VeraSun's Corn Costs - Another Bearish Sign for Ethanol Stocks

Let's see how VeraSun faired with its first quarter corn costs:

VeraSun's Daily Corn Bids for 1Q2008

The average price from January 2nd to March 31st for VeraSun's three plants - Aurora (120), Fort Dodge (110), and Charles City (110) - was a horrific $4.84 per bushel. The Linden (110) and Albion (110) plants are not accounted for as their daily corn bids are not available. In its previous quarters, VeraSun has paid an average of $3.61 per bushel (fourth), $3.32 per bushel (third), $3.62 per bushel (second), and $4.05 per bushel (first).

If this isn't bad enough, the USDA stated today that farmers are expected to plant 86 million acres of corn this year, down 8% from 93.6 million in 2007. The cut in supply only means that corn prices will go even higher. May corn on the CBOT jumped 6.6 cents today to $5.67 per bushel.

Just another bad day in the ethanol industry!

Comments

[Itsjustal]

You need to read the transcript of the most recent conference call held by VSE's management. You will see that the profit margin per gallon of manufactured ethanol remains in a certain band no matter how the price of corn fluctuates.You will also gain insight into how VSE keeps its corn costs to a minimum relative to the commodity market place.Seriously, I read your snippet as if it were written by someone sho actually is shorting VSE....Its thesis is really flawed.Get the correct facts concerning the impact of corn costs on its margins from VSE. I'm sure they will share the same information with you that they did with industry analysts....

[KonradImielinski]

All I'm doing is estimating VeraSun's corn costs for the first quarter. In the most recent conference call, VeraSun stated that corn should be in the range of $4.45 to $4.55 per bushel but it looks like they underestimated. VeraSun did this before, I believe in its second quarter conference call, when they estimated corn costs to be in the $2.90-$3.00 range for the third quarter but in actuality they ended up paying an average of $3.32. This news isn't good to hear.

[Itsjustal]

The problem with your article is that it did not address the true impact of corn prices on VSE's production margins. The fact is that VSE's pricing structure is capable of absorbing the rising cost of corn and keeping their margins inside a band. VSE explained it very well to probing analysts. The implications contained in your artilce were just way off base, IMO. I also read your blog site. Almost every single article attacks pubicly traded ethanol companies. Frankly, I suspect that you are shorting stocks, and using the placement of your "articles" on this website to attack your latest targets. All anyone has to do is read your various blogs and see that its contents do not match up with the asserted purpose of your site. Then, all that person has to do is ask the questions "what is he up to?" and "why?". The answers that I reached gave rise to my suspicions....

[KonradImielinski]

Please explain: "The fact is that VSE's pricing structure is capable of absorbing the rising cost of corn and keeping their margins inside a band."

And no I am not shorting any ethanol stocks. If you haven't realized, the ethanol sector has been in a crap hole for quite some time now. The incentive to invest in this sector is minimal as all I'm doing is stating the facts.

[Itsjustal]

For the last time, read the transcript of VSE's latest conference call. VSE explains it very well itself. The fact that this information is in the public domain and readily available with little research effort speaks volumes about your lack of interest in accurately portraying the exact impact of corn prices on VSE's profit margins. Also, there is no way here for me to personally verify that you are not shorting ethanol stocks. However, the content of most of the articles on your blog site do not match up with the stated purpose of your website. I believe my suspicions are fair. And, yes, the ethanol industry would love to have wider profit margins, but it is not the unmitigated disaster you would have readers believe.....In my opinion, when all of your blog pieces are reviewed together in their entirety, it is fair to question your intent here.