4 Reasons Sirius Stock Will Stay Down - CS

Credit Suisse analyst Bryan Kraft downgraded Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) to Neutral and established a new price target of $3.00 for the equity. The downgrade centers mostly on uncertainty surrounding various aspects of the business.

While those that are long never like to see the term downgrade used, it does represent a reality in what has transpired in SDARS of late. If nothing else, this report should temper some of the speculative enthusiasm that has surrounded the sector on any bit of merger news.

The analysis given in this report is good in that it steps away from assumptions. At this point, many people are making many assumptions. This report boils everything down into what is more real, and more measurable.

Credit Suisse sees more upside than downside.

REPORT EXCERPTS:

Sirius Satellite Radio - DOWNGRADE RATING

■ We estimate, based on our DCF model, that Sirius’ intrinsic value is $3/share pro forma for the merger, implying that the stock is trading roughly at fair value. Our bull case yields a valuation of $3.84 and our bear case yields $2.3, implying a slightly favorable risk/reward long term.

■ We think that in 2009 and 2010, the realization of operating expense synergies and ARPU growth from an increasingly favorable programming tier mix will shift investors’ probability distributions upward, thus providing a positive catalyst for the stock.

■ However, in 2008, the stock price will probably trade in a range from the mid-$2s to $3 because:

(1) Synergies will not be immediately realized and will be offset by integration costs,

(2) The positive ARPU trend is unlikely to materialize this year so soon after the merger closes, and it will be offset slightly by ARPU compression from unactivated cars as Ford (F) ramps up production,

(3) Churn will increase due to continued growth in OEM (although this is not unexpected), and

(4) Weak sales for the auto industry limit gross add potential for this year. In addition, current market conditions are unlikely to favor high multiple, long duration equities like Sirius that trade at high multiples of even ‘10 cash flow.

■ We are lowering our rating to Neutral and our target price to $3.00, from $3.75, due to lower estimates for 2008 and 2009 (lower OEM forecast due to weak auto sales, higher churn, greater music royalty expense). Our pro forma Sirius-XM (XMSR) EBITDA estimate is -$273M for 2008, $35M for 2009, and $324M for 2010. We are lowering our target price on XMSR to $13.80, which is equivalent to the exchange ratio of 4.6x multiplied by our $3.00 target price on SIRI.

Sirius Buzz members can see additional excerpts from this report on the Sirius Buzz Forums.

Tyler Savery Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

Comments

[User 109000]

Let me get this straight!!!!!! This idiot is making a down grade as if the merger between XM and SIRI will not be approved? Guess we still have non beleivers out there huh....What's even worst is that we have idiots selling because of the down grade....What a bunch of morons....Lol.....

[User 168418]

What down grades the Sirius stock?................... comments you guys post all the time, giving it more of a bad spin then it's worth.

[Comment edited for offensive language]

[User 168418]

I am still bullish on this stock and think we can see $5.00 on a FCC approval.

[Kevin O]

That would be a first... my impression is that someone wants to see this stock stay at the range its at... for the sake of making a bundle when the merger does go through??

[KMcA6107]

I agree with User 168418. I have a 60 day sell order in for a price target of 5.10. I think, whenever the FCC gets off their rumps and follows the DOJ with this, we'll se a major bloom in price; much like when the DOJ came out with their approval. Hey, when you're in a speculative small-cap....it's all about speculation. Downgrades are bound to happen, as well as upgrades. Besides, Reuters still has it at Outperform...so...Goes to show not even the "experts" are in consensus here.

[163888]

What he is saying is that when the merger gos through, that for at least the near term, one or two years there will not be big savings. This for most is not really news, nobody said the savings would come overnite. What I think is the big question is do you want to buy now at 2.80 or wait a year buy at 3.50-4.00 or wait 2 years and buy at 10.

[cos1000]

Moving the "Bulls Eye" on a target price for Sirius from $3.75 to $3.00 makes no sense at all at this time. He is connecting automotive sales falling as an equal percentage to new subscribers decreasing for satellite radio. Both XM and Sirius are increasing their penetration of factory installed connects with Auto manufacturer partners this year. The question is where does that offset lie. Decreased auto sales with increased auto market penetration as factory installs increase.

