Hold On To RIMM

On Wednesday, RIM (NASDAQ: RIMM) reported its Q4 and fiscal year 2008 financial results. Q4 revenue was $1.88 billion, up 104% y-o-y and 13% sequentially. Net income was $412.5 million, or $0.72 a share, up 118% y-o-y. It added 2.18 million Blackberry subscribers in the quarter bringing the total to over 14 million Blackberry subscribers. For the full year 2008, revenue was $6.01 billion, up 98%. Net income was $1.29 billion, or $2.26 per share diluted, up 105%.

Earlier coverage is available here and here, where I discussed RIM’s iPhone threat, and its growing stature as a laptop replacement device.

RIM continued its stupendous growth ballooned by the iPhone launch last year. It was the third consecutive quarter with revenue growth of more than 100%. But will the equation change with Apple (APPL) eying the enterprise market? In my post last year following the iPhone launch, I had said that RIM and Apple are not direct competitors because Apple’s focus has been consumer, while RIM’s is prosumer.

Just within a year, iPhone has announced the iPhone Enterprise Beta Program for companies to test the iPhone 2.0 software before its release. The new iPhone will have ActiveSync support for Microsoft Exchange Server 2003 or 2007 and push email. It also supports Cisco IPSec VPN for security. It remains to be seen how Apple’s enterprise penetration attempts pay off. Traditionally, enterprise has been Steve Jobs’ weak area. He doesn’t have the same level of instinct for the enterprise as he does for the pureplay consumer markets. There is also news of a new 3G version of the iPhone around the summer, but it is not clear if it will have enterprise features.

According to the research firm, Canalysis, Apple already has 28% of the U.S. smart phone market, having overtaken PALM (PALM) with 9%, but is still behind RIM with 41%.

RIM on its part is eying the consumer market with attractive models like the Pearl and Curve. About 38% of its BlackBerry subscriber base was non-enterprise at the end of the year 2007. And in Q4, more than 50% of its new subscriber account additions were from non-enterprise customers.

As for its outlook, RIM expects Q1 2009 sales between $2.2 and $2.3 billion and diluted EPS between $0.82 and $0.86. It is targeting net new adds of 2.2 million, which it believes would be driven by the launch of CDMA Curve with Verizon (VZ) and Sprint (S). The stock is currently trading around $116, and has a market cap of around $65 billion. Apple is trading around $147, and has a market cap of around $129 billion.

In my opinion, both RIM and Apple will be going gangbusters in the smartphone market for a while yet. And that while is a real w-h-i-l-e. We are in the era of the convergence device, and for the next decade, worldwide, the movement will continue with great momentum. RIM will continue to be one of the top beneficiaries of his trend, and hence, it is a stock that I plan to hold onto for a w-h-i-l-e.

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Comments

[JIM]

AAPL will be on top eventually. RIMM's P/E is preposterous in this environment.

[Tom B]

Jim is right. Here's your choice: 1) don't invest in RIMM or AAPL 2) Invest in RIMM 3) Invest in APPL 4) Invest in both. I would argue that 3) invest in AAPL is FAR less risky than the other choices.

[JIM]

If Apple had only beat by .02, you can rest assured the stock would have been totally obliterated the next day. Just look at what happened with some misplaced concern over a slight change in growth rate for iPods, while beating by a country mile.

Consider what you're getting for the premium you pay for RIMM. A decreasing rate of growth?

Given that UBS can go up 11% after writing down 19 billion additional, and that Merril says it's fat with cash, and that people believe them, anything is possible today. We obviously want to admire the emperor's new clothes.

But 'possible' doesn't make it correct.

Was long RIMM, but it's just not worth the worry that their world is going to shrink.

