RIMM's BlackBerry: Pure Domination

Research in Motion (RIMM) has been the darling of the working crowd for some time. Nothing has yet to come close to their capabilities with email push-technology. Email has become the mainstay of corporate life, along with text messaging, and anyone who has used a BlackBerry device is fully aware of its addictive nature.

Yet recently, in walks Apple (AAPL) with an announcement that along with the release of its SDK development kit, it will be looking to lock horns with RIMM as it will also be offering a form of push-technology in the next release of the iPhone. Microsoft (MSFT) has also been nipping at the heals of RIMM as it would like to produce a device that has all of the features of the BlackBerry along with a suite of Microsoft products.

So, where does that leave RIMM? From the looks of earnings, it does not seem to matter much what these other pesky companies say or do as their infiltration into the handset market is widespread and earnings are here to prove it. After hours Wednesday, the stock popped up in response to the good news, confirming that RIMM is still firmly in the driver’s seat.

According to the Marketwire release:

Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 was $1.88 billion, up 102% from $930.4 million in the same quarter of last year. The revenue breakdown for the quarter was approximately 81% for handhelds, 14% for service, 3% for software and 2% for other revenue. Revenue for the fiscal year ended March 1, 2008 was $6.01 billion, up 98% from $3.04 billion last year. RIM shipped 4.4 million smartphones in the fourth quarter and approximately 14 million smartphones during fiscal 2008.

Approximately 2.18 million net new BlackBerry(R) subscriber accounts were added in the quarter. At the end of the quarter, the total BlackBerry subscriber account base was over 14 million.

Longer Term Outlook

The chart for RIMM shows a breakout that occurred just over $112. Even with the recent volatility, the stock has not seen a great deal of downdraft and the next level for a longer term invetment is $132, the level it reached last November. Downside towards $99 is now what will become the next floor if momentum does not continue, but it does seem more realistic that the $115 level will be support if an earnings based breakout cannot hold.

Downside? Until corporate America decides to switch to another service, (which is hard to imagine) Research in Motion should continue to dominate with over a 55% worldwide market share.

A word to Apple and Microsoft: Be careful here...remember what happened to Palm?

Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients do not hold position in security mentioned as of the publish date.

Comments

[Thoughtful]

What's with the dire warning to Apple??? RIMM is a CELLPHONE company--Apple is a multifaceted technology company, focused mainly on making the greatest computers on the planet and hardly equivalent to Palm, who also only made one product.
Room for everyone to play, don't you think?

[Jon T]

RIM's sales are a lagging indicator. Times are a changing and iPhone is going to sweep it aside.

Just look at the 14 months of innovation that went into copying yesterdays iPhone - the Blackberry 9000 is a mimicking mess.

A subscriber base of 14m is going to look like nothing against the iPhone by the end of next year

[Tom B]

Jon T is correct. You have a choice: buy RIMM, which could crater at any time, or go Apple, a diversified tech company with a phone that's easily as far ahead of other handsets as the iPod was ahead of other MP3 players when introduced.

[Ken Singh]

Folks-this this the "Enron Scam Replay Book Scam"

PLAYER in scam pit is same too: TD BANK/RBC CAPITAL/CITI/LEHAMN/GS/AXA/FIDELITY....m...

No analyst crook has mentioned any negative on this "ONE PONZI WONDER SCAM MANIPULATION AND BUBBLE PUMP? DUMP GAME"

((BUST RED FLAG FOR THEI ONE PONZI WONDER: MOBILE CARRIERS DEPENDANCE))

What are mobile carriers introducing ?Home grown smart devices with white label push email and Analyst future earnings estimates spin scam bakes in 50% consumer into the mix and Consumer is not buying One ponzi wonder push email but SMS & Total Internet Browsing thrill.....iPHONE only the device which has user interface and Full browsing thrill capability.

81% revenue from BB plastic device
11% underlying one ponzi wonder called push email and here the problem the World Nations face from this one ponzi wonder push email National Security threat?
DEBATE

Business Standard / New Delhi April 02, 2008

Is the Blackberry email a security threat? business-standard.com/common/news_articl... ;;subLeft=2&chklogin=N&autono=31...