As far as the retail market goes, consumers are waiting for the new radios that will provide the best of both before they buy. I don't see anything in this analysis that takes into account the dramatic increase in retail sales when consumers can have the best in sports, music and talk at their fingertips on an alacarte basis. Come to think of it I don't see this discussed by many "Analysts" of the SDARS business.

The one good point about this downgrade is that it does point out the existing Arbitrage spread that currently exists in the XM stock price. Maybe a savey invester might want to buy a little XM right now and take advantage of the immediate post merge profit that exists in the stock price.

[Nick d'John]

SIRI/XMSR: $4.75/$21.85, fair value at the onset of merge
approval based upon mathematical fact. The long arm of NAB
has apparently extended into Switzerland and perhaps into the
alpha-seeking society:) Savery might do well for himself if he
would rely more on his own honest opinion rather than providing
"rationalization&... of opinions put forth by suspect analysts... I'm
still trying to figure out how the Suisse managed to stay neutral
in WWII:)

[Sims]

This is the reason that most average people stay away from stocks.
This shows that one analysis, who may or may not have his or her own interest in mind, can make or break an investment that should be sound. I will hold on to what I have in stocks, but I am out of the Stock market game. It is primary for the influencial fat cats.

[User 168418]

I GOT 17,500 SHARES IN SIRIUS..... AM HERE TO STAY. THERE IS MOENY TO BE MADE SHORTING THE STOCK THATS WHAT SEEMS TO BE HAPPENDING. WHEN THE ECOMONY PICKS UP........MOST LIKELY BY THE END OF THIS YEAR, THOSE WHO SOLD CHEAP WILL HAVE MISS THE BOAT. THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO BUY MORE AT THESE PRICES........

[User 163772]

I think it is sad that we are subjected to incompetent leadership at FCC. Just make a decision, yes or no. It is not as difficult as they would have you believe. It is almost as sad that we are subjected to incompetent analysts who most likely have their own interests in mind and are unbridled by SEC as they should be.

[User 163772]

Oh, by the way, Sirius may stay down for five reasons, not four. The fifth reason being the incompetent, unbridled analysts who continually spend their time attempting to manipulate this stock. In the past year, I believe their have been more attempts to manipulate this stock than any other stock in any market. SEC should be doing a better job as should the FCC.

[163888]

You guys are unbelievable, any time a analyst comes out with a downgrade you insult the analyst. What you people should be doing is looking at both sides, not just the one you want to here. With the exception of Jonathon Jacaby, who really did suck as an analyst.

[User 163772]

163888, your line of work is obvious.

[163888]

163772, just keep your one sided view, your type are the ones that bought ORCL, SEBL, CSCO, and BEAS and then road them from the 100 to 200 range to 10 to 20 range. Then wondered where were the signs, what happen? Motley Fool had an article several months ago about just that, the signs were there if you were not so blinded by your one sided view. You have to look at both sides, why are people selling when you are buying.

[numb_chuck]

yes, it's very peculiar that the stock continues to go lower even on an up day like today in the market. most other stocks have gains but Sirius loses roughly 5 points... i think the plan is to drive the stock lower with negative news and downgrades before the FCC approval so certain entities can rake in profits upon final merger approval.

[verggreatness]

There's a reason it's named Motley "Fools." You have to be a fool to follow them.....

[verggreatness]

Just forget you have Sirius stock and then check it in a year......You will see you money invested probably triple......Don't watch this stock every day or it will drive you "mad."

