Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Wednesday July 11.
The outrage over Cramer's position on Arena Pharmaceutical (ARNA) created what he called a "teachable moment" about the excesses of emotion in investing. Cramer asked Twitter followers to vote for what they believed would be the top-performing stock of the second half of the year. When the winner was Arena, Cramer admitted he was skeptical about more upside in the stock, since it has already risen 500% for the year, it might face competition for its obesity drug, and the drug might not be as effective as expected. After Twitter followers responded with anger and criticism, Cramer defended his position.
First, Arena is a speculative stock, and with high-risk stocks, investors should always take gains. Second, even a great company cannot buck a general downward trend in the market. Cramer used Cummins (CMI), as an example of a well-run company which has seen its stock price fall 8% recently. Third, Cramer thought Arena looked similar to Dendreon (DNDN), a stock about which Cramer had expressed skepticism, and which has fallen 83% off its high, and an additional 6% recently on weaker than expected performance of its main drug, Provenge. He urged investors not to become a fan of a stock the way they would root for a sports team. An investing thesis for a particular stock should always be evaluated and tested.
Cramer took some calls:
Arch Coal (ACI) will continue to suffer on the secular decline in coal.
hhgregg (HGG) got hammered on Wednesday, but Cramer doesn't have enough conviction in the stock to recommend buying it on weakness.
CEO Interview: Vivek Ranadive, Tibco Software (NASDAQ:TIBX)
While tech is a sector that has been punished of late, Tibco (TIBX) seems to be guilty only by association. It reported a terrific quarter and shot up 11.5%, but it has since fallen to just below its level prior to earnings. Like other tech names, it was brought down on European worries and dour reports from its peers. However, TIBX's sales rose 17% in the Americas and 40% in Asia. CEO Vivek Ranadive discussed how his company has made a huge push into social networking; "We expand, we engage and monetize." The company has information on 250 million potential consumers whom it targets for advertising.
"Tibco is up against big competitors, but is doing quite well," said Cramer. "It is a tough cohort, but they are top of the heap."
After an IPO drought following the Facebook (FB) fiasco, Morgan Stanley might just redeem itself after bringing Facebook public with two fresh IPOs: Kayak (expected to trade under the symbol KYAK) and Palo Alto (PLTO). Kayak is a very popular travel site which aggregates deals from other sources. The company doesn't take a booking fee, but makes most of its revenues through advertising and referrals. The company expects revenues to rise from 31-34% year over year and income from operations to rise in the triple digits. The offering is rather small, with 3.5 million shares expected to price between $22 and $25. Cramer would not stay in Kayak, but would take the first day gains, given the risks involved with mobile advertising and the seasonal nature of travel.
Palo Alto Networks could be a sizzling IPO, but a not-so-hot investment. The company makes cyber security systems and has a 25% compound annual growth rate. It is expected to trade between $34 and $37. However, given how troubled the tech sector is, Cramer would take the money and run after its IPO.
Cramer took some calls:
GasLog (GLOG) recently went public. Cramer doesn't like the shipping sector, including GLOG.
Yelp (YELP) has moved from $14 to $23, but Cramer is not sure if there is much more upside.
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