Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

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So there continues, as always, to be a wide variety of views regarding economic conditions with ideas now ranging from depression, recession and even a completed recession. This is why I’m glad to be a technician. Just watch the tape and stay disciplined since all the rest is noise.

Bulls seem still in charge with the belief and hope that forward-looking conditions will improve. And, of course, the entire weight and power of the government is behind them--you’re cool with that right?

Have a pleasant day.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in SH, MYY, IWM, RWM, PSQ, IEF, UDN, GLD, USO, DBE, UNG, EFA, EEM and FXI.

Comments

[bobmugge:]

I don't put much stock in charts other than for tracking the past. I see no real value in predicting the future in growth stocks. Some in value stocks, however still, I don't think it proves much. You can go back and say oh yeah see how this chart indicated , yada yada. In reality that is it, you are looking at the past. Show me someone who had the gonads to draw a predictive chart showing me what a stock or mutual fund is going to do, based on what it has done........Then I will be more of a believer.

2008 Apr 03 05:09 AM

[Gross Bill:]

Bob, Bob, Bob...you miss the point. Who cares what you think. The market is bigger than you. It's not about doing what YOU believe, it's about doing what you think OTHER PEOPLE believe--and lots of those other people trade off of charts. By the way, you forgot this one:

"...and I never met a rich technician...ha, ha, ha."

2008 Apr 03 07:12 AM

[RKC51246:]

Is Fry ever positive????
Do techies make predictions or just weigh in on the past.
These are real questions - not sarcasm.

2008 Apr 03 09:13 AM

[30andout:]

Oh David, I love reading your commentary. A little humor and saneness in this all too serious world we find ourselves in. Just imagine the downright sanity and personal health and wellbeing that would come from having a good belly laugh at all the nonsense we collectively create on this all too small planet of ours--and--where else are we gonna go? I wish I could take out futures on your stuff.

2008 Apr 03 09:43 AM

[User 86999:]

Bob, TA works off of trends indicating entry and exit points. You don't PREDICT the market as such. It works MOST of the time, but not all the time. Did you notice the word "trap" in some charts from David? You watch out for those and liquidate your investment with minor losses/gains while you still have time. The TA works in charts that have a fair degree of stability to indicate trends. It also depends on the market volatility. In times like now, you're either hyper alert with your finger constantly hovering over the button, or you stay out until the storm settles down. Did you notice David saying he was about 75% cash in this market?

2008 Apr 03 12:55 PM