[pain]

This is painful. I am so tired. These guys really don't give a shit about this whole deal. How could they not give a shit so much. No pity for the companies what so ever. It's like going to fight and you came with a knife. Mean while your enemies have machine guns and there asking you to give up the knife. They have us locked up and they ain't giving us any food. At the end of the day we are Americans and SATRAD is and American company. They are hurting American businesses. The FCC don't have a leg to stand on and yet they still haven't made a decision. And it is too late, were already mad! Not just about the money either. Shareholders feel the same way as the DOJ and subscribers feel. If it was truly a bad thing I would not feel as strongly as I do. But we have witnessed careless politicians in charge of making a important decision that is critical to many. So yes sir we are mad! This country can't do the right thing even if it was as easy as approving a simple merger!

[163888]

I knew sombody would say that about Motley "FOOL". I am not saying that should be the only thing anybody reads, ( I have not forgotten they were recommending XMSR about 2 years ago ) but it does bring in another prospective. I also agree with the wait a year or two and you will find it to be a good investment, that is also what Credit Suisse is saying. If some people would pull their heads out of the ground they would see that also. I have been in Both sence 2002 so if I have to wait another 2 years so what. The problem with so many SIRI investors, is they are and were short term who got in a year ago or less hoping to strike it rich over nite and are pissed when they see they may have to wait a few years.

[pain]

We got screwed by our own Government! They are for The NAB and monopolies. Thats why SIRI XM can't get this approved. The government is for protecting existing monopolies> thats what i am taking from all this. Please note that everyone against the merger is neither shareholder or subscriber.

[cos1000]

163888, Please don't tell me that you think Motley Fool's article written six months ago about an event that took place 6 years ago is relevant here. Wondering where the signs were, after the fact, is not what's going to help investors in these stocks. Patience, and if you have any money to invest, dollar cost averaging will, if you believe in their viability. I have invested in these stocks since 2002 also, about 15,000 shares, give or take a few hundred on any given day, and it has been painful.

These were, and still are speculative stocks, representing an innovative, nascent technology, with a business model we hoped would be profitable. As a subscriber I believe it provides a wonderful alternative to everything else out their in your car, boat, truck or plane. As an Investor, the business model is not cutting it without the merger. That's why the companies themselves agreed to merge. I guess you could say that is a sign.

As we wait impatiently for the FCC, and find ourselves already heavily invested, it hards to listen to both sides of an argument
that 's taking place on Monday morning.... after the game has been played. All that's left now is the FCC Decision. So write you letters and hope for the best.

[User 163772]

163888, now that I have time, I wanted to let you know that a very high percentage of the readers here are not dummies and have little respect for the analysts because of their use of the "what if a frog had wings" theory in their attempts to manipulate a stock price. Further, I believe that a very high percentage of stock market investors understand the risks associated with investing in stocks especially in a high risk stock such as Sirius. Those same investors are not sitting back a waiting to be insulted by people such as the analyst from Credit Suisse.

[Roxieanne]

Tyler

From your perspective, whatever that is, this talking head's opinion may be accurate; as an investor I view it as more of the same garbage that comes out of Wall Street Analysts to manipulate stocks.

Thanks to all of those who obstructed this merger in 2006 we now have to deal with downgrades because of the financial losses in the firms who make their living on pumping and dumping stocks.

This is called downgrading so firms who have shorted can cover their shorts. What is Credit Suisse's interest and or position in SIRI or XM----do they have one?

Goldman Sacks (Sacs) has already downgraded to $2.25 badmouthing the merger about 6 weeks ago.

There's nothing wrong with the merger its sound. The Market predicts-------if these talking heads believe this now-----they should have downgraded a year ago.

[163888]

cos 1000, I used that to prove a point about all of the people here that blindly put an analyst down because his opinion, does not go along with their kind of cool aid. Those were examples of analyst that said the same thing about those stocks and were put down on post like this. Those people were then wondering and blaming other analyst that went along with their view for not being more preceptive. As for the most of the rest of your comment I dont get what you are trying to say (if that is directed towards me) because if you read what I have said before, I agree with it.

163772, when did he insult anybody? what he did, is say what I believe is the truth and have said before many times to people out there that thought this stock was going to 6,7,8,9, and 10 right after the merger, if you are one of those then you are not that intelligent when it comes to investing in SIRI. But what does he get, a bunch of people insulting him. Also if any of you have read Tyler Savery before or have gone to his site you would know he knows SIRI, and has no real vested interest and he has basically agreed with this analyst. Check out his radio bolg cast.

