Wyeth's Alzheimer's Vaccine Could Become World's #1 Drug - Barron's
-
Font Size:
Barron's magazine has a fascinating piece on Wyeth (WYE) this week.
In early 2002, Wyeth was forced to halt an Alzheimer's vaccine trial after 18 out of 300 patients developed encephalitis. Amazingly, follow-up studies found that despite the serious side effect, the vaccine apparently reduced "brain plaque" (sticky deposits thought to be the cause of Alzheimer's) and slowed the disease's advance.
Wyeth researchers believe that what caused the brain swelling was the use of an "active" inoculation that mobilizes the body's immune system to produce antibodies. So in 2005 they began testing a "passive" vaccine that supplies the plaque-fighting antibodies directly. The FDA fast-tracked the study after patients seemed to show signs of mental improvement from even moderate doses. Results of the Phase II trial of 240 patients are due in June, and an ongoing Phase III trial, involving 4,100 people and costing an estimated $300 million speaks volumes about Wyeth's outlook for the drug.
It's important to note that all existing Alzheimer's treatments (made by NVS, PFE, JNJ and FRX) only ease symptoms. Wyeth's drug "could be the breakthrough the world needs for Alzheimer's. It's not going to be an incremental symptomatic improvement. If it works, it's going to be a huge leap," VP Joe Camardo says.
Health-care investor Larry Feinberg, whose flagship health-care hedge fund has averaged 21% over the past 18 years, says the drug ("bapineuzumab") could "easily surpass the $13 billion in sales of Pfizer's cholesterol drug, Lipitor, to become the biggest drug of all time." The effect on Wyeth's shares: 50% gains over the next year.
Other biotech companies are, predictably, doing their own Alzheimer's research. Prana Biotechnology (PRAN), a tiny Australian company, jumped late February after positive Phase II results for a treatment that aims to reduce or eliminate beta-amyloid creation and plaque buildup through reduction of naturally occurring body metals.
Neurochem (NRMX), whose Alzhemed failed to get the FDA nod, said in November it would market the drug as an off-the-shelf "nutraceutical" after some patients and clinicians continued to demand it.
With more than five million Alzheimer's sufferers, a substantive cure could potentially impact nursing home stocks such as SNH, SRZ, BKD, ALC and HCR.
Get Seeking Alpha Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Get Free Stock Alerts by Email!
-
Editor's Picks
-
Most Popular
- New Middle East Oil Kingpins ETF: More Concentrated, Slightly Pricier
- Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida: The News We've Been Waiting For
- MEMC Electronic: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?
- What's Behind the Slide in Oil and Commodities?
- In a Vulnerable Bond Market, Two ProShares ETFs To Consider
- AOL To Shutter a Slew of Products
- Full list of Editor's Picks »
- Three Stocks To Be Held To Infinity and Beyond »
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News »
- Things You Would Never Have Said Eight Days Ago »
- Making Sense of Wachovia's 27% Bounce Amid Record Losses »
- Apple vs. Bank of America: When "Whisper Numbers" Come Home to Roost »
- Four Long-Term Winners Selling at Deep Discounts »
- FCC Commissioner Copps Votes "No" to Radio Merger: No Surprise »
- The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust »
- E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corporation Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript »
- Financials: How - And When - We Reached the Bottom »
- AT&T Comments on Apple's 3G iPhone »
-
Long Ideas
-
Short Ideas
-
Cramer's Picks
- Profiting from the Pickens Plan: FAN, Clean Fuels, Fuel Systems
- Happy Days for Panera
- Mechel: Putin’s Remarks Create Opportunity for an Attractive Volatility Play
- Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co.'s Meltdown Was Overdone
- NVIDIA's Long-Term Prospects Mean It's Currently Undervalued
- Time For Wall Street to Get Back on the POT
- Finding Value in the Aerospace and Defense Sector
- Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida: The News We've Been Waiting For
- GeoEye: Interview with the CEO and CFO
- MEMC Electronic: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?
- Full list of Long Ideas »
- ESCO Technologies: Bound to Fall?
- The Hardest Trade - Fast Money Recap (7/24/08)
- Collateral Damage From the War on Shorts
- Is the Gold Uptrend Over?
- Response to Raymond James' Q3 Conference Call
- eBay is a Not Com - Cramer's Lightning Round (7/23/08)
- Get True Religion - Cramer's Lightning Round (7/22/08)
- Principal Financial Group Vulnerable to Commercial Real Estate Softening?
- Increases in Shorting, Only for Some
- Is a Ban on Short Financial ETFs on the Horizon?
- Full list of Short Ideas »
- Happy Days for Panera
- TUP Up - Cramer's Mad Money (7/24/08)
- Buy Rent-A-Center -- Cramer's Lightning Round (7/24/08)
- Citi vs XTO Energy -- Cramer's Stop Trading! (7/24/08)
- eBay is a Not Com - Cramer's Lightning Round (7/23/08)
- Buy Costco, Get Sirius - Cramer's Stop Trading! (7/23/08)
- Soup Target; Cramer's Mad Money (7/22/08)
- Get True Religion - Cramer's Lightning Round (7/22/08)
- Copper Down Low - Cramer's Stop Trading! (7/22/08)
- Banks Hit Bottom – Cramer’s Mad Money (7/21/08)
- Full list of Cramers Picks »
Most Popular Feeds
-
ETFs
-
US Market
-
Long Ideas
-
Alt. Energy
- Full list of feeds »
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers:
- Search jobs by category
- Get job alerts by email or live feed
- Apply online
Employers
- See all recruitment options
- Get applications online or by email



This article has 18 comments:
Eli Hoffmann
"For New Jersey-based Wyeth (ticker: WYE) and its Irish partner, Elan (ELN), the companies sponsoring the research, it would hold out the prospect of a drug with exceptional promise. And for Wyeth, in particular -- whose shares have languished for a decade and been pummeled of late -- it could ultimately mean investment redemption."
BTW: I'm VERY dubious about Prana; sounds too good to be true.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Here we are several years later and the Elan bet seems to be panning out. Whatta world we live in!
Potential love benefits priceless.
Tiedeman
Kenny Rogers: "You gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em..."
Moral: Cover your short Einstein; you're barking up the wrong tree.
Eli Hoffmann
Having said that, I don't think discussions of the therapeutic and commercial benefits of new medicines are mutually exclusive. If all the medicines waiting to be discovered were to have to wait for massive charitable donations alone before they were discovered, I daresay the wait would be a whole lot longer. The fact commercial interests can make big money from breakthrough medicines is no doubt an impetus for their discovery and development, and as such I think the discussion thereof is healthy and should be facilitated.