RIMM Earnings Preview: Analysts Giving Mixed Signals
posted on: April 01, 2008 | about stocks: RIMM

Research In Motion (RIMM) shares are higher heading into the company’s announcement tomorrow afternoon of earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter ended February. The Street is looking for $1.85 billion in revenue and EPS of 70 cents. Also keep an eye on the outlook: the consensus for the May quarter is $2.01 billion and 75 cents. For FY 2009, the Street sees $9.23 billion and $3.48, which would be up from a forecast $5.98 billion and $2.24 for FY ‘08.

Late yesterday, Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek raised his estimates on the company. He writes that channel checks in North America and Europe lead him to believe that “results will be on the higher end to above guidance and Q1 is tracking ahead of consensus.” Misek says he is “hearing more chatter around a possible clamshell device, touch screen device and the much anticipated 3G handset,” and that “the impact of the aforementioned product launches, particularly the 3G device, is being underestimated” by the Street.

For Q4, he remains at $1.89 billion and 72 cents. For FY ‘09, he goes to $9.87 billion and $3.89, from $9.34 billion and $3.60. For FY 2010, he goes to $13.68 billion and $5.66, from $12.36 billion and $5. Misek maintains a Buy rating and $150 price target on the stock.

Nomura’s Richard Windsor is far more cautious; this morning he repeated his Sell rating on the stock. He thinks there is considerable downside risk in the shares if the Street is not impressed with the company’s outlook. “All around the industry, companies are catching cold as the economic slowdown impacts the high end of the market in both North America and Europe,” Windsor writes. “RIM’s target market remains less than 5% penetrated but net-adds are only half the story.

This quarter RIM will derive 50% of its shipments from replacements and it is here where we see risk to expectations. Given the high valuation we think that any cautious commentary will result in a sharp correction. The rest of the industry is already reflecting this outlook and remains a far safer place to invest in our view.” Windsor’s price target: $68.

Today, however, belongs to Misek’s camp. RIMM is up $2.62, or 2.3%, to $114.85.
seekingalpha.com/article/70770-rimm-earn...

[Ken Singh]

PURE SCAM PUMP BY ANALYST CROOKS, NO ONE HAS MENTIONED INDIA MAJOR EVENT STORY UNFOLDING AND PUTTING "RIMM" BUSINESS MODEL IN JEOPARDY. HERE IS THE STORY:

DoT wants BlackBerry plan in a week
Rishi Raj
Posted online: Saturday , March 29, 2008 at 0015 hrs IST

New Delhi, Mar 28 The department of telecommunications (DoT) on Friday gave Research in Motion (RIM) of Canada a week to come up with a plan that permits legal interception of BlackBerry services.

DoT summoned the RIM representative and issued a stern warning, seeking a solution to the problem by the first week of April. According to DoT sources, the Cellular Operators’ Association of India (COAI) and Association of Unified Service Providers of India (Auspi) were also present during the meeting.

Friday’s meeting was called in response to a March 26 letter to DoT by RIM’s vice-president, global security group, Scott Totzke, highlighting the features BlackBerry services offered.

Sources said DoT officials told the RIM representative that the letter did not deal with the issues raised and that by the first week of April, a solution has to be provided by the company on how to legally intercept messages on BlackBerry.

Earlier, DoT had convened a meeting of the telecom operators on March 14 where it had in no uncertain terms told them that the BlackBerry services must have lawful interception as required by the security agencies.

DoT had then asked the service providers to outline a timeframe for implementing this service after discussions with RIM. DoT had also asked the service providers to submit a report on the global practices on interception of BlackBerry services, for which COAI had later sought more time.

BlackBerry services, which provides access to e-mail through push technology on mobile phones, is being offered by Bhart Airtel, Vodafone Essar and Reliance Communications.

Operators maintain that communications on a BlackBerry pass through a mobile network in a reformatted form and therefore the same can be intercepted on the mobile network. However, this is not possible where communication is from a BlackBerry device to another BlackBerry device.

