Gold And Silver Weekly Outlook For July 9-13

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Includes: GLD, SLV
by: Lior Cohen

Last week gold and silver didn't do much at the first few days of the week but after the Fourth of July vacation precious metals tumbled down. This decline was mostly likely due to the ECB rate reduction from 1% to 0.75%. This news adversely affected not only the euro but also other markets such as oil, gold and silver. The other news item was published on Friday: the U.S non-farm payroll report showed only 80k added jobs. This news also pulled down bullion along with other commodities. This upcoming week the main events that may affect bullion will revolve around U.S trade balance, the minutes of FOMC meeting, China's GDP for Q2, Euro Council Meeting, and U.S PPI.

Gold decreased during last week by 1.58%; silver, even more than gold, declined on a weekly scale by 2.51%. Furthermore, during last week the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) also fell by 0.95% and reached by July 6th 153.71.

The video report shows an outlook of gold and silver for the main publications and events that may affect precious metals between July 9th and 13th. Some of these reports and events include:

Wednesday -American Trade Balance: According to the recent American trade balance report regarding April the goods and services deficit decreased during the month to $50.1 billion.

Wednesday - Minutes of FOMC Meeting: Following the recent FOMC meeting, in which it was decided to extend Operation Twist throughout the rest of 2012, the market reacted to this news as gold and silver tumbled down. The minutes of the FOMC meeting might offer some insight behind this decision regarding the future steps of the FOMC especially in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of the month;

Thursday -China Second Quarter GDP 2012: During the first quarter of 2012, China grew by only 8.1% in annual terms; the current expectations are that the Q2 2012 grew in annul terms by only 7.5%; if the growth rate will be lower than in the previous quarter it might adversely affect commodities;

Friday - U.S. Producer Price Index: In the recent report regarding May this index for finished goods fell by 1% compared with April's rate and rose by 0.7% in the last 12 months;

In conclusion, I speculate precious metals will continue to trade down during the upcoming week. The recent rate cut by ECB may continue keeping the euro/USD from bouncing back. If the euro and other rates will continue to trade down against the USD, this trend could also adversely affect precious metals. If China's GDP growth rate in Q2 will be lower than the growth rate in Q1, this could adversely affect commodities prices. Finally, the upcoming reports regarding the U.S including core PPI, trade balance and minutes of the recent FOMC meeting could affect precious metals rates. If the FOMC won't hint in its minutes of another QE program in the near future, it could withhold gold and silver from bouncing back.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.