Wyeth's Alzheimer's Vaccine Could Become World's #1 Drug - Barron's

Barron's magazine has a fascinating piece on Wyeth (WYE) this week.

In early 2002, Wyeth was forced to halt an Alzheimer's vaccine trial after 18 out of 300 patients developed encephalitis. Amazingly, follow-up studies found that despite the serious side effect, the vaccine apparently reduced "brain plaque" (sticky deposits thought to be the cause of Alzheimer's) and slowed the disease's advance.

Wyeth researchers believe that what caused the brain swelling was the use of an "active" inoculation that mobilizes the body's immune system to produce antibodies. So in 2005 they began testing a "passive" vaccine that supplies the plaque-fighting antibodies directly. The FDA fast-tracked the study after patients seemed to show signs of mental improvement from even moderate doses. Results of the Phase II trial of 240 patients are due in June, and an ongoing Phase III trial, involving 4,100 people and costing an estimated $300 million speaks volumes about Wyeth's outlook for the drug.

It's important to note that all existing Alzheimer's treatments (made by NVS, PFE, JNJ and FRX) only ease symptoms. Wyeth's drug "could be the breakthrough the world needs for Alzheimer's. It's not going to be an incremental symptomatic improvement. If it works, it's going to be a huge leap," VP Joe Camardo says.

Health-care investor Larry Feinberg, whose flagship health-care hedge fund has averaged 21% over the past 18 years, says the drug ("bapineuzumab") could "easily surpass the $13 billion in sales of Pfizer's cholesterol drug, Lipitor, to become the biggest drug of all time." The effect on Wyeth's shares: 50% gains over the next year.

Other biotech companies are, predictably, doing their own Alzheimer's research. Prana Biotechnology (PRAN), a tiny Australian company, jumped late February after positive Phase II results for a treatment that aims to reduce or eliminate beta-amyloid creation and plaque buildup through reduction of naturally occurring body metals.

Neurochem (NRMX), whose Alzhemed failed to get the FDA nod, said in November it would market the drug as an off-the-shelf "nutraceutical" after some patients and clinicians continued to demand it.

With more than five million Alzheimer's sufferers, a substantive cure could potentially impact nursing home stocks such as SNH, SRZ, BKD, ALC and HCR.

Comments

[AZErnie]

Interesting that the commentaries on this center on Wyeth when the drug comes from Elan and successful sales could impact Elan's share pps 3 times more the Wyeth's (1.3 billion shares VS Elan's 467 million).

[SA EditorEli Hoffmann]

AZErnie: To be fair, Barron's does mention Elan (ELN) in passing. Here's the quote:

"For New Jersey-based Wyeth (ticker: WYE) and its Irish partner, Elan (ELN), the companies sponsoring the research, it would hold out the prospect of a drug with exceptional promise. And for Wyeth, in particular -- whose shares have languished for a decade and been pummeled of late -- it could ultimately mean investment redemption."

[BIOSTREET]

PRANA'S (PRAN) DRUG, PBT2, DOES NOT REDUCE BODY METALS. IT ATTRACTS COPPER AND ZINC AWAY FROM THE TOXIC ABETA PROTEIN THAT CAUSES ALZHEIMER'S. IN DOING SO, THE DRUG NEUTRALIZES ABETA'S NEUROTOXICITY IN THE BRAIN. MEANWHILE, METAL LEVELS IN THE BODY ARE NOT AFFECTED--THIS IS NOT A CHELATOR. PRANA'S PHASE IIA CLINICAL TRIALS WERE VERY ENCOURAGING. AT THE END OF THE DAY, A DRUG THERAPY INVOLVING AN ORALLY ADMNISTERED PILL WILL BE MUCH MORE ATTRACTIVE AND ECONOMICAL ON THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM THAN HAVING TO ROUTINELY INJECT EXPENSIVE PURIFIED ANTIBODIES INTO THE BLOOD STREAM, WHICH IS THE CASE WITH WYETH'S PASSIVE VACCINE THERAPY.

[User 164492]

if routine injections are what it takes then thats what it takes to halt the progression of a condition like alzheimer's and thats what shall be done..not some junk science with metals

[Vancan]

Disclosures?

[Tom B]

I hope the results look good. I've had some ELN under water for some time.

BTW: I'm VERY dubious about Prana; sounds too good to be true.

[optiondragon]

Here is my WYE/ELN alzhiemer's drug analysis, they are working together on the drug, my article is on Seeking Alpha...
seekingalpha.com/artic...

[174460]

Why are they delaying the announcement of the phase II studies until June? If they felt they had significant enough results to start a huge phase II program, shouldn't they have disclosed the basis for their decision?

[174460]

Sorry, "huge Phase III program"

[Rick S.]

I'm feeling quite virtuous right now. Several years ago I bought some Elan shares precisely because they were working on Alzheimer's. At the time I thought that someone had to take some shares off the hands of the entrepreneurial investors in order that they could move on to financing another potential biotech biggie. The amount I put in was an amount I decided I could afford to lose--which is what I half expected to do.

Here we are several years later and the Elan bet seems to be panning out. Whatta world we live in!

[mythoughts]

It's a shame that al the comments are about the potential stock price increase from the drug, where the real comments should be about the potential benefits to the people and the families suffering from Alzheimer's disease.

[optiondragon]

Could not agree more it's a huge medical breakthrough!!! Mankind wins.
Potential love benefits priceless.

[AmesTiedeman]

I think this is real and very much worth the risk of getting long.

[Hpoetker]

CAUTION: Experiments with dogs showed that removing the plaque still had little effect on the mental performance of the dogs. The neurons were still damaged and needed repair. See the following website: www.eurekalert.org/pub...

[Hpoetker]

CAUTION: A just published study with dogs showed that removing their plaque still did not appreciably improve their mental performance. The neurons were still basically damaged and needed further repair. In other words, the plaque was just a band aid. See this website: www.eurekalert.org/pub...

[tsw0014u]

"CAUTION: Experiments with dogs showed that ..."

Kenny Rogers: "You gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em..."

Moral: Cover your short Einstein; you're barking up the wrong tree.

[cack211]

My husband passed away a few weeks ago after years of wasting away from the effects of Alzheimer's Disease. Those who talk only about stock benefits and the business angle have never watched someone they love die a minute at a time, not understanding why they can't think, can't remember, can't concentrate. A drug that could potentially reverse some of that, and relieve the anguish for the patient and for the family - deserve to be the only story. The billions for Wyeth are nice, but how wonderful it will be for future patients to get some of their lives back! I would have given anything to have had this opportunity for my husband!

[SA EditorEli Hoffmann]

cack211 -- very sorry about your loss. I indeed hope this, or something like it, is the breakthrough that so many are waiting for.

Having said that, I don't think discussions of the therapeutic and commercial benefits of new medicines are mutually exclusive. If all the medicines waiting to be discovered were to have to wait for massive charitable donations alone before they were discovered, I daresay the wait would be a whole lot longer. The fact commercial interests can make big money from breakthrough medicines is no doubt an impetus for their discovery and development, and as such I think the discussion thereof is healthy and should be facilitated.