Solar Stocks Continue to Roll

Solar stocks had another blowout week led by LDK Solar’s (LDK) 25% gain. First Solar (FSLR), Sunpower (SPWR) and Suntech Power (STP), what I consider the first-tier solar companies, all had a gain close to or above 20% for the week.

Also, interesting to note is that First Solar is now the only Solar stock that has a positive gain in 2008. Sunpower (SPWR) and Suntech Power are still about 30% and 40% down in 2008 respectively.

Suntech Power (STP) has gone from about 30 to 50 in the last two weeks with Sunpower (SPWR) going from 60 to 90 in the same time frame. So do they get back to 2007 highs?

I mentioned in my article last week that I missed an opportunity to buy Suntech Power (STP) in the low 30’s but now I even missed the opportunity to buy in the low 40’s.

I think this is the case of ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’. There are solar stocks out there that had no business going up but benefited by the overall solar rally. So what I am planning on doing now is to look at second-tier solar stocks that could be shorted (via PUTS) while staying away from from FSLR, STP and SPWR until I see an opportunity to go long.

What do you all think?

Solar Stocks Weekly and YTD Price Change - Week ending April 04, 2008:

click to enlarge

Disclosure: No holdings in any of the above mentioned stocks.

Comments

[windinmyface2]

Solarfun, SOLF, was doing great up till January when everything went down, now it has gone up to $16.77 from $9.00, and has a good out look.

[gebby]

Enter your comment here mentioned in your last post it was more risky not to buy. the same holds true now. just buy. the fundamentals are too favorable. the idea of waiting for a sell off may mean you miss the move back up. why shouldn't all these stocks revisit their highs. the fundamentals for the companies and the economy and the global warming realities are in place.

[Van Gastel]

Himanshu,

Understand your regret, but just be happy, and wait for the next opportunity, if there is one, rather than getting burned by running behind the facts. Going short is a very bad idea with these very volatile Chinese stock with a very big potential. Sit tight, and don't miss out the ride on the next leg of the bull run. If you really don't want to miss out, and you feel it's really going to go down, take a smaller position now and load up as it goes down. Point is, long is the only strategy here, unless we're in the stratosphere with PE's of well beyond 30+. CSIQ and SOLF are still around 10, way to go.

You could also short the higher PE shares like STP and FSLR and load up on the lower PE shares like CSIQ and SOLF. That way you're hedged, but you'll miss out on a lot of potential. But you know what, if you dare to go short, that show's you have a lot of courage, and this is really a chicken strategy, so follow the marbles strategy and go all out for the +.

I'm long CSIQ (from 19) and SOLF (from 18!), and boy, you need nerve to just sit tight and do nothing, but I'm convinced CSIQ is going much higher, only, it may be too soon. I'm looking for signs of the entire Chinese shares correction to shows signs of abating. I don't think it's far off, perhaps one more leg, but not more than that. If there is another leg, (hope not!) then make sure you're on the train. SOLF is another story, they caught me with a dilutive share action. Even so, I'm still looking for 20+.

[jimmy46]

So which ones had no business going up?

Or do you know?

[Tonky]

I'm into Spire Technologies (SPIR: Nasdaq) long term for a few hundred bucks. They have sealed a number of international contracts (Korea, China, Germany) in the last two months. They also were also recently awarded a patent for a next generation solar wafer technology.

Prediction: Democratic president = huge windfall for green energy. Get in early!

[User 134327]

Even the people who still live on grants funded because of 'global warming' will admit that global temps (land, water, atmospheric), after rising until 1998, have decreased for 10 years straight. Many scientists have left the 'cause'-- too many to all be accused of being paid off by the oil industry (the standard smear of the greenies). I encourage you all to do the work of reading the literature--instead of swallowing the sheep food that the NYT gives you. It appears that even the lefties are smart enough to finally get the science-- that's why it is not a major issue of either Dem campaign, and Al is running around like crazy, afraid they'll take his award away!