Sunset John, you are a perfect example of what I am talking about. A little insight would be nice. A person making a statement like that should look in the mirror when he makes it.

[163888]

Roxieanne, Tyler said it was a good analysis. The analyst is not saying that the stock is a bad investment for the long term. What he is saying is dont expect a big jumb more then 3.80 a share right after the merger. Tyler has said the same thing in his last radio blog cast.

[verggreatness]

Investors just keep in mind this stock will probably pop a little when FCC approves but also expect it to sink back to reality just like when DOJ approved. Synergies from this merger is well expected to save on both sides in the long run but keep in mind this is the time to buy. This is a cheap stock and if you can hold on to it for a few years a smile will come.

[Yuriko777]

Sirius and XM appear doomed regardless of any merger approval. I've given up on buying them and moved my money into CVRD, ticker symbol RIO. It was a smart choice.

[User 163772]

Today, 4/8/08, TheStreet.com says you should be an aggressive buyer of Sirius stock and that the market is not understanding the upside potential of a combined XMSR-SIRI.

[User 163772]

Incidently, good luck Yuriko and so long.

[kalashnikov]

Its not what you think but what happens that counts. This stock may go up to $50 someday, it may go bankcrupt. Time is of the essence, everyone's oppinions are self fulfilling prophecies, ultimately who gets it right will be the one partying it up others just merely bitching. Some will think there are geniusis and other fools. I just dont understand why everyone tells others what they think is going to happen, is it that they want others to believe in them or are too scared to be alone on a lonely journey without even that emotional companionship. I will tell you one thing I believe Warren Buffet would never buy this stock atleast as of now, but then I also believe there is going to be a much greater investor than Warren in the near future and I dont know what he would do.

[cos1000]

163888, I find myself putting you in the same category of all the analysts that I don't value. You support your use of an irrelevant and untimely Motley Fool article that defends analysts who were on the right side of things, but only after the event had happened. This event is happening now. Then you tell me your not sure what I was getting at with the rest of my comments but if I had read all your earlier comments that you posted that I would know that you agree with what I said. So I'm to understand that you don't know what I meant but that you agree...

Thanks for clearing things up for me. Your so busy telling everyone else what they don't understand about everyone else's analysis, that you lost track of the issue.

Is the above Credit Suisse analyst article relevant or is it a manipulation of the stock price. Is he just telling us what we already know... or is he trying to be stock price predictive in a helpful way. You have to admit his timing is uncanny.

Also, I don't understand how Tyler can say that this analysis is helping keep speculation "Real", by making expectations more measurable. I'm sure Bryan Kraft stayed up all night crunching the numbers presented here. Even after DOJ approval speculation on these stocks was very subdued. A blip up and then a continued downward spiral of stock price supported by negative analysis.

[Tyler Savery]

Wow. The comments are hitting from all sides. As an investor I am long on both Sirius and XM. What I like about the Credit Suisse report is that it boils out the assumptions that many have when they are assigning a higher target price. The longer this merger goes on, the more battle fatigued the street is.

People who are in these equities have been sitting in a trading range for quite some time. The selling pressure on Sirius through the $3's and $4's will be strong. Some people (and perhaps many) simply just want to move on.

The shift in street perception was to the merger. Once complete, the swhift will be in how fast these companies can make money.

Credit Suisse put the stock at "neutral" with a $3.00 price target. The analyst also stated that the upside upside potential sits at $3.81 and the downside at $2.31. Given that range, the neutral rating is appropriate. Investors need to decide whether or not they feel that CC approval will deliver the pop that they expect.

For the record, there are aspects of the report that I do not agree with. CS has the synergies at the low end of the range, and I think they should be higher. That being said, I like the fact that this report offers a "calming effect" that brings expectations to a more conservative thought process. I think having a more conservative thought process is prudent at this point. Going forward these companies will be measured more as media companies than tech companies.

