Under The Radar News - Tuesday

Cooling commodities. WSJ says the credit crisis may put out the fiery commodities rally amid rising margins and spooked traders. "The easy money in commodities trade is over," one analyst says. Bulls counter recent declines are bull market lulls, and a chance for those not yet inside to join the party. Analysts say grains and natural gas still seem strong, but they're scared by the high prices of palladium. WSJ's sister publication, Barron's, already dissed commodities this weekend.

Tough quarter for underwriters. JPMorgan (JPM) ousted Citigroup (C) as top underwriter in Q1 in a battle for a half-full pot. Global underwriting volume was down 45% to $1.27T. Wall Street I-Banks took in just $5.8B in fees, down 47%. Bankers said part of Citi's fall from first was a result of moves by new CEO Vikram Pandit to avoid less-profitable deals with which it padded its books in the past. The quarter was marked by "evaporating deals, idle bankers and shrinking volume," one banker said. Buyout loans plunged 88% to just $5.4B, and overall loans fell 55% to $166B.

$140B and counting. With today's UBS (UBS) and Deutsche Bank (DB) writedowns, the global writedown-o-meter passed $140B. A lot of money, to be sure, but it pales when compared to the $10T SWFs will manage by 2015 -- almost quintupling from a present $3.3T. SWFs are doing their part to buttress the books: They have pumped more than $60B into financials since the credit bubble broke.

Soros on tzores. Speaking in a BBC documentary to be aired tonight, billionaire investor George Soros warns the global economy is at the tail end of a "super boom" whose unwinding will be deeper than many expect. "The financial industry will have to shrink... and of course the indebtedness of the American consumer will have to shrink. The U.S. currently consumes 6% more than it produces - that will have to come down. So it's an adjustment, but it will be a very painful adjustment."

Apples falling off the tree. Apple (AAPL) stores, including the online store, have been virtually devoid of iPhones for days. Apple has yet to provide an official explanation for the shortage; new models are at best still months away. "They're just popular," one worker said.

AT&T iPhone revenue: A cool $2B. A new survey shows 47% of iPhone (AAPL) users were new to AT&T (T), meaning the device could deliver a meaningful $2B in new wireless revenue to the carrier. The wildcard: Despite endless speculation, no one really knows how much of the revenue-sharing cake stays with AT&T and how much goes to Apple. Upwards of 50% of iPhone owners use the device in place of a laptop; 10% of iPhone users also carry a BlackBerry (RIMM) and 1/3 carry two phones.

Credit crisis eats up two years of profits. Financial services are "facing the most severe investment banking crisis in 30 years," Morgan Stanley analysts say. Earnings in the sector may take close to two years to recover. Six quarters' worth of earnings may have already been lost, and that could rise to 7.5 to 9.5 quarters of earnings. "The substantial and sharp moves in credit markets, intense funding pressures, and a reduction in aggregate leverage continue to cause us real concern, driving our near-term caution," it said.

Hackers own Mac, PC - owned by Linux. In a hacker torture test, super-hackers were turned loose on computers running Apple's (AAPL) OS, Vista (MSFT) and Linux Ubuntu. The results: Apple's MacBook Air was the first to fall, followed by the Vista PC. Hackers gave up on the Linux box.

Buyouts top Weakest Links list. With new deals all but dried up, the buyout story of 2008 may be... defaults. Of 114 companies on S&P's Weakest Links list of companies most in danger of debt default, at least 42 are buyout-backed.

Yields yield. Yields on savings accounts and money-market accounts are diving since the Fed's latest rate cuts. ING Direct (ING) and Washington Mutual (WM) dropped yields on their deposit accounts, while average CD yields are now 1.95% to 2.75%, down from 4% last fall. Smaller banks are still offering higher-yield savings accounts for now, and Countrywide Bank (CFC) has a 12-month 4.2% CD promo. Firms that need money for mortgage lending, like Countrywide and IndyMac (IMB) are also a good address for higher-yield CDs. [Another theory: Freaked-out investors mean banks feel less of a need to compete with high-yield bonds, so they can get away with paying less.]

Hynix to cut NAND capacity. Hynix Semi plans to cut NAND flash production due to oversupply and falling prices. The cut will drop worldwide capacity by about 5%, and the impact should start being seen in Q2. On the one hand, this may take some pressure off SanDisk (SNDK); on the other, it may indicate more hard times to come.

