies. I would love to get some money back on the shares I bought years ago, but have no dreams of that happening until they can deliver.

[pain]

I am quite positive about the near future and beyond. The opposition was fierce. They were worried about the combination for a reason. It has all come together nicely and it will reflect all the benefits in the near future. I believe that the new recievers are already in motion and better advertisement for products such as the STELITO with amazing recording capabilities. It is clear that the opposition had something to fear, their end is near. This is the wave of the future for radio. Two loser don't make a winner, but here may be a rare, but real winner. I am sure their may be a buyer waiting on the sidelines waiting for approval. I believe that now is the time to buy siri for google or apple. They could buy it now before Siri becomes too expensive. That would be such a power trip for ethier company to pick up the SATRAD industry. The stelito intergrated with apple features. Lord help us. The possibilies are endless. You can be sure they are entertaining the thought and considering the next major move that will propel them to a whole nother level.

[PVA]

what's his authority on this? or insight into the FCC? It seems like a month hasn't gone by with somebody blogging that the FCC is going to rule. I guess eventually somebody has to be right...

[PJH]

The fcc should approve the merger with no conditions, In a merged form the satelite radio industry will still be fighting for it's finacial life! Mel cannot be handcuffed by finacial restraints pushed through by the NAB, as a concumer I want a viable entity and if it goes bankrupt I loose,I would prefer to pay more and if it goes to high it is "Hello I-pod".

[PJH]

The fcc should approve the merger with no conditions, In a merged form the satelite radio industry will still be fighting for it's finacial life! Mel cannot be handcuffed by finacial restraints pushed through by the NAB, as a concumer I want a viable entity and if it goes bankrupt I loose,I would prefer to pay more and if it goes to high it is "Hello I-pod".

[stinkaroo]

Pain said, "Mar 31 03:08 PMI praise them cause at least they did the right thing. You must of had really good luck in your life. We'll i guess this was a taste of the real world for all you little girls out there that still live under daddy's roof."

What a baby. Dude, all I was doing was pointing out that the DOJ did not deserve praising... in my opinion... even though they finally rendered the right decision doesn't excuse them from taking 13 months to do so. You attacking someone who offered a different opinion on the character of the DOJ is just childish man... i just wanted to tell you that.

On with the merger!

[163888]

Your right stinkaroo, the fact the DOJ put no restrictions on the merger and yet still took over a year to approve of it was appalling. It showed this should have been approved a long time ago.

[pain]

Stinky Said "god bless the D.O.J.??? That isn't exactly an attack but you did quote me and critize my statement. Stinker I smell you though. I just felt that i had to express my point of veiw. I know that the DOJ screwed us,but nobody does anybody any favors. We got something for nothing. Everyone is aware of how corrupt politics are so take what you can get. They didn't have to approve the merger no matter what evidence you had. The FCC is still being a stinkeroo. I just wanted to let you know man!

[User 171703]

THANK YOU JUSTICE DEPT.Its about fricken time!
Now hopefully i'll get my money back on the sirius Stock I bought 3 yrs. ago. At $6.75 a share (oops)

[stinkaroo]

Pain, I didn't criticize your original statement... I didn't agree with it and offered up why... without accusing you of living with your daddy. Don't get me wrong, I'm not offended or wish any ill will, just wanted to respond is all.. cool?

You are right that no one owe us any favors and we all know how corrupt politics can be, I just don't praise them for it nor do I think people should become callus to their shananigans.

I think the FCC has little choice but to approve and hopefully they won't wait 13 months to do it...lol!

[163888]

stinkaroo, ihave to correct you about the first comment there were two commissioners from the FCC that said a dicision should be reached by the end of the first quarter. On that note though K. Martin said he thought that they would have an answer by the end of the 4th quarter. It is my opinion that he had his mind made up at that piont and thought he could have had at least the other two republicans by that time.

[stinkaroo]

I thought that the FCC's position all along was to render their decision after the DOJ and it was the DOJ that promised their decision by end of Q1 2008.... which they waited until the very end. I don't recall a time table from the FCC other than it would be after the DOJ. Either way, they should be able to make a decision considering all the time thats passed.... I'm not going to hold my breath though...haha.

[Ppartin]

Yes, I want the merger to go through to save both companies. I am worried though since I have 2 lifetimes subscriptions and I am wondering how the future channel changes will change my current options. They need to outline how this will change the many people that opted for the lifetime subscription. How come when the oil companies merged they did not have to offer a la carte gas pricing?

[scotty 48]

To User 171703. The best and sad part about this is the stock holders like us. We are praying this gets approved to get our money back at best. Most of us are already in the hole big time..

[pain]

This is really making me sick! The FCC are a bunch of lazy losers. This is over the top. Aren't they tired. I mean come on already! This is outrageously insane! This is down right sickening the way they are taking their time. What are they drafting? They are actually thinking of ways to hurt, slow and deliberately are trying to limit the success of the company! Leave us alone you big bullies. You are destroying a great opportunity for these companies to come out of the ground. It is clear as day and the D.O.J. have not put any conditions. So why do you have to hate ? They are not helping anyone and they are just killing the companies. All these prick nose bastards are speaking out and lobbying for who and what? We should be trading at around $7.00 with support of our government helping us out making sure we can survive. But instead i stand hear as an American witnessing the distortion by the special 11 AGs. Shareholders and subscribers agree are that the merger is good. The DOJ said no problem with no Conditions.
So who is left and why? Guilty! Self serving only concerned with themselves and their old friends has got to come to end! Be real for the people> we are hurting enough with all your other mistakes like bear sterns. Maybe, just maybe, if the FCC wasn't so busy wasting time analyzing the deal they could of focused on real problem where they really should of intervened. Somebody has got to do something! It is criminal!

[163888]

stinkaroo, I do no recall anyone from the DOJ ever saying that they would have a decision by any time. I think you are getting what analyst were saying confused with what the DOJ were not saying. The only reason the analyst were saying the DOJ would rule by the first quarter is they figured they would rule before the FCC and the FCC was saying they should have a ruling by the end of the first quarter.