Tuesday's Rally Shows How Much Negativity Was Priced In 3 comments
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One of the most important things to know about investing is that the
stock market is a discounting mechanism. That means
that expectations for future events are reflected in stock prices ahead
of time, before the events
actually occur. People who try to guess what the headlines next week
are going to be, and invest accordingly, might not make any money in
the market. Remember, stock prices go up or down not based on how well
the underlying companies do, but rather how well the companies do relative to the market's expectations.
I bring this up because today's market action shows us that a lot of bad news has already been priced into equities. UBS (UBS) reported astonishing writedowns of $19 billion and Lehman Brothers (LEH) raised $4 billion of capital even though they claim they don't really need it. Pretty bad headlines, but the Dow is up 260 points as I write this. Last month when Bear Stearns (BSC) nearly
went belly-up the market reacted by dropping 1%, and has risen ever
since. Many might have expected a far worse reaction to such startling
news.
Now, this is not to say we are completely out of the woods
and the market will soar from here. In fact, I think we will be
range-bound for the foreseeable future. That said, it appears that
things would have to get significantly worse for the market to take a
huge hit from current levels. Hopefully first quarter earnings reports
won't have any big negative surprises. If that is the case, those who
are claiming we are in a bottoming process might be right, in the short
term anyway.
Full Disclosure: No positions in the companies mentioned at the time of writing
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Could it be that Tues rally was nothing buy short covering? Since the banks led the way up I think there is a good chance that the shorts were falling over each other to see who could get out first.