Simply my opinion.

[163888]

Cos 1000, My point being, it was confusing to me why you would be confrontational with me with most of the rest of your comment, when I clearly said about the same thing earlyer. I am sorry I should have simplified my comment too you more, I didnt reallize I had to do that for you. So here we go: Why are you being confrontational with me on the rest of your comment, when if you read what I wrote before is it similar to what you said. I hope that helps.

Once again, I cant make it any clearer for you. It is a perfect example of how people dont want to look at anything but what they have decided is what something should be. It pertains to this case because Credit Suisse doesn't really go any further then to say dont expect a big jump in share price after FCC approval, and gives his reasons. Then you have most on this Site and others, saying he is flat out wrong and is a criminal (by tring to manipulate the price of a stock), just like what happen in the example I gave before. You would think after their predictions after the DOJ ruled of 5,6, and 7 did not come true after the DOJ approved, they would be more willing to listen but I guess not. Just like as those stocks fell and some analyst were saying sell sell. people called them dumb and trying to manipulate the price so they could get in at a lower level.

I have not lost track of the issue, can you read. I have made it as clear as one can make it in my previous post that it is my position he is most likely correct. It also needed to be stated by him because if you read the prior post, you will see there still are people that think the price will jump big time after the FCC rules in favor of it. That is also why Tyler agrees mostly with this analyst, to give him more creditability. Most who read this here also likely read his blog at Sirius Buzz and know he is vary informed about SIRI and has no real vested intrest in SIRI. So people would be more inclinded to believe this information to be on the up and up and not someone just tying to manipulate the price.

[163888]

Tyler, this is jt here. My point was also that you agreed that there most likely, would not be a big jump in the stock after the FCC approval. Unless like you stated in your radio blog cast there was what you called a perfect storm. It was also my main point I was trying to get through to some here. It also it is what I believe the main point of the exert of this analyst report that was put up here.

[Tyler Savery]

JT...

It is all relative. A jump to $4 would be quite substantial to some....especially from current prices. The reason I think it will take a "perfect storm" to move this equity beyond the $4's is the number of shareholders that have been sitting on stock for some time. At one point they wanted a profit. The longer this takes, the more they will settle to simply break even. The street is getting tired. Four months ago the only thing that mattered was a merger. Now sentiment is that the merger will pass, and still matters, but added to that is how long will it take until money is made by these companies.

Over the next 6 months.....Bullish into the high $3's ? sure, if the merger happens, and things go well. Bullish into the high $4's (and maintaining it)? At this point no. There simply is not enough information to drive it at this point. That will take good guidance, good metrics, and time.

Again, simply my opinion. Thanks for the comments

[163888]

I realize that Tyler, but if you look at most that are posting here, they are pissed at this analyst because he feels in the near term the stock will only go to about 4 and not as high as they think it will. He was not bearish on it for the long term 1 and 2 years out. So that can only be the reason for so many people to be riditculing him. On top of that out of the 13 analyst I have followed none have said that any major synergies will take place for at least a year, so most should already know that part of it, and should not be a reason for the remarks people have made towards him. I am a beliver that when or if it does take off it will be a long and sustainable rally like with DISH back in 1999, most likely after they clear up the merger mess and reach critical mass (My opinion in 2 just ove years time).

[163888]

correction: in just over 2 years time

[gekko13]

Why the hell are you people even bothering to lose sleep over this? The FCC will approve on the week of April 21. There will be an immediate short term pop into the high 15's for XM. You people should not even be concerned with SIRI here. Due to the arbitrage spread that is currently built in, you all should be dumping SIRI and transfering that money over to XM. You will at least get some of your losses back immediately even if XM doesn't pop after the merger (highly unlikely). After that POP there of course will be immediate profit taking just like the last time. So the choice is this: Take the profit then and hope that both stocks go down before the conversion? Or wait until after the conversion and then decide to sell your higher quantity of SIRI shares at a higher price?

