A $1Million Wager for Gold Bears

Gold bullion is under water at the moment with the price having dived sharply over the past two weeks. This move has triggered a myriad opinions ranging from the end of gold’s 7-year bull market, to a simple, healthy correction in an ongoing uptrend.

However, few pundits have as strong a conviction as Jim Sinclair who is putting his money where his mouth is – $1 million smackaroos, to be exact, that the gold price will trade at $1,650 before the second week of January 2011. Any takers? (Let’s hope this is not Jim’s version of an April Fool’s hoax!)

Source: Jim Sinclair’s MineSet, April 1, 2008.

Comments

[Robert J]

Almost 3 years for gold to trade at $1650? I am a gold bull, but I don't see $1650 any time soon. At least once in the next 3 years? Probably.

[rosebow]

Who can predict tomorrow nevertheless what gold will
be in January 2011?

[User 171915]

$1650 is possible sometime in the future, however, the rampant market manipulation we're currently witnessing will push it to $650-700 first!

[Hugh]

No one knows what the price of gold will be. Jim Sinclair is a Kook. Go to his site. Looks like a something dreamed up from a mental institution.

[cyber_rigger]

Gold has historically held its value.

Fiat money has historically failed.

The United States switched from a gold/silver standard to fiat standard on Aug. 15 1971 as shown here on this inflation chart.

www.economics-charts.com/images/cpi-1800...

[low]

It seems I've become one of those poor smucks who just talks to hear himself talking. Like: I smell a sucker play building up and since I'm mining and not holding (temptation @ 888 & -), you gotta know where I'd gladly stand. My guys will keep digging, even if I have to dig with'm. My bet is cheaper money
ALL THE WAY AROUND THE GLOBE. I made a joke about gold back down to less than 500, might happen
(never know).

But if gut feelings count for anything, I'd hold for dear life. Why? By 2011 gold could be marching past 2500. And that last 2500 you got in the bank may need to be divided between the mortgage, utilities, groceries and misc. other bills-at that time! The thing
about my position is, if we're good for 25% of the market price per ounce on a per share basis a few of those bumps in the road phase little.

OF COURSE I SHOULDN'T SAY IT but whose commercial paper stands alone at crunch time? Well, thanks to Credit Crunch everybodies' gets a chance at
bat as we speak!

[Philly Jim]

I think gold's uptrend will continue as governments and people continue to purchase it and miners continue to have difficulties extracting as much as they did and as energy efficiently as they did in the past. Initially I thought it was way too expensive and was waiting for it to pull back down to 400 but saw that demand, especially from India, has been picking-up significantly. Now China is trading gold futures and as their currency rises and they have more purchasing power, you can bet the most popular metal with Asian will rise as well. Unless bird flu wipes them all out as predicted.

[low]

Oh yes, forgot to mention: I forget the year-think was the late eighties or early nineties. I was prepared to bet my last dollar on gold. But an "Expert" told me, the
price of gold will never go up again. You can call the year, it was at 390 an ounce and this little mess we're
all facing now was in it's germination phase then. So
tell me, if a 1,000 was ludacris 20 years ago:
What are you willing to bet that 16-2600 is all that much a joke now? All things considered, of course.

[maher]

Sinclair is wrong: Not in Jan 2011, but 2009- Max 2010.

Low, you said 16-2600; you are a careless(lazy) writer; Come on psuh yourself, move that finger to press "00" after the "16". I bet you failed mathematics in high school.

And and one more thing: Hugh, you're an idiot.

[benson]

I have been following Jim Sinclair for more than 6years on his website and I can assure you that his prognostications are invariably true. There is noone, and I repeat noone,who has the same amount of experience as he has in the gold market. How many analysts call the tops and bottoms and end up with egg on their faces time after time. Jim has always maintained that gold would continue to go up and has indicated the stages it would go through with great accuracy.
Would you rather listen to a spotty faced 20yr something who has never seen inflation or a professional who not only owns his own gold mine but has been in this business for 60yrs plus.
my money is on jim all the way

[misterchan]

An $800 price of gold in 1980 translates to approx. $2200 in 2008 as measured by inflation. So, actually, gold is underpriced at this time and $1650 is a very modest prognostication. Which, if it pans out, would make gold a tremendous bargain. For instance, in 1946, a pound of See's Candy was $1.20. Today it is $14.00. So, actually, the price of gold does not reflect inflationary momentum. Today gold is a bargain at $900.

