Amylin Pharmaceuticals Stock Is Catching A Bid

Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) has really been on a tear these past two trading days. As a long term holder of AMLN this is a pleasant development. However, I have to ask why the sudden jump in the stock over the past two trading sessions? There are several reasons for the sudden rise of AMLN of which any one or a combination of could be causing the rise. Here are some of those causal factors:

• The stock was simply too oversold and short interest climbed too high;
• With all of the negative news about Zetia from Schering Plough (SGP) and Lipitor from Pfizer (PFE) and other statins, perhaps someone finally woke up to the fact that diabetes treatment is all that much more important and the big cap pharmaceutical companies may be forced to buy AMLN;
• The decline of the inhaled insulin product lines gives AMLN approved and commercially available products – Byetta and Symlin - more credibility and sales potential.

I continue to believe that AMLN Byetta LAR long acting formulation will be approved and once that occurs we will see a huge jump in analysts estimates and future sales. That is at least a year out, but well worth the wait as Byetta and Symlin sales continue to grow.

Disclosure: At the time of this Blog entry Scott Rothbort, his family and or clients of LakeView Asset Management, LLC were long shares of AMLN.

Comments

[turd furgeson:]

This company has more waste than a sewer, and is managed terribly. Buyout rumors are all that will bid this dog up.

2008 Apr 02 07:00 PM

[Telling it ...:]

In reply to the previous comment, diabetes is a serious disease and Amylin has given diabetics a chance to win with this horrible disease. They have given us two incredible life changing medications. These are what make the stock price go up!

2008 Apr 02 10:01 PM

[turd furgeson:]

give me a break

2008 Apr 03 09:03 AM

[turd furgeson:]

LAR is not as pretty as it sounds. Mix the powder, draw the mixed product, bigger needle....all leads to bad patient / doctor experience. Symlin for obesity???....they barely made it thru the FDA for Type 1 diabetes (insulin being the only other med obviously) what in the world makes one think it will sail thru the FDA for weight loss? I respectfully disagree that this company has any sustained value for shareholders. I maintain that a buyout or buyout rumors are all that will "bid this stock up." Byetta and Symlin are great products for SOME patients with T2DM. The management team is bad for ALL investors.

2008 Apr 05 08:58 PM

[Oxnard Floo...:]

I have diabetes. Byetta has brought my A1c to 6.1 from the mid 7's. 6 is normal for non-diabetics, 7 normal for diabetics. Most important, I've gotten away from the additional insulin that virtually all other medications stimulate. More insulin means more weight gain/virtually impossible to lose weight. Most diabetics (including me) are overweight. This drug is a truly miracle drug for the millions and millions of type two diabetics now and in the future. LAR is supposed to work even better.

I bought the stock because I think a great product, especially in health care, will sell well. Call me crazy. I ignore all the charts and the volatility of the stock. In my opinion, the numbers always win and the sales of this drug should go up and up and up (even if slowly). I'm in this for 3-5 years.

2008 Apr 20 08:38 PM

[turd furgeson:]

The products are great, and really work well for some people. The key is they are not miracle products that work in ALL people. The management is just plain god awful in my humble opinion, as they have the big pharma spend spend spend mentality, without the big pharma budget. A buyout is the only way to win in AMLN stock.

2008 Apr 21 02:57 PM

[turd furgeson:]

And down, down, down she goes.

2008 Apr 22 10:33 AM

[turd furgeson:]

Covered my short today and buying LEAPS with profits. Keep your fingers crossed for a LLY buyout. We are gonna need it because alone this stock isn't worth more than 25. Icahn needs to place a management team here.

2008 Jun 09 03:41 PM

[turd furgeson:]

Hey Scott, are you and your customers totally broke yet?

2008 Jul 14 06:27 PM