[Brewer]

IMHO, RIMM is headed for the chute when iPhone II and SDK come in May or June. Look at how much of a bald-faced copy their 900 design is. Make you think of an iPhone much? Why would they do that, it just gives Apple clout? They should have stuck with their 80's style PDA approach, a lot of people still believe in that. iPhone is set to become an international sensation, and for business, the exchange setup is far better under iPhone II than for RIM (and cheaper to implement). Finally the IT guys (pushing MS based products as usual) can't say no to it, there is nothing required, the iPhone SDK will automatically configure direct push to exchange server. No need to set up a RIM server behind your firewall.

The web experience is unparalled on an iPhone/iPod touch. Also, iPod touch could easily have a camera and video conference software added in the next iteration. That would sell in huge numbers and work as a cell phone for a lot of people who are not away from WIFI much.

[frs]

You all are talking like AAPL's a cell phone company. iPhones are such a small fraction of AAPL's business, it's nonsense to compare the business models next to each other for these two fine companies. AAPL is a computer company - their growth and future lies with taking market share in the world of PCs. That component of their business dwarfs the phone and music businesses - by far. AAPL gets most of their 'hype' from iPhone, but they get their revenue from PCs.

[Ken Singh]

GOLDMAN SACH RESEARCH REPORT IS BEARISH WITH A BULLISH TWIST

12 MONTH TARGET $130 ...LOL

UPSIDE +$7 AND DOWNSIDE??

$68 LOL........

JUST KILLING APRIL OPTIONS....THESE CROOKS WILL ASK SOME OTHER ALQUAIDA MEMBERS TO SPIN -VE IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE.........

WILL IT BE INDIA IN APRIL 9TH? EVENT??

OE WHO KNOWS??

NEXT WEEK WE START TECHLAND EARNINGS AND WARNINGS......

[Ken Singh]

NOTE FROM SA EDITORS: Ken, this comment has been removed because it contained abusive language and was written in block capitals. Please maintain the quality of our community.

[Ken Singh]

Despite the current economic climate, RIM estimates a growth in revenues for the next quarter, predicting to reach £1.13bn and £1.15bn. The company seems to have escaped the first effects, as sales continue to rise, but this is unlikely to continue in the long run.

Nomura analyst Richard Windsor commented: ‘The economy is already impacting the demand for handsets. The global credit crunch is causing many companies and even consumers to think more carefully about expenditure. Consequently forecasts for global economic growth are slowing markedly, which has hit demand for high end handsets.’

Although this hasn’t impacted RIM yet, the company is unlikely to escape untouched. ‘We see no reason why replacement demand for RIM’s product should not be affected,’ Windsor said

[J Lazerow]

who is this ken singh guy? does he think this is the yahoo message board? RIM's growth is spectacular. All of these Apple fans fail to recognize that end users love choice and that the entire smartphone is market is growing so rapidly, that both platforms should just kill it in the coming years. Valuation wise, what is the correct multiple for 100% earnings growth 2008 over 2007 and at least 50% earnings growth (although I think $4 or 75% growth is the right earnings number for RIM in 2009)? 30x forward seems fair to me. I'll just stick to owning both RIMM and AAPL.

[J Lazerow]

From Ken Singh:

HUGE INCR IN MKT VALUATION, SMALL INCR IN SALES .
Sales for 12 mos ending Mar 3, 2008..........$6.0bn
Sales for 12 mos ending Dec 3, 2007.........$5.1bn

Um, I think your numbers are wrong, RIM sales doubled in 2008 from 2007 from $3B to $6B. Please get some facts correct if you are going to make these wild accusations.

[Ken Singh]

April 7, 2008 at 10:59 am · Filed under Hardware

New Delhi, April 6: Research in Motion (RIM) — the makers of BlackBerry — may provide translation or encryption codes to the government to monitor e-mails among BlackBerry users.

Indian intelligence agencies can monitor e-mails, voice and SMS data sent from a BlackBerry to any other mobile phone or to an Internet mailing address but cannot decipher e-mails between two BlackBerrys. A translation code is required to read the messages.

Canada-based RIM will meet the officials of the home ministry, the department of telecommunications (DoT) and intelligence agencies on April 9 to provide a solution that will allow security agencies to supervise the service without compromising data security.

