Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday July 10.
Finally, Something To Like About Facebook (FB)
Is Facebook (FB), which had one of the most disastrous IPOs in recent memory, finally low enough to buy? The stock is 6 points lower than its IPO price. Cramer is nervous about buying FB because of the radical transition to mobile; since FB depends on advertising for revenue, and mobile advertising commands cheaper rates, FB will be hurt by this trend. However, just looking at the chart, there seems to be something to like about Facebook.
In the first day of trading, there were two clues that showed that FB's IPO would fail. First, the stock did not stay above its opening price. Second, the fact that FB closed below its opening price shows the IPO was mispriced. According to the charts, FB is showing a cup and handle formation, which is a bullish sign. Also, demand for shares seems to be catching up with supply. According to Scott Reddler, technical analyst at RealMoney.com, if FB breaks through $32.50, it could go to $40, but Cramer is still worried about the fundamental trend toward mobile, and would wait and see before buying FB.
"Two hundred and seventy-one little words of inelegant prose from Columbus, Indiana took down the whole stock market," said Cramer of the Dow's 83 point dive after bearish statements from management of Indiana-based Cummins Engine (CMI). While the company announced a 25% dividend increase, it lowered its 2012 outlook from a 10% increase to merely in-line with 2011. It was specific statements from management about a slowdown in demand from Brazil, India and China that brought pessimism. Cramer thinks the statement from Cummins is a reason to get out of industrials ahead of earnings season, as well as Alcoa (AA), which is also seeing a fall-off in aluminum demand.
Cramer took a call:
Ford (F) will be hurt by the strong dollar and weakness in Europe.
Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) was chosen among followers of Jim Cramer on Twitter as the champion stock for the second half of 2012, but Cramer disagrees with this pick. The stock has rallied $225 on the potential approval of its obesity drug by the FDA; this will be the first major obesity drug for 10 years. The drug could generate $2 billion in revenue, equal to Arena's present market cap of $2 billion. In addition to the fact that Arena has already risen substantially, the story is not perfect. The obesity drug is not as effective as initially thought, and there are substantial cases of side effects, including hallucinations. Vivus Pharmaceutical (VVUS) also has an obesity drug awaiting approval, and this drug has shown to be more effective than Arena's treatment. In addition, Vivus owns all of its drug, while Arena just owns 40% of its obesity drug. Cramer's pick among biotechs is Onyx (ONXX), which has a blood cancer drug which is expected to earn FDA approval, and already has treatments for blood and liver cancer.
CEO Jeff Bradley, Globe Specialty Metals (GSM)
Globe Specialty Metals (GSM) has 50% market share in many of the alloys it produces, and the company sees silicone production increasing 35% by 2016. The stock has been hammered, and is down 29% so far this year because of troubled end markets and lower demand from the steel and aluminum industries. However, it could be that much of this weakness has been baked in to GSM's stock; the company has seen sales rise 5% and volumes up 19%, although GSM missed its earnings estimates.
CEO Jeff Bradley emphasized that the reason GSM will remain a low-cost producer is that it owns its supply chain, from wood chips to specialty coal mines. The silicone alloys are used in personal care products, like shampoo and toothpaste, semiconductors and the solar industry. Bradley said the company did not lose money during the previous recession, and is unlikely to get hurt during a downturn. While Cramer likes GSM's story, he added, "Unfortunately, perception matters more than reality in your industry."
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