[john2]

to all you people who are saying who can predict tomorrow or thats stupid etc. your all hilarious for reading this article and then dismissing it when on it has a challenge directly to you. yeah you believe that it wont then accept the challenge or at least comment on it saying something like "i would but all of its tied up right now". or "there's better ways to place a million dollars".

[benson]

John2 - would you like to rephrase that?

[Abe Mishima]

His bet is written like an options contract, namely a call. He has nearly 3 years to exercise it. So, I would not bet against him. As long as the central banks do not unload the asset, and no new major disoveries are made, he is safe. We will probably experience hyperinflation, once the world realizes how worthless American currency is.

[low]

First, Maher-You are a cold man! Second, John2-Obviously both you and Mr. Sinclaire are generous souls. I would thank you both but so much remains
to be seen. Now, in the real moment I'm afraid I
must confess-I could be wrong but I think it's not so
much the holders of said item to affect the price.

For example:

Should the producers ever conclude they've got us all by the balls, then this move news.goldseek.com/JamesTurk/1192554861.php
may just prove a futile effort! As always, your views
are most welcome.

[Sandor]

Hundreds of billions for Iraq here. Tens of billions to float our investment banks there. Tens of billions to ease commercial paper transactions. More mortgage defaults on the way. Rising food, fuel and commodity prices. A dollar that went from an average net value of 20% + on the Euro in 2000, to an average net value of -60% today (that's an 80% loss in value if you can't do math)...a shrinking economy full of consumers who are maxed out on their credit cards, mortgages and car payments. And a Fed with little to gain by raising interest rates (thereby stifling whatever life is left in our economy and making our exports more expensive)....You got to wonder where to turn? Our money's no damn good. Gold? Well, it's a finite resource. Only so much of it on the planet. Platinum and silver too. This stuff always had a value since recorded human history. Let the markets and these idiots on Wall St. fumble about until we can get a clear sense of what the future holds. In the meantime, I suggest you putting your money in something real. I think gold is a good bet...she may not gain, but she sure as hell isn't going back to $300 an ounce. I'll dive back into equities and bonds and will hold cash after this schizophrenic market comes down to reality. For that, we need to weed out the weak and the corrupt. That's how we truly strengthen our economy. Sorry, but that's what recessions are for.

[low]

Well my friend, don't ever say "I told you this". I'm only referring us back to a series of events and thats
only to illuminate. God forbid it should reach such a
stage but contemplate this:

www.fgmr.com/confiscation.htm .

It seems to me that should any government discern
itself to be this vulnerable, it's a bad sign for the general populace. And for damn near all to be, gives
one pause. I had a curious thought just before some
writer mirrored the idea. Despite all the pomp and splendor, theres looking to be new members added to
the present "Third World Roster"! Hope no one got offended at that. But I would suggest we pay more
attention to whats going on around here.

[low]

OK, this corrects my time frame for gold at 380,
www.fgmr.com/manipulate.htm .

[low]

Gentlepersons,

I don't know if I'd encourage you to read any further into that FMR. Too much truth will give you a
headache or worse.

[low]

It was a rep. of Blanchard & Co. who told me the price of gold would never go www.gata.org/node/20 . For my part, that doesn't matter so much now. But for those requiring some further reference points for their future investment strategies, it may be helpful to consider!

[loaddown]

For all you paper trading, millisecond attention-span, get rich quick geniuses: Check Mr. Sinclair's integrity, credentials, history and wealth.
There is a little known, long forgotten, methodology that he well knows; FUNDAMENTALS and WISDOM. Try it some time, if you have any funds left, when reality hits you.

[low]

I'm afraid I'm not sure how to react to Mr. Loaddown but I will bypass politics with my response. No
doubt there are numerous highly ethical participants involved in the markets. Under the prevailing circumstances, get rich quick has practically been ruled out.

The issue now becomes, how does one possibly profit operating in areas where you don't know what to expect because you no longer are certain whom you may trust. And the ones you may trust, don't always
have the deciding vote. Example:
If I were sitting on 200 billionUSD which I questioned the future value of, but still wanted to help you out-like you or not. Among the real estate I'd be
looking to accumulate, www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarch... think i'd be shopping among the Brits on the way over. (And not so much for real estate either) So would allow the possibility that at least a few of us have some snipit of a notion whats going down?

[low]

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarch... ;;sid=af0bgSCH6E1g

Sorry!

[low]

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarch... ;;sid=af0bgSCH6E1g

[low]

Well I guess you all know what you need to do to see that page as intended.