I'll tell you this: I am holding on to all of my SIRI for three reasons:
1- Both these companies were bleeding hundreds of millions for YEARS and were trading at MUCH LOFTIER levels despite that fact, because of the cash-making potential their product offers. Now they will be ONE, and the IMMEDIATE monthly revenue will be 17+million subscribers X oh, let's just say $9.99 (for shits and giggles). All this with greatly reduced marketing expenses.

2- Terrestial radio SUCKS. I don't have anything to listen to in my old beat-up car except terrestial radio. And 75% of the time, I have it turned off. BECAUSE IT SUCKS. Commercials and crappy musical rotation. Mark my words in a couple of years, the radio as we knew it will be like the T-Rex. I can't believe people still listen to it. I would be shorting the hell out of all the radio stocks if i had more money.

3. I don't think the Ipods (and the like) will be much of a competition. Think of them just as the modern day CD player in your car. I think people will use them as a SUPPLEMENT to the satellite radio. Remember: you can't download a live talk show, football or baseball game, weather report, etc. to your mp3 or burn it to a cd, at least not while you're driving! And if you could do it, why the hell would you want to?

The bottom line? SIRI will be a MONSTER, and SOON. I'm not an analyst or an insider, and it's SOOO obvious to me? Now, don't you think all those geniuses know this too? If they don't, then I should have THEIR jobs! The stock will soar on POTENTIAL first, then the money will start ROLLING in. One other note...can you folks say "short squeeze"?

Tyler, any feedback?

J.C.

P.S. I think in a couple of years, due to the market dominance of SIRI, the FCC will eventually grant a license to another company (Clear Channel?) so they can compete with SIRI, because SIRI will be a monster.

[jbs57]

This down grade is dumb...I work at Ford Dearborn Truck installing Siris Sat. Reciever units on the top of the trucks about 3 out of 4 have them at 62 trucks per hour off the end of the line figure out the new units that will be sold this year the plant has 3 shifts for added production, this is the time to buy more SIRI at discounted prices the cheeper the better

[jbs57]

the down grade is stupid...I work for Ford Truck installing Siris Sat. reciever units on on the top of the trucks at a rate of about 3 out of 4 that times 62 trucks per hour with 3 shifts now figure out how many units will be sold this year...now is a good time to buy these are bargin prices for the long term.

[Sirius Fan]

Does anyone remember the arguments when cable TV was a new idea? "Pay for TV?? Why would anyone pay for TV when you can get it for free?" 20+ years later, we all know the answer to that question: more choices, more selection. Now, when we move to a new residence, one of the top items on the 'to do' list is to make sure our cable is connected right after the electricity is turned on.

JC hit the nail on the head with point #2...Terrestrial Radio SUCKS. "Build a better mouse trap and the world will beat a path to your door." That's what Satellite Radio is, and those of us who subscribe already know that. True, watching the stock price on a daily basis can certainly cause ulcers, but isn't the whole point of going "Long" on a stock mean looking toward the long-term? Yes, I watch the price daily as well, but I do so for the purpose of BUYING IT AT A BARGAIN!

The service isn't going anywhere. The merger will be approved. Mel Karmazin is not the type of CEO who will run this ship aground. The combined companies will become profitable. Long term, this ship will sail, and sail true. If storms scare you, then go hide in the galley or abandon ship, but don't be insulted when the rest of us don't send a post card!

[163888]

gekko13, I agree ipods do not compete with satellite radio anymore then cd players did with regular radio. Content is and will always be king.

Sirius Fan, I totally agree Mel is a genius in the radio industry. To bet against him, would be like betting against the U.S. economy, you will lose every time. If you were to ask any intelligent shareholder in the radio industry who would you want at as captain of the company they would say Mel every time. You can also bet he looked vary carfully at SIRI company dynamics before he came over to them. The last thing he wants is to go out with a loser, so he must have seen major promise in it.