As first reported by FE, the matter came to light recently when Tata Teleservices Ltd’s (TTSL) application for starting the BlackBerry services in India was rejected since there was no provision for lawful interceptions of the services

[Ken Singh]

*
Apr 03 08:55 AM
Enter your comment hereHERE IS AT&T BOMB:"NEW TILT FOR ENTERPRISE" BETTER THAN BB * iPHONE 26 minutes ago
New "Tilt" in the enterprise phone segment

BlackBerry , iPhone and now Tilt. AT&T is launching new enterprise segment phone. This has not been one of my favorite topics, but the enthusiasm raised by iphone has forced me to look into the features of new "Tilt". We might soon have them in India (Provided DoT acts fast on new applications for licences)

The new "Tilt" phone from AT&T, that may be available in mear future may become the next enterprise phone that may also fit the bill (unlike ipone).
AT&T says the Tilt is its first Windows Mobile 6 smart device, featuring a slide-out QWERTY keypad, a 3-megapixel camera, 3G data speeds from AT&T's UMTS/HSDPA-based BroadbandConnect network and complete global connectivity.
Windows Mobile 6 Tilt users get "the familiar look and feel of their desktop computers at home or in the office," the carrier says, enabling them to view e-mail in their original rich HTML format with live links to Web and Microsoft Office SharePoint sites. All Windows Mobile 6 devices include Microsoft's Direct Push Technology for e-mail delivery and automatic synchronization of Outlook calendars, tasks and contacts through Microsoft Exchange Server. Especially important to enterprises, Windows Mobile 6 offers important device security and management features, including capability to remotely wipe all data from a device should it be lost or stolen, thus helping to ensure that confidential information remains that way.
In addition to Microsoft Direct Push, the AT&T claims its Tilt will be "the first Windows Mobile device in North America to include BlackBerry Connect v4.0 software, which provides BlackBerry e-mail service, security and device management for IT administrators and the benefit for users of wireless synchronization of e-mail, calendar, contacts, task list and memo pad information." BlackBerry Connect v4.0 supports push e-mail for Microsoft Exchange, IBM Lotus Domino and Novell GroupWise through the BlackBerry Enterprise Server and personal e-mail through the BlackBerry Internet Service.
Customers also can use the Tilt to access personal e-mail through AT&T's Xpress Mail service. By completing five steps, AT&T customers can set up their Xpress Mail accounts and begin getting personal e-mail from most major POP3/IMAP personal e-mail services pushed to their AT&T Tilt at preset intervals. They also can sync their calendars, access contact lists and view attachments.
Designed by HTC, which really has been putting itself out there this year at wireless industry shows, the AT&T Tilt also features a 2.8-inch color screen that slides back to reveal a full QWERTY keyboard, and then it "tilts" up to position the screen for reading or creating e-mail, browsing online, using applications or just playing videos and games. The Tilt supports Bluetooth 2.0, allowing as many as six Bluetooth devices to be connected simultaneously to the device; Bluetooth Stereo also is supported.

BREAKING NEWS: RIMM SCAM IS BUST=MUST READ THIS NOW
Everyone is counting the days until Microsoft's Windows Mobile 6.1 release," Levy says.

"I'll be looking for specific product announcements from hardware vendors to accompany the Microsoft announcement. Those that bring WM6.1-based products to market sooner will gain competitive advantage... Expect the changeover to Windows Mobile 6.1 to be largely complete by early 2009."

"I expect Microsoft to make announcements," confirms Ken Dulaney at Gartner Inc.
lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=149...

Verizon Wireless XV6900 is a stylish, compact
justamp.blogspot.com/2008/03/verizon-wir...

Have your say! Add your comment:

[Ken Singh]

Don't forget this: CNBC TV= scam network where BLACKBERRY word pump must be repeated 10 times at least. CNBC will never mention any negative developments , all censored. CRAMMER CROOK * FAST MONEY scam American public by pumping their own agenda. RIMM scam pump is their darling. Now to back up observations one has to look@the past from CNBC.

Remember "DAN DORFAN SCAM

Exactly , now CRAMMER CROOK=DAN DORFMAN GENIE on CNBC


HTTP://WWW.PUSHHAMBURGER.COM

A NATION UNDER SEIZE....NOW RULED BY CORPOARTE/WALLSTREET/MEDIA CROOKS.....FED(BERNANKE IN THEIR POCKET

AND WASHINGTON CLOWNS HAVE NO POWER

WAKE UP NOW...THINK ABOUT IT


DR. RON PAUL ONLY ONE TELLING HARSH REALITY

[Ken Singh]

Apr 03 06:20 PM
((RIMM=ENRON REPLAY BOOK SCAM COMPLETE))KEEP ON WRITING NICE SPIN PUMPS TO UNLOAD SCAM DUMPS..........