[Ken Singh]

Monday, April 7, 2008
India Wants to Eavesdrop on BlackBerrys
BlackBerry users, beware of the snoops. India's Telecommunications Dept. told telecom carriers, Internet service providers, and officials at Research In Motion (RIM), the Canadian company that makes BlackBerrys, that it wants to eavesdrop on transmissions from every BlackBerry phone in the country. To comply, RIM might have to route calls and e-mails through government computer servers based in India. (more)
FutureWatch... Look for other countries to jump on this bandwagon.

[Ken Singh]

Some sanity from Needham: on this manipulated bubble scam

April 9, 2008 9:54 AM EDT

Needham initiates coverage on Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) with a Hold rating.

The firm believes the Research In Motion's BlackBerry growth is unsustainable as Needham expects "far more versatile applications" to enter the market. Needham specifically names new applications on Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone during the second half of this year.

Shares of Research In Motion have climbed 23% in the last month on Q4 earnings that came in above Street estimates. As investors have recently been speculating about the high-profile release of a 3G iPhone, many pundits have been suggesting taking profits in Research of Motion as this Apple product will likely be RIMM's toughest competitor.

Research In Motion Limited engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of wireless solutions for the mobile communications market worldwide. [BCS]


hold=STRONG SELL

If we know all Analyst crooks twist scam ratings

[Ken Singh]

India’s intelligence community is putting its foot down and telling the government not to back down and let BlackBerry services continue out of the ambit of surveillance by security agencies.

In a report to the home ministry, security agencies have cautioned that anti-national elements could use Blackberry services to escape any possibility of detection. “Some cases have already come to notice where hawala operators are opting for BlackBerry services,” said a security official.

The report drafted by security agencies comes in the backdrop of attempts between cellular operators and BlackBerry maker Research In Motion (RIM) with the department of telecommunications to find a workable solution through this week to address security concerns.

Security agencies intercept thousands of phone calls every year to keep a tab on criminals and terrorists. “If Blackberry services remain out of this loop, it would be natural to expect people like them to switch over to escape any chance of surveillance… In due course, we might as well stop all interceptions and let everyone have a free run,” an official said.

But that, he said, was a decision for the government to take. “It is our job to bring to the notice of the government anything which threatens national security… The government can take a view that this gaping hole in the security grid should continue… We cannot,” the official said.

[Ken Singh]

"Blackberry handy for terrorists"
Agencies
Posted online: Monday , April 07, 2008 at 1342 hrs IST

New Delhi, April 7: Amid a raging controversy over security issues concerning Blackberry services, security agencies have warned that the technology could come handy for anti-national elements if there is no effective content monitoring mechanism.

www.financialexpress.com/news/Blackberry... /

While the Telecom Ministry and cellular operators are trying to hammer out differences over the issue, the security agencies have submitted a report to the Union Home Ministry about the abuse of the new technology by some terrorist modules and hawala operators.

The sources said government has already asked telecom Companies to make possible monitoring of content transmitted through Blackberry or stop the service as it was causing a major security breach.

During their introduction in the Indian telecom market, the company had been asked to keep in place a mechanism which would enable security agencies for a lawful interception of the data being transmitted through the instrument.

However, Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) was the first to bring out difficulties being faced in monitoring data out of Blackberry as they were unable to decipher the content because of packaging of the data in encrypted form which could not be deciphered.

The encrypted data packets were sent through with the technology that were password protected with the help of "Public Key" (customer code) and "Private Key" (company code) that the packets could not be downloaded as they were password protected
www.financialexpress.com/news/Blackberry... /

[Ken Singh]

RIMM MANAGEMENT CAN BE NAILED FOR DECEIVING SHAREHOLDERS: INDIA DEMANDS & IMPLICATIONS
Latest from India news release views:

RIMM Management have claimed so many times in front of DoT in India for 5 months. It was March 31st dead line , they still did not convince DoT with their solutions?

