The "Ben is My Friend" Trade

With the liquidation of the short exposure, I have over $400K cash so I need to find some things to buy - these are the areas I have begun layering into... I call this the "Ben is my friend" trade. Since I don't trust Ben, I am not buying favorites such as Fannie Mae (FNM) or Lehman Brothers (LEH) but I'll go with some of current holdings....

1. We've been watching Apple (AAPL) [Mar 26: Apple now at Inflection Point] and said we'd be buying over mid $140s - which we are now - so we buy. In my old days I'd be afraid of buying with Research in Motion reporting but in socialized markets there is nothing to fear but fear itself.
2. Infrastructure Shaw Group (SGR) - no idea why this stock has been trashed, continue to add
3. Fertilizer Mosaic (MOS) and Potash (POT) - Mosaic's chart could be a case for a short seller, but the best fundamentals out there. Maybe they will say something conservative and it's leaking out and that's why we have this weakness - or maybe its just hedge fund liquidations. Either way I see materially higher prices in a year.
4. Iron ore Cleveland Cliffs (CLF)
5. Russian steel/iron ore/coal Mechel (MTL)
6. Oil service Core Laboratories (CLB)
7. Brazilian homebuilder Gafisa (GFA)
8. Mexican homebuilder Homex (HXM) - I want every homebuilder in the world in my portfolio now - free money for everyone

I so believe in Ben and his powers that I believe even hated commodities could come back so I began to add back both gold and crops

1. Kinross Gold (KGC) - just a touch
2. Powershares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) - just a touch, will add more north of $38.50 if we get there

Now I understand most of what I bought was not the type of stuff that "2nd half recovery, early cycle" crowd loves - but a rising tide lifts all boats... so if we get days and days, and weeks and weeks, and months and months of socialized markets every stock should rise - even stocks in terrible sectors like fertilizer, Brazil, Russia, oil, infrastructure. I mean, why bother with those areas when you can get a financial or retailer? I only hope the market shows pity on these "laggard" groups and allows them to go up someday too. I mean in a Socialist market all stocks should go up equally, no? Or is that Communism?

Disclosure: I don't trust a single buy above and if the S&P 500 breaks below 1350 I will disavow every word I typed above, erase this entry, and simply put up the word's April Fool's, and go back to bashing early cycle stocks.

Disclosure: If we stay above S&P 1350 I will erase the disclosure above and invite everyone to my pool party in which the pool is full of cherry Kool Aid.

Disclosure: On Realmoney.com, Jim Cramer has called this the bottom @ 2:53 PM, his 9th such call since October 2007. You know what they say, if at first you don't succeed try, try, try, try, try, try, try,try, try again. (that's 9 tries for those counting at home). Or is it "the 9th times a charm"?

Disclosure: Long all names except Lehman Brothers and Fannie Mae in fund; long Mosaic in personal account

Comments

[Mr Mortgage:]

there will be no 2nd half recovery...the street has been trying to shove that down everyone's throat for 3 weeks now. In the last 24-hours the IMF and Berne confirmed the US economy is not in a trough and GDP will likely be flat to lower into 2009. And that is a best-case housing recovery, which will not happen.

2008 Apr 02 10:08 PM

[Mr Mortgage:]

good disclaimers by the way.

2008 Apr 02 10:10 PM

[Wisdom-Seeker:]

Apropos of Cramer, how about 9 lives gone, and the crazy cat's reputation is now dead?

2008 Apr 02 11:30 PM

[xander:]

jcc is just trying to do what lou rukeheiser used to do

2008 Apr 03 04:11 AM

[HarMegiddo:]

you don't seem to even trust yourself?? go do some chartology, you will feel better in your trades.

2008 Apr 06 10:56 PM

[HarMegiddo:]

ps. crammer as i call him, is a self absorbed, money squandering, schill. you are better off not listening to him at all, he will infect you thinking.

2008 Apr 06 10:57 PM