Commodity Forecasters See Prices Declining

Even though commodities have rallied significantly in recent months, quarters and years, commodity analysts as a whole still think they're too pricey. Below we highlight the median price targets for Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Silver for the next four quarters and 2009, 2010 and 2011.

As shown, each chart is downward sloping from the current price. The median analyst has an Oil price target of $88 for the end of 2008 and $80 by year-end 2011. Natural Gas is expected to decline from $9.89 to $8.85 by year end and $8.00 by year-end 2011. Gold and Silver are expected to fall, but much less than Oil and Natural Gas. The median year-end 2008 price target is $900 for Gold and $16 for Silver.

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Comments

[fanning:]

May be that is why gold price cannot stay above $1,000 for long because of central banks selling?

2008 Apr 08 04:11 PM

[marxbites:]

The WW central banking system of fiat money IS selling to manipulate the price and heavies like Greenspam have admitted so.

Goto gata.org for the whole story of paper funny money makers trying extremely hard to make the world still believe the phony stuff has any value whatsoever left in any of them.

The scrip nobility's robbery of the taxpayer vias interest and inflation of worthless unredeemable paper may meltdown around their very feet.

The problem is that the vast amount of wealth they have embezzled from generations of Americans can never be recovered - but I say we still should by dividing up every single Foundation and Trust among the people as a good starting point.

Now Banking Reparations is a reparations I can get behind!!

Anyone else feel they deserve a chunk of a Rothschild, Rockefeller or Morgan's fortunes amassed since 1913 when their cartelization via the Fed ended any real competition between them?

2008 Apr 08 04:22 PM

[NaplesJack:]

The economists have NOT correctly forecasted commodities for the last 5 years. They are equally lame in forecasting the GDP growth in China and India for the past 9 years.
China and India are creating the tremendious incremental demand for commodities thus creating the demand -supply inbalence. The chinesse are not going back to riding their 2 wheelers to work, or eating less protean, nor stopping their construction of roads, ports, housing and factories. After all, they have $1.3 Trillion in foreign reserves, mostly in depreciating USDX's, so they have the money.
Conclusion--commoditie... are in demand and will be bid up in a short supply situation.

2008 Apr 08 04:35 PM

[2-cents:]

NaplesJack- Well said! Economists have a hard time to understand the meaning of "finite".

2008 Apr 08 05:58 PM

[misterchan:]

Every article presented by Bespoke attempts to cast aside commodities as worthless and not worthy of serious and intelligent consideration. After seeing their name, I knew what to expect before reading even one line. Of what use are their slanted statements? Lots of people feel that way about commodities, and especially gold. But thankfully there are lots of choices when looking for info and ideas. BESPOKE HAS SPOKE. And now let's find something unbiased and intelligent to listen to for financial ideas.

2008 Apr 08 07:12 PM

[The Smart One:]

Wow! I always knew anal-ysts were dumb, but after reading this article I don't think there is a word dummer than dumb to describe them. Where are they getting their information from? Their mommies?!
This is just the tip of the iceberg of the gold and silver bull market. I agree with the above charts....if you stand on your damn head!

2008 Apr 08 07:17 PM

[coaster:]

I have a hard time separating such forecasts from the wishful thinking of consumers. Is the world going to use less oil in three years or are discoveries going to increase significantly or are alternatives going to supplant crude? I’ve seen other forecasters come up a $500 barrel in 2012. One thing is certain, there making more consumers, not more commodities.

2008 Apr 08 07:26 PM

[Anti-federa...:]

At what point though does the price either severely crimp demand and price or drive a real search for an alternative?

Surely OPEC is concerned with the cost of oil spurring an effort to replace it?

2008 Apr 08 08:08 PM

[E.D. Hart:]

See Canada's Financial Post Article for Why analysts get it wrong:
www.financialpost.com/...

2008 Apr 08 08:33 PM

[WCP:]

Eliminate the speculators and eliminate the high prices. Legislate or regulate them out of business or simply liquidate them as the how matters not to me, only the result, LOWER prices!

2008 Apr 08 10:39 PM

[Kezorm:]

"Bespoke Group" ??? More like science fiction theatre!

2008 Apr 08 11:04 PM

[slider:]

I heard this reheotric before. I recall Richard Rainwater on Wall Street Week being ridiculed for wanting to buy oil at 12 to 15 per barrel. I owe a debt of gratitude to him. "Bespoke Who"?

2008 Apr 09 12:49 AM

[buyforeclos...:]

We have all been getting screwed by Big oil and the US has noit done anything to regulate it because of the huge tax revenues they get...but now that they are under the microscope maybe oil will go down to 80 bucks a barrel... its actual value is about 60 bucks but we have been played for a long time...all over the globe. Our Arab enemies keep getting richer and the Govt doesn't seem to get it...whatever.

2008 Apr 09 08:31 AM

[flatman:]

I can believe those charts IF we have a pretty broad and widespread recession. If the Fed keeps printing paper, however, in an attempt to prevent one, those charts will be totally bogus.

2008 Apr 09 09:02 AM

[NOWHEREMAN:]

The ANALYSTS have spoken......who are these analysts, have any of them been correct over the past 5-6 years or is this just a consensus of "also rans".

Is the Bespoke Group short commodities?

The current buying power of the Sovereign Wealth funds is more than all of the hedge funds in the world and they do not have to raise money. They are diversifying out of currencies.

I'll stick my neck out: Copper will be above $5 before it goes below $3.....Gold will be above $1200 before it sees $800.....silver could go to $16 but that's only a 10% drop..below that......get serious...I will be buying silver miners like CDE hand over fist in the 15-16 dollar area, with the expectation of $30 within the next 12 months...

What happens if just one of these Sovereign funds parks a row of supertankers along the East coast and asks for delivery of a couple of thousand oil futures contracts or asks for delivery of any number of other commodities....they have over a TRILLION to invest and geting more every year.....ANAL-YSTS

2008 Apr 09 10:21 AM

[rbblum:]

Reputations can come and go . . . as quickly as a click of the mouse.

Care to provide any reference as to source or how the chart data was derived? Or are we to assume every author has an 'off' day.

2008 Apr 09 04:47 PM

[E.D. Hart:]

I have been an avid commodity investor since 1997. Every year, professional analysts are quoted in Barrons, WSJ, and Fortune, that state commodities are poor investment, due for a correction, etc.

I recall in particular the years 2000 through 2002 as particularly unkind to the commodity investor--in the media. But the money made has been superior to any of the alternatives.

I have been long gold since 1997 and it has more than made up for my losses on conservative blue chip stock losses. Wheres the risk?

In approximately 10 years, the media will report that commodities are a safe and lucrative investment.

And in 15 years, you will read widespread articles that stocks and bonds aren't such a good idea to invest in, as they don't keep pace with a well diversified commodity portfolio.

At that time, 15 years hence, I will switch out of commodities and into stocks and bonds.

2008 Apr 09 05:55 PM

[NOWHEREMAN:]

The Bespoke group has been cooking up their own versions of charts and interpretations of the same for a while now. Everything points to a bubble regardless of the facts....the latest of the facts is that China is expected to increase their import of copper by 20% over the next 4 years...I guess our recession better last at least that long....meanwhile the IMF(I'm working on the Blind Squirrell Theory) projects another 700 Billion in losses...how do spell that furry rodent's name anyway...did I get it right?

2008 Apr 10 02:39 AM

[chux02:]

I'd like to personally buy EVERY $12 ounce of silver in 2011 that you can deliver me...EVERYONE OF THEM. $12 an ounce silver in 2011...that's too funny!!

2008 Apr 13 01:50 AM