Now Management from Canada has been summoned and still they are spinning news release to give demo : how to intercept push email from Blackberry to Intelligence Agencies.

RIMM Management have not explained shareholders ...this is serious issue..Any solution for India is going to have Global Implications....

Cost of doing Business will go high..Margins are very thin from Push email but it is 84% Device where the beef is for this model.....What will happen to BB plastic, when push email users know, all their emails can be stored by other Nations for 6 months and decrypted to read the content?

Folks It is Global Economic Competition aka Economic Trade War and exposing your Communication to other Nations is destructive.

WOW NOW: RIMM Management still claims security/encryption to Market push email??
USA ..NSA already snoops..that is only why RIMM could get OK in USA for push email. French were right and now other Nations follow suit.................................

Fate of Blackberry services still uncertain
10 Apr, 2008, 2048 hrs IST, PTI

NEW DELHI: The fate of Blackberry services in the country hangs in balance with neither Department of Telecommunication nor the service provider being able to hammer out a solution to concerns raised by central security agencies.

Representatives of Research In Motion (RIM), licensor of Blackberry services, and operators had a meeting with officials of DoT here today to sort out the security issues pertaining to these services.

However, neither side was willing to share any details as to what transpired during the meeting. Sources privy to the deliberations claimed that no solution could be hammered out by either side.

Messages sent through the Blackberry service could not be intercepted as they are password protected. Also, RIM does has not have servers in India and that makes it difficult for the security agencies to keep a tab on the transmitted content

[Ken Singh]

www.rimarkable.com/oh-no-india-may-still...
Oh No! India May Still Ban The BlackBerry
We aren’t going to run through the complete play by play, however, to make a long story short, Research in Motion still hasn’t adequately addressed India’s department of telecommunications (DoT) concerns about security on the BlackBerry and thus faces a potential ban in the world’s second largest country.

The DoT wants a monitoring solution that will allow them to read the encrypted messages sent between BlackBerry devices. RIM’s solution addressed BlackBerry to Internet communication, however, BlackBerry to BlackBerry messages are still encrypted. RIM had been given a 15 day deadline to come up with a solution, however, RIM and the DoT failed to come a consensus. Both parties decided to reconvene again on April 21st.

[Ken Singh]

ALL HOLDERS OF "RIMM" STOCK U R WARNED

INDIA officially ordered Mobile Operators in India last night to shut Blackberry to blackberry Communication services and Management has failed to file 8k and warn Investors on major negative event , which can bust Blackberry Service Business Model World Wide.

Government asks operators to restrict 'certain' BlackBerry services

Wednesday, 16 April , 2008, 18:56

New Delhi: The Home Ministry has asked telecom operators not to offer “certain” BlackBerry services until a proper monitoring system is put in place, said Minister of State for Home Affairs Sriprakash Jaiswal.


“The government has issued instructions to all mobile service providers, inter alia asking them not to connect or provide/run certain BlackBerry services unless the required monitoring systems are in place,” Jaiswal said, even as he highlighted that it has not imposed restrictions on the use of BlackBerry. The Minister was answering a query in the Lok Sabha.

For more news, analysis click here>> | For more Science and Medicine news click here >>

By “certain" services the government meant that the four service providers currently offering BlackBerry services in India - Airtel, Vodafone, BPL and Reliance Communications - should temporarily stop the services between one BlackBerry to another. This is because calls and e-mails exchanged within BlackBerry handsets cannot be intercepted as the servers are based in Canada.

India has asked Research in Motion (RIM), the licensor of BlackBerry, which has over 12 million users globally, to route all its calls and e-mails through servers based in India to allow security agencies to read them as it fears its usage by terrorist outfits.

RIM officials are believed to have sought time till the end of the month to explain their position and address the issues voiced by the government.

India has also warned of “strict action” if RIM fails to come out with a viable solution to such a serious issue, telecom ministry sources said.