TD BANK/RBC CAPITAL & INSIDERS @RIMM =MANIPUALTION PUMP & DUMP SCAM GANG.................FINAL CHAPTER BEING WRITTEN NOW

GAME IS OVER FOR THIS ONE PONZI WONDER PUSH EMAIL SCAM.....

WALL STREET HOME GROWN FINANCIAL ALQUAIDA BLACKED OUT MAJOR -VE DEVELOPMENTS.....................

WHAT OF INDIA HIGH DRAMA IN PLAY AND NO ONE FROM YOU CREATIVE SPIN MASTERS EVEN MENTION IT??



iPHONE killed Blackberry in consumer Mobile landscape.

BB Plastic good for push email...will be niche player.India to get solution to intercept BB push email on April8,2009. Other nations will demand.........Still have to analyze what solution they can provided without surrendering Encryption keys??

But What ever the solution , it will kill 14% Single point of Push email epicenter and forced to put Solution for every Nation that India Gets......=economics of business model disaster are in the works.............

KISS Good bye to BB plastic 84% of business model into margin hell too....................

That is the future for this one ponzi wonder scam....Finally all forces to bust BB One ponzi wonder in Play now........

ULTRA WARNING SIGNAL TO AVOID THIS SCAM NOW: TORA TORA TORA

HERE IS INDIA LINK:

Blackberry solution expected by April 9
Bs Reporters / New Delhi April 4, 2008
Research-in-Motion (RIM), the Canada-based provider of Blackberry services, has assured Indian operators that it has come up with a solution to the contentious issue of allowing government security agencies to monitor the service without compromising data security.
business-standard.com/search/storypage_n...

Blackberry solution expected by April 9
Bs Reporters / New Delhi April 4, 2008
Research-in-Motion (RIM), the Canada-based provider of Blackberry services, has assured Indian operators that it has come up with a solution to the contentious issue of allowing government security agencies to monitor the service without compromising data security.

Communications Minister A Raja confirmed that the solution will be finalised at a meeting with the Department of Telecommunication (DoT) on April 9.

This is expected to end uncertainty for 400,000 users in India and telecom companies like Bharti Airtel, Vodafone-Essar, Reliance Communications, BPL and others that provide this small but high-revenue service.

Top RIM executives had a long meeting on the details of the solution with operators in Delhi under the aegis of the Cellular Operators Association of India today.

Blackberry has been under fire since December after the government rejected an application from Tata Teleservices to operate the service. All companies offering the service were also directed to discontinue it from December 31, 2007.

In later meetings, the government demanded the encryption level of the services be reduced, a move operators argued was untenable in the interests of security.

“Most of our users are corporations, so high encryption levels cannot be compromised for corporate mails flowing through the system,” said a senior executive.

HERE IS LINK TO iPHONE KILLED BLACKBERRY & GOOGLE REPORT RIGHT ON TOO:
iPhone used less for talk, more for Web and music, says iSuppli
digitimes.com/telecom/a20080403PR202.html
iPhone used less for talk, more for Web and music, says iSuppli


Press release, April 3; Eric Mah, DIGITIMES [Thursday 3 April 2008]

US iPhone owners are spending their time enjoying all its capabilities – voice, data communications and multimedia entertainment – rather than exclusively using it for traditional voice calls, according to a latest consumer survey by research firm iSuppli.

Owners of all types of mobile handsets use their phones for voice communications 71.7% of the time, according to research from iSuppli's ConsumerTrak survey of US residents. In contrast, iPhone owners spend just 46.5% of their time with the product engaged in voice calls.

US consumers said they spent 12.1% of their iPhone usage time accessing the Internet, a stark contrast with 2.4% for all mobile phones on average. Furthermore, iPhone owners spent 11.9% of their usage time listening to music or other audio, compared to just 2.5% for all mobile handset users.

"This usage pattern shows Apple has succeeded in producing a true convergence product that consumers like to use for multiple purposes," said Greg Sheppard, chief development officer for iSuppli. "Apple has come as close as anyone to achieving a balanced convergence in mobile-handset features and usage."

