Fast Money Recap, 3/28/08: Will Lehman Follow Bear?

Recap of CNBC's Fast Money Program, Friday March 28. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis.

Friday’s Market: Jeff Macke says the recession has arrived and didn’t expect so dramatic a fall as occurred on Friday. Pete Najarian said volatility was under 26% and takes this as a good sign.

Tech: Research In Motion (RIMM), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE) Najarian noted positive price action from RIMM and AAPL, but GOOG and AMZN still falter. Macke said ORCL’s lackluster performance was a sign the recession has hit software. Najarian said many were fooled by Adobe’s run before earnings, but even this stock is back down. Macke doesn’t think Apple is worth buying at $140, but liked it as a value stock at $120. Najarian predicted the stock will trade sideways until the launch of a 3G phone. Najarian predicts a “monster quarter” for RIMM on its dramatic increase in subscriptions and penetration into China. Macke said he is waiting for a drop back to $100 and says the company’s products make Apple’s gadgets seem like toys.

Retail: J.C. Penney (JCP), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Nordstrom (JWN) Karen Finerman said JCP was unfairly punished with its 7% fall, and would scale into the stock. Macke noted JCP and WSM have set “preposterously low” targets which they aim to beat even with lukewarm results. JWN soared thanks to a positive Goldman rating, said Najarian, and looks like a buy on April 8 or 9 when it reports same-store sales for March.

Food: Burger King (BKC), McDonald’s (MCD) Najarian likes BKC on news it is opening a Whopper Bar where customers can customize their sandwiches and is offering more kind of coffee, a high-margin product. Macke said BKC to “stick to its knitting,” thought the Whopper bar was reminiscent of casual dining, and would sell.

Domino's Pizza (DPZ) CEO David Brandon To combat rising prices on soft commodities, David Brandon discussed his strategy to offer customers three medium pizzas for $4, so they may be encouraged to buy higher margin items. Finerman said the incentive was interesting, but is concerned about rising gas prices and the effect on the pizza delivery business.

Energy: Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH), Marathon (MRO), Hercules (HERO)

Both Gold and oil have both risen and Najarian suggests selling whatever has gone the highest. He predicts oil will pullback to $100, but not as low as $80. He would use puts on OIH as it approaches $180. He suggested looking at HERO as well as MRO, because the latter is seeing insider buying.

Financial: Lehman Brothers (LEH), Fannie Mae (FNM) Finerman and Macke said while volatility is decreasing, it is still a trader’s market. Najarian predicts volatility will increase again. He thinks LEH might be headed for the same fate as Bear Stearns, and that people stopped buying puts in LEH. Finerman says mortgages might be back and she would consider being long financials, particularly FNM. She thinks the Federal Reserve will step back.

Healthcare: Aetna (AET), Wellcare (WCG)

Najarian thinks healthcare has taken an unfair beating in the last quarter and would not sell AET or WCG if they rise, but would ride them out.

S & P 500

Macke predicts the S & P 500 will rise 5to 6%, but there will be a lot of peaks and valleys. He would sell rips and buy dips.

Agriculture: Monsanto (MON), Mosaic (MOS), DuPont (DD), Agrium (AGU) Najarian prefers DD and AGU to MON and MOS.

IAC/InterActive (IACI):

CEO Barry Diller has received the green light to break up the company, and Finerman sees this as a strategy to create value. Macke would sell the stock. Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI): was among the most actively traded stocks on the Nasdaq during the week.

Dennis Gartman: Commodities

The government will release its yearly crop planting report on Monday, and Dennis Gartman predicted farmers will have difficulty producing corn to meet demands for ethanol. He added wheat has peaked and supply of beans will outstrip demand. Gartman is bullish on corn and bearish on beans.

Fast Fire: Valero (VLO), Tesoro (TSO), Sunoco (SUN), Nokia (NOK), Texas Instruments (TXN)

Finerman says refiners have bottomed, they are still in range and she is still long VLO, TSO and SUN. Najarian likes TSO. He added he is standing by his NOK recommendation, adding the stock was adversely affected by bad news from TXN. Macke confessed he was fooled by Oracle, but thinks it might rise in another quarter or two. Najarian would not buy software.

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