IGP to get DirectX 10 - finally. Motherboard makers say Intel (INTC) plans to unveil a DirectX 10 driver for its IGP chipsets by the end of April. So will you now be able to play Crysis at full FPS on your integrated-graphics-chip laptop? Not likely.

MBIA's new CEO Jay Brown: Did rating agencies make the situation worse? "This industry, because it had never had a life-threatening, industrywide credit event, didn't react quickly to go to the capital markets. The rating agencies didn't insist from the very beginning -- let's say back in, this is my guess, back in September, October, November -- hey, we're going into this, the world's going to change very dramatically, you ought to go get more capital. Instead, what you saw was, in the case of MBIA (MBI), they started and announced in mid-December they were going to raise capital. By then, the stock had already dropped by two-thirds."

AAR Corp. falling. AAR Corp. (AIR) is down over 10% after the WSJ reported the FAA issued a safety alert about substandard landing-gear parts for hundreds of Boeing (BA) jets last week. The FAA notice details more than 300 instances when AAR shipped "unapproved" parts, and recommends airlines stop installing the affected parts currently in inventory until a final agency determination. A decision to replace a significant number of parts could disrupt airline schedules, and carriers could find it tough to round up enough replacement parts.

Comments

[H2O]

New Flash - From The Year 2025 - On the Hillary campaign trail today - She is calling for a re-vote - of all the primary’s once again - Knowing how treating she is - There will be another Hillary "Genetic Savings & Clone" Democratic Primary.

Looking Back before the Days of a the Hillary clone - The HGH did very little - To save the original - Hillary-Rocky-Rodham-Clinton - But did produce a fighter - That will never give-up...

In the mean time – Another – Prez has been elected from the Newly formed Party – Of the first year - of the 21 year Hillary run for office

In other news – Bill Clinton has once again been sighted – With Elvis – driving a Cadillac across Florida and Michigan.

Stay tuned for more breaking news – On the begging of the 21st anniversary of a Hillary run for prez – IN The Long Lost - democratic primary.

[phlash]

I read 5 negative to very negative outlooks above and yet banks and financials climbed significantly...I am sure glad that reporting outlets like Seekingalpha and Minyanville exist to provide the facts along with references...if a tech company had the issues anyone of these financial companies have...it's stock price would tank significantly more...I almost feel like a number of the mainstream press are on the payrolls of the FED and Big Investment houses to provide false hope and misinformation...

Have a great day!

Peace

[beedee]

I agree PHLASH ! When they lower the rates again (and they will), we'll be seeing another "pop" in the financials. When the rate (now at 2.25%) is down to 1.5 or lower...every senior citizen on a fixed income that counts on interest from savings or CD's to supplement his/her already low income will find themselves deciding on which to purchase...heat, gas or food the next time they leave the house.
This mess cannot be fixed by lowering interest rates...it's a shame, with all this country's intellectuals, economists, think tanks and "analyst's" the media has more influence than all of them combined.
I simply haven't figured out what they are intent on doing here...a 12-18 month recession is imminent...that'll show them...and you, and me and the rest of the world...yikes !

[H2O]

I don't think Obama Has To Assuage - Anybody
on His Rev's remarks.

Does America need to be Assuage - That all Chatholics
- Are not child-molesters????

Does Americans need to be Assuage - That all republican
senators are gay in the restrooms????

Does Americans need to be Assuage - That All Clinton supporters
- Are delusional LIars????

Does Americans of any race need to Assuage - That everybody from
another race are bad and need opressing????

WEll I for one will never subscribe to such - IDIOTIC RACISM - Of
this Type of Assumptions - About a whole groupe of People - Based
on one IDIOTIC self centered view.

This is the very type of IDIOTIC RACISM - That leads to genocides.

Simple Example: Only Good Indian - Is a Dead Indian.

and sorry forgot Assuage - is a once used 14th centry term:
1 : to lessen the intensity of (something that pains or distresses) :
ease <unable to assuage their grief>
2 : pacify, quiet <vainly strove…to assuage an implacable foe — Edward Gibbon>
3 : to put an end to by satisfying : appease, quench

Obama Speech Fails to Assuage White Indiana Voters

news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080401/pl_b...

[hotta fire]

Soros Video:

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/help/3681938.stm