Solar Stocks Continue to Roll 16 comments
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Solar stocks had another blowout week led by LDK Solar’s (LDK) 25% gain. First Solar (FSLR), Sunpower (SPWR) and Suntech Power (STP), what I consider the first-tier solar companies, all had a gain close to or above 20% for the week.
Also, interesting to note is that First Solar is now the only Solar stock that has a positive gain in 2008. Sunpower (SPWR) and Suntech Power are still about 30% and 40% down in 2008 respectively.
Suntech Power (STP) has gone from about 30 to 50 in the last two weeks with Sunpower (SPWR) going from 60 to 90 in the same time frame. So do they get back to 2007 highs?
I mentioned in my article last week that I missed an opportunity to buy Suntech Power (STP) in the low 30’s but now I even missed the opportunity to buy in the low 40’s.
I think this is the case of ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’. There are solar stocks out there that had no business going up but benefited by the overall solar rally. So what I am planning on doing now is to look at second-tier solar stocks that could be shorted (via PUTS) while staying away from from FSLR, STP and SPWR until I see an opportunity to go long.
What do you all think?
Solar Stocks Weekly and YTD Price Change - Week ending April 04, 2008:
click to enlarge
Disclosure: No holdings in any of the above mentioned stocks.
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This article has 16 comments:
Understand your regret, but just be happy, and wait for the next opportunity, if there is one, rather than getting burned by running behind the facts. Going short is a very bad idea with these very volatile Chinese stock with a very big potential. Sit tight, and don't miss out the ride on the next leg of the bull run. If you really don't want to miss out, and you feel it's really going to go down, take a smaller position now and load up as it goes down. Point is, long is the only strategy here, unless we're in the stratosphere with PE's of well beyond 30+. CSIQ and SOLF are still around 10, way to go.
You could also short the higher PE shares like STP and FSLR and load up on the lower PE shares like CSIQ and SOLF. That way you're hedged, but you'll miss out on a lot of potential. But you know what, if you dare to go short, that show's you have a lot of courage, and this is really a chicken strategy, so follow the marbles strategy and go all out for the +.
I'm long CSIQ (from 19) and SOLF (from 18!), and boy, you need nerve to just sit tight and do nothing, but I'm convinced CSIQ is going much higher, only, it may be too soon. I'm looking for signs of the entire Chinese shares correction to shows signs of abating. I don't think it's far off, perhaps one more leg, but not more than that. If there is another leg, (hope not!) then make sure you're on the train. SOLF is another story, they caught me with a dilutive share action. Even so, I'm still looking for 20+.
Or do you know?
Prediction: Democratic president = huge windfall for green energy. Get in early!
But I'll still buy puts on the stocks, because there is enough demand, money, and greed in China to push everything up for awhile yet. A bit of profit taking for a couple days, then off to the races again.
I suggest puts-- buy out short-term, maybe June, a few strikes ahead of the going price, and each 5% move of a stock will move your position 70%-100%. I tripled my investment spread over all the names mentioned in this article and a few more, last week alone. Of course you can go down just as fast...
I'm not saying you're wrong -- I'm not a scientist -- but whether it is
mainstream scientific magazines like the two I mentioned above, or the mainstream media, the "end" of the global warming theory seems to me to be highly exaggerated.
One fellow at the grocery store I go to even told me that the polar ice caps had recovered most of their ice this year! While I keep an open mind, I've yet to see anyone say this besides this person, whether they're neighbors or scientific folks or the media (of any stripe or persuasion).
Still -- it would be nice if we could honestly say goodbye to a scenario in which our weather becomes less pleasant.
Personally, I have to agree that the two Democratic candidates have not dealt with the issue enough at all -- and the reason is that
the two major political parties have never really cared that much about any problem -- because the voting public don't insist on it. But I would still prefer a Democrat over a Republican. A Nader, a Green, or perhaps a Libertarian would be far preferable. But I don't sense any real movement in my fellow humans that would justify believing that such third party candidates have much of a chance at winning.
I've yet to hear anything, but I have a plan? Yes, what is it?
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