BlackBerry services were introduced in India in October 2004. The services came under the government's scanner last year when an application by Tata Teleservices to launch a similar service was rejected over security concerns.
sify.com/news/fullstory.php?id=14650909

[Ken Singh]

To: All pumpers on this One Ponzi Wonder Push Email Scam Business Model.....Single point of Failure and hosting?

India Demands solution but "RIMM" Management dragged India Authorities for 6 months but no solution. India April 16th ordered Mobile Carriers to shut Blackberry to Blackberry communication ASAP.

Now all creative writers should respond, what implication actions by India have on the underlying Business Model??

Imagine all Nations demand the same soon too.

BEWARE HOLDERS: Management is absolutely blocking all negative news and no warning to shareholders from negative developments

Reminder: Mobile Carriers control the fate of One ponzi wonder service

[Ken Singh]

CHINA SCAM: NO BB SALE IN CHINA, new date MAY 17,2008
SCAM CONTINUES
China Mobile BlackBerrys inch closer. China Mobile (CHL) will release or announce the official release date of Research In Motion's (RIMM) Alcatel-BlackBerry handsets around May 17. An original December 2007 release was delayed due to connectivity issues.

seekingalpha.com/article/72518-under-the...

[Ken Singh]

I am on the record folks: you all soon find out that is one ponzi wonder push email scam business model goes bust.

The India actions now being picked up by many news publications but "RIMM" Management keeps investor sin the dark.

Also SEC WATCH DOGS should shut down or be sued for not protecting our Pension Blood Sweat savings from these Wall Street shills pumping scams to extreme.............

here is the Link for India Ban of BES/BIS in INDIA

news.google.com/news?client=safari&r...

[Ken Singh]

INDIA CYBER LAW: Any communication service must be hosted Domestic only (inside India only) , if not shut out is the action by the Cyber law in INDIA

What is "RIMM" service and Business Model?

In Violation of Indian Cyber law...The Mobile operators warned to shut the service and provide solution to Department of Telecom now.

What will China and other Nations demand next?

Which enterpise will like to use Push email from RIMM once they know that "RIMM" Management has secretly given access to all email records and stored for them for 6 months? Do any Enterprise in any country want other Nations to have access to read their emails?

USE YOUR BRAIN, IF YOU HAVE ONE TO DECIDE

((RIMM Buisness Model is Bust))

AMEN

[Ken Singh]

MORE FACTS ON "RIMM" MANAGEMENT & ANALYST CROOKS

INDIA: subscriber numbers ; Analyst crooks claim 500K??

Here is today from GSM:

BALSILLIE/LIZARD CROOKS: WHAT SUB NUMBERS IN INDIA? READ THIS 1 minute ago
Sources within the GSM camp said that with only 2 lakh Blackberry users, there is no crisis even if the service was banned. They also pointed out that there were many other handset devices available today which provides similar type of services though the security levels may not match up to that of a Blackberry.

this is 200k?

now

60% less by GSM Camp???

now how many multinational roaming in the mix???

All FRAUD from "RIMM" MANAGEMENT & analyst crooks

CHINA: no BB sales yet?

But MANAGEMENT Claims? Caught on CC = Crime in Motion=RIMM


CHINA >>>ZIPPO BB

[Ken Singh]

RIMM MANAGEMENT PROVEN CROOKS STILL KEEP INVESTORS IN THE DARK

India puts a ban on certain Blackberry services
Blackberry, Mobile Service Providers, Research in Motion April 20th, 2008

India puts a ban on certain Blackberry services

The Indian government has now directed the telecom companies in the market to block certain services provided to the users of Blackberry devices.

This ban would remain in place till the service providers put up the requisite monitoring systems in place.

The government had earlier raised its objection to the RIM Blackberry services as they said that some of the services could not be monitored and hence were a security concern.

Indian government representative Jyotiraditya Scindia said in a statement: “Instructions have been issued to all mobile service providers, inter alia, asking them not to connect or provide/run certain BlackBerry services unless the required monitoring systems are in place.”