But I'll still buy puts on the stocks, because there is enough demand, money, and greed in China to push everything up for awhile yet. A bit of profit taking for a couple days, then off to the races again.

I suggest puts-- buy out short-term, maybe June, a few strikes ahead of the going price, and each 5% move of a stock will move your position 70%-100%. I tripled my investment spread over all the names mentioned in this article and a few more, last week alone. Of course you can go down just as fast...

[jajagabor]

User 134327, you say that temps after 1998 have decreased for 10 years straight (except in the NYT), but I haven't seen or heard that from the likes of Scientific American, or Discovery Magazine, the Science Channel, or anyone else.

I'm not saying you're wrong -- I'm not a scientist -- but whether it is
mainstream scientific magazines like the two I mentioned above, or the mainstream media, the "end" of the global warming theory seems to me to be highly exaggerated.

One fellow at the grocery store I go to even told me that the polar ice caps had recovered most of their ice this year! While I keep an open mind, I've yet to see anyone say this besides this person, whether they're neighbors or scientific folks or the media (of any stripe or persuasion).

Still -- it would be nice if we could honestly say goodbye to a scenario in which our weather becomes less pleasant.

Personally, I have to agree that the two Democratic candidates have not dealt with the issue enough at all -- and the reason is that
the two major political parties have never really cared that much about any problem -- because the voting public don't insist on it. But I would still prefer a Democrat over a Republican. A Nader, a Green, or perhaps a Libertarian would be far preferable. But I don't sense any real movement in my fellow humans that would justify believing that such third party candidates have much of a chance at winning.

[windinmyface2]

coal to gas

[windinmyface2]

I wouldn't give you 2 cents for any of the Democrats running!!!!!!!!!!!!
I've yet to hear anything, but I have a plan? Yes, what is it?

[aurora703]

Solar has more to correct. Buy coal in the meantime, not clean but cheaper than oil and nat. gas, as well as alt. energy, and we need to get power from somewhere. Also, clean coal tech. is on the way and the US has plenty of it.

[windinmyface2]

For those familiar with the energy industry as a whole and the politics associated with them, coal has always been the black sheep of the energy spectrum. Strong public disinformation has been an Achilles heel for coal companies in the past and the present is no exception - witness Saint Gore's idea that despite the world's current energy crunch, there should be a moratorium on building any new coal-fired energy plants.

Arch Coal, more than any other company in the industry, is trying to erase the stereotypes of years past and gain public support for an industry which has so much to offer those seeking true energy independence. Through its equity share in a CTG facility in Wyoming, its unprecedented full environmental impact report on Mountain Laurel, and its inclusion in Forbes' list of the most trustworthy companies, Arch is the model for the modern energy company.

[steve pluvia]

Pandya, from your comments and actions, you should think about letting others invest your dollars. You don't seem to understand the metrics driving solar companies or how the stock market works and I doubt you understand the difference between the technology behind the products.

[Slyhorse]

I am a licensed mechanical engineer so i might have something to say. Coal is as dirty as a fuel can get, and I dont think coal to gas is competitve anyway. I have my bets on solar and wind for the long term.

[Clearlead]

fyi, wind guys are way ahead of the solar guys on getting to the grid, I see for the near term solar as retail, wind as wholesale...but both will grow and not to forget so will demand response providers...supply is not the only story...take a look at Texas where wind went down and the grid operators used demand response (not baseload coal) to prevent a crash.

[mms]

ncen- what is the story?

[supershort]

They sure are on a roll...they are about to roll over.

[buyforeclosures]

CSIQ had its run! Maybe SOLF and SOL also had theirs! But YGE may still have alot of upside and I think SOL may just go to $25..but its risky, they are al lrisky but use your triggers! May be a lot of money still to be made but protect your loss from ALL of these. OIL goes down these stocks are in TROUBLE