Thursday Outlook: Range-Bound Trading

We only have ourselves to blame for not developing our own energy reserves. That’s been my comment/complaint since the first oil embargo 35 years ago. And, let’s just leave it at that.

What should surprise most investors is how high markets remain given all the negative news market indexes have absorbed. So, that must mean bullish conditions, right? Well, not necessarily since all we have now is a trading range which in itself is impressive.

Volume increased somewhat on the selloff Wednesday and breadth sucked.









































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Comments

[karchad:]

i would think that a trading range after a sharp market decline is bullish. At the top, I'd be scared, but at 10-20% down, i'll take a trading range for a few months anytime. The longer it goes on at this level, the more bullish it would seem to be, if one has patience

2008 Apr 10 06:59 AM

[Blaine:]

The oil embargo began during the Nixon administration, which did absolutely nothing and neither did Gerald Ford's. When Jimmy Carter became president, he installed solar panels atop the White House. He also championed nuclear power. He taxed oil company profits to fund renewable energy research. He created the U.S. Department of Energy. He introduced America to ethanol. Oil imports plummeted during the Carter administration. Renewable energy research skyrocketed.

Pres. Carter submitted a 104-page energy plan to Congress with 113 specific proposals. Builders were required to use more insulation. Appliances, refrigerators in particular, became more energy-efficient. Homeowners received tax credits to heat water with solar power and the speed limit was lowered to 55 mph to conserve gasoline.

Carter boosted renewable fuel usage from 6 percent to 7 percent of the nation's energy demands. Oil used to generate electricity disappeared.

But Ronald Reagan soon began killing off many of Carter's energy initiatives. Reagan halved the Energy Department's conservation and alternative fuels budget. Spending on photovoltaic research dropped by two-thirds. Under Reagan, Energy tax credits for homeowners disappeared. Reagan rolled back fuel-efficiency standards for cars and he had the solar panels atop the White House taken down.

Today United States imports 12 million barrels of oil daily, or 60 percent of the amount consumed. Oil and gas prices are skyrocketing. The US imports twice as much oil as it did during Carter's final year in office. Ethanol, biodiesel, solar and other alternative fuels supply no more energy than they did in 1980. And the Bush administration has given no consideration to any action that would correct our growing crisis of energy.

2008 Apr 10 09:02 AM

[User 141585:]

Blaine- Not Reagan. Bush.
Low volume on most charts.
Chucky no longer relevant. Soylent Green anyone ?

2008 Apr 10 11:12 AM

[flyoverman:]

Yes, Jimmy Carter brought inflation under control too, right? and with low interest rates. Ouch. I remember my 19% 2nd mortgage. Where are all of new nuclear power plants? That's what we need. The environmentalist and the "not in my backyard" have put the French way ahead of the US. Nuclear is where it is at.

2008 Apr 10 11:43 AM

[David Fry:]

I guess this cartoon from Michael Ramirez sums things up well for me:
www.ibdeditorials.com/...

2008 Apr 11 09:01 AM

[Blaine:]

I think that this article by in the April 11 issue of the NY Times sums it up for me.

According to a recent report by Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute, if the United States had continued to conserve oil at the rate it did in the period from 1976 to 1985, it would no longer have needed Persian Gulf oil after 1985. Had we continued this wise course, we might not have had to fight the Persian Gulf war, and we would have insulated ourselves from price shocks in the international oil market. Fuel efficiency is a sound national energy policy, economic policy and foreign policy all wrapped into one. Every increase of one mile per gallon in auto fuel efficiency yields more oil than is in two Arctic National Wildlife Refuges. An improvement right now of 2.7 miles per gallon would eliminate our need for all Persian Gulf oil!

2008 Apr 11 03:53 PM