It's a phone, too

Even before Apple released the iPhone, everyone anticipated it would integrate the mobile phone's voice communications capability with the iPod's audio and video playback functionality. However, Apple has also worked to tailor and promote the iPhone as a device that makes Internet access pleasant and productive, and more like using a computer, according to iSuppli. The large multi-touch screen, ergonomic user interface and Wi-Fi connection, make accessing the Internet something people want to do more with a device like the iPhone, the research firm claimed.

Although iSuppli's research indicates smartphones from HTC are used more than the iPhone on a percentage basis for surfing the Web, the iPhone has the most volume and market impact. Google and Bank of America recently commented on how the rapid rise of traffic from iPhone owners is forcing them to modify their support of mobile Internet activities.

Feeling used

iSuppli's ConsumerTrak survey revealed iPhone users also spent more time emailing than all users on average, with owners spending 10.4% of their time on this task, as opposed to 2.8% for all mobile-phone subscribers. In spite of having only limited corporate IT support so far, the speed (via Wi-Fi) and ergonomics of the iPhone are
compelling users to access their personal email more frequently.

iPhone users are no different from anyone else when it comes to text messaging, as 15% of their time is spent on this activity, according to iSuppli.

iPhone time usage breakdown for US consumers

[Peter Lynch]

"Downside? Until corporate America decides to switch to another service, (which is hard to imagine) Research in Motion should continue to dominate with over a 55% worldwide market share."

With rationals like this, I guess the top in RIMM is not far away.....

[User 172133]

RIM sales growth is decreasing, this quarter's increase was only $210 million, 12.5% as compared to $300 ml, 22% for the Dec Q, $278ml or 25% in the Sept quarters and $950ml or 100% for the year ago Qtr.



Quarterly sales Increases have decreased, is it because of the Recession or Competition??



100% GROWTH is Long Gone, how can RIMs sales double from $6bn to 12bn, when the quarterly sales increase was only $210 ml? They would need a quarterly increase of $1.5 bn for sales to double from here. The $210ml increase is a long way off.



Total Sales for the 12 months equaled $6bn, and RIM is currently valued at $70bn, 11+ times annual sales-Priced to more than Perfection.



RIMM HIGHLY OVERVALUED_


Who would buy RIM, with sales of $6bn for $70 to 100+bn??? For earnings of $1bn? A Potential buyer could invest that $70-100bn at 6% and earn almost as much as RIM has in sales and more than RIM earned it its lifetime.


Sales-Qtr, Increases, % of Increase

QTR Ended.--SALES/ml.. INCR/Q...% INCR/Q

Mar 3, 08...$1,880........210ml.....12.5%
Dec 3, 07...$1,670........300ml....22%
Sept 3, 07..$1,370........278ml....25.%
June 3,07.....1,082.....151.5ml....16.3%
Mar 3, 07........930........ 95.3....11.4%
Dec 2, 06........835.......176.6....26.8 %
Sept 2, 06.......658....... 45.4......7.4%
Jun 3, 06.........613....... 51.8......9.2%
Mar 4, 06........561......

HUGE INCR IN MKT VALUATION, SMALL INCR IN SALES .
Sales for 12 mos ending Mar 3, 2008..........$6.0bn
Sales for 12 mos ending Dec 3, 2007.........$5.1bn



Sales Incr for the 12 Mos Ended Mar 3, 2008........$900ml



Val'n Incr'd over $12 billion in past few weeks.

[Ken Singh]

WARNING: AVOID BLACKBERRY SCAm=enron replay book scam

RIM Offers Scary Solution To India
April 7th, 2008 by Ronen Halevy
I have been trying to stay on the sidelines of this whole RIM security issue with India. Personally I originally thought it was a big hoax to get RIM to open a NOC in India to create more Indian tech jobs. RIM’s proposed solution to the problem is kind of interesting. It seems like Google and other companies that RIM has just acceeded to Indias demands so they don’t lose business in that country.

The interesting part is that they are not doing the same solution they provided to the paranoid governments of China and Singapore. In those countries RIM setup a proxy where email and data was stored for 6 months for monitoring.

RIM will provide translation or encryption codes to the government to monitor email among BlackBerry users

India can monitor e-mails, voice and SMS data sent from a BlackBerry to any other mobile phone or other email address but not between two BlackBerrys

They will propose the solution on April 9th to Indias intelligence agencies

I just thought I would pipe in for all out Indian readers to get on a BES or start using S/MIME or PGP for your confidential emails. Big Brother is watching… & RIM is helping them