[RSC]

First time on this blog.. so here goes.... (1) how much will be reduced in capitalization savings as all staff, attorneys, high level exec's, etc are removed?...(2) How much is spent in rival merchandising, in media over lap that will no longer be necessary, all that advertising is halved? ...(3) How many car companies can now jump on board with just saying "satellite radio also sir" no having to say well we only offer this brand or this brand...(4) ... Never mind that there will now be one game in town so Howard deservingly so got alot of bucks but that was it folks there will be one company to contract compete with... no saying hey i'll go to XM if you dont pay me... all that talent money in contracts will be less in coming negotiations..(5) Its coming folks. no stopping it.. the same people who said what is this Home Box Office with crazy looking antenna's on the roof... lol..... HBO folks Oh and by the way Directv uses XM solely now all directv subscribers will get to here and see a who new audience that will see the product for free...I don't know maybe its just me but not many companies worth this much being dumped.. ok go ahead and dump i'm buying your shares, lets see whos right in 2weeks, 2 months 6 months or a year... 28,100 shares Long at .77
Ron

[RSC]

Have never posted then two in an hour here is yahoo finance page short sell info, wait until the pop and all these shares need to be bought back 6.8% of the entire float is shorted!!!

NEW YORK, April 9 (Reuters) - Short interest on the Nasdaq fell 1.2
percent in late March, the exchange said on Wednesday, suggesting a slight
decrease in bearish sentiment in the stock market. For story please see
[ID:nN09293703].

Below are the five Nasdaq stocks that experienced the largest increases and
decreases in their short positions from mid-March to late March, according to
information released by the exchange.

The five companies with the largest overall short positions are also
listed.

The latest data is as of March 31, while the previous period's data is as
of March 14.
Company March 31 March 14 Net Change Pct Change
----------------------...
FIVE BIGGEST INCREASES:
Sirius Satellite (SIRI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 137,781,424 97,375,012 40,406,412 41.5
Level 3 Comm (LVLT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 243,930,977 223,577,359 20,353,618 9.1
JetBlue Airways (JBLU.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 44,094,440 37,016,900 7,077,540 19.1
EMCORE Corp (EMKR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 15,138,089 8,084,855 7,053,234 87.2
Focus Media (FMCN.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 15,908,747 9,432,201 6,476,546 68.7
FIVE BIGGEST DECREASES:
E*TRADE Financial (ETFC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 90,336,136 104,396,736 -14,060,600 -13.5
Intel Corp (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 63,195,376 75,796,996 -12,601,620 -16.6
Tellabs Inc (TLAB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 20,025,891 29,089,610 -9,063,719 -31.2
Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 41,280,401 49,814,479 -8,534,078 -17.1
Marvell (MRVL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 24,505,945 31,656,996 -7,151,051 -22.6
FIVE BIGGEST POSITIONS:
Level 3 Comm (LVLT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 243,930,977 223,577,359 20,353,618 9.1
Sirius Satellite (SIRI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 137,781,424 97,375,012 40,406,412 41.5
Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 118,383,897 123,090,091 -4,706,194 -3.8
E*TRADE Financial (ETFC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 90,336,136 104,396,736 -14,060,600 -13.5
Charter Comm (CHTR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) 87,678,485 90,953,371 -3,274,886 -3.6
Source: Nasdaq data as of March 31, Reuters Estimates
(Reporting by Emily Chasan; Editing by Andre Grenon)

[pain]

This is absolutely shameful.
This is so wierd how this stock hit such a low!
Lets be realistic.
This is a big deal if these two companies combine.
There will be no remorse and Mel will not hold back.
This man is living for this.
This is keeping him alive.
This is only getting more and more sirius.
All the shorts are gonna get shorter.
The DOJ set the tone and the FCC will follow suit!
There is no hiding how sick satrad is.
This is going to be a grand slam!

[muley101]

One overlooked synergy from the merger will be much better leverage over suppliers to lower operating costs. This will be huge in making the combined company profitable quickly. Also, there is a built up demand for new (confused) subscribers that will break loose after the FCC announcement. If BellSouth and AT&T can merge back together, nothing should stop this merger. This stock is going to $12 within a year.