Cellular Operators Association of India Director General T.V. Ramachandran responded on this directive: “We will abide by whatever the government requires. We have no issue.”
sifybroadband.techwhack.com/986-blackber...

[Ken Singh]

Batting for Apple

On the flip side, the analysts point to Apple's ActiveSync approach to push email as one of the ways IT manages could help cut costs through the architecture's reduced reliance on storage, server and network resources. While it may not yet offer the robustness of RIM's three-tier approach -- Exchange Server, BES and the NOC -- ActiveSync is much cheaper and simpler from a management standpoint.

"The key issue with an external NOC is why does every enterprise e-mail sent and received have to pass through a third-party (in this case in Canada)?," noted Sanderson and Wu. "This raises security risks as the e-mail is sent outside a company's firewall to an additional party besides the public network." With Apple's ActiveSync approach, emails will be authenticated within a company's firewall, then transfered directly over a public network to iPhones, bypassing the need for an NOC.

[Ken Singh]

No to Blackberry; Govt tells Tatas

Press Trust of India / New Delhi April 23, 2008



The government has asked Tata Teleservices not to offer Blackberry services unless the required monitoring system being insisted for by security agencies are put in place.



“Keeping in view of the security implication involved, the licensee (company) is directed not to connect or provide or run the Blackberry e-mail and mobile messenger services unless the required monitoring system to the satisfaction of the security agencies are in place and the master key and algorithm are deposited with the licensor," DoT said in a letter to Tatas.


Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) limited had sought permission for launching Blackberry services, saying other leading operators have been offering services without meeting the above mentioned security clauses.


"...Non-compliance of instructions by any other operator in breach of terms and conditions of the licence cannot be a valid ground for according permission to offer Blackberry services," DoT said.


DoT and the Ministry of Home Affairs have been battling with the Blackberry licensor Research-in-Motion (RIM) also mobile service providers like Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Reliance Communications to put in place a system to intercept data sent using Blackberry technology.


www.business-standard.com/common/storypa...

www.ndtvprofit.com/2008/04/23184210/Blac...

[User 18120]

NOW CANADA GOVT. SCREAMS FOR THESE CROOKS

INDIA HAS SHOWN THE WORLD , THIS IS SPY SCAM ONE PONZI WONDER AND NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT TO ALL NATIONS


Canada questions India's approach on Blackberry imbroglio
27 Apr, 2008, 1404 hrs IST, PTI

NEW DELHI: Amid a raging controversy about threat to national security from Blackberry services, Canada has questioned the DoT's approach to resolving the issue and also expressed doubt whether those involved on the Indian side are actually empowered to settle the matter.

In a letter to Communication and IT Minister A Raja, Canadian High Commissioner David M Malone said: "We and RIM (Canada-based Blackberry vendor Research-in-Motion) need to understand who in the government of India is empowered to resolve this issue. This is necessary in order to ensure the right representative from RIM at the table.

"The discussion managed by DoT to date have inspired little confidence that those involved on the Indian side are actually empowered to settle the matter as Indian government's demands of RIM keep expanding while media leaks proliferate, some of them very damaging from a security perspective...

"Potential terrorists are now aware, because of these leaks, of technical issues unknown to most of us previously," he said in the latter dated April 17.

Raja had last week said that the issue would be resolved within a week but going by the communication of Canadian High Commissioner, it looks that both parties -- DoT and RIM -- are yet to even agree upon who from India would be negotiating.

Blackberry services came under a cloud ever since security agencies expressed fears that terror groups could use the service, including e-mail feature, to communicate without being monitored by Indian agencies as the data is routed through servers abroad.

According to sources, the Indian security agencies have been insisting for placing the Blackberry server in India so that the contents sent to and from Blackberry handset could be monitored, if required.

From the trade perspective, the focus on RIM by DoT would appear to be discriminatory given the myriad of other technologies available and offering similar security features, Malone said
economictimes.indiatimes.com/Canada_ques...