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JDA Software Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:JDAS)

F4Q07 Earnings Call

January 28, 2008 4:45 pm ET

Executives

Hamish N.J. Brewer – President & Chief Executive Officer

Kristen L. Magnuson - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

Analysts

Andrey Glukhov - Breen Murray, Carret

Brad Reback – CIBC World Markets Corp.

Alan Cooke – Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.

Alan Weinfeld – Henley & Co., LLC

Richard Williams – Cross Research

Operator

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the JDA Software Group, Inc. fourth quarter 2007 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) This conference is being recorded today, January the 28th, 2007. I would now like to turn the conference over to Hamish Brewer. Please go ahead, sir.

Hamish N.J. Brewer

Good afternoon and welcome to the earnings results call for the fourth quarter 2007. For the second quarter straight JDA had a record quarter with total revenues of over $98 million driven by an impressive 27% software sales growth compared with the fourth quarter of 2006. This performance resulted in an exceptional 129% increase in adjusted EPS for the full year over 2006 going from $0.58 in 2006 to $1.33 a share in 2007. Furthermore we generated over $79 million in cash flow from operations in 2007 reducing our net debt to just $4.3 million only 18 months after acquiring Manugistics. With me on the call today is Kris Magnuson, CFO and Executive Vice President of JDA. Kristen will provide you with a detailed review of the quarter and the year and then I’ll discuss our overall performance in 2007 and our plans for 2008 after which I’ll open up the call for questions. So first I’d like to hand it over to Kristen

Kristen L. Magnuson

Good afternoon everyone. Before I begin let me remind you that our comments today will contain certain forward-looking statements that often involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. All statements other than statements of historical fact are statements that could be deemed to be forward-looking statements. These risks are described from time to time in our SEC reports including but not limited to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006. These comments also include certain non-GAAP measures which JDA uses internally in budgeting and performance monitoring activities to gauge our business performance. We believe these measures provide useful information to our investors in evaluating JDA’s ongoing business results. We’ve prepared a reconciliation of each of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure in our Investor Release which will be posted on our website at www.JDA.com.

Overall we achieved record revenues and earnings for the year. These results were driven primarily by strong software license sales performance and our very profitable maintenance revenue stream. Our fourth quarter software licenses revenue was up 27% year-over-year. For the full year software licenses grew 50% in total which includes organic growth of 28% including 30% from the JDA core products and 18% from the Manu product lines. All regions achieved year-over-year and sequential increases in software during the fourth quarter of 2007. All regions achieved annual increases in both the JDA core and Manu product lines.

Maintenance revenue represents 48% of our total revenues to date which provides tremendous stability for our profitability. Maintenance revenues increased from $43.8 million last quarter to $47 million in the fourth quarter of ‘07. We experienced this significant sequential increase in maintenance revenues in the fourth quarter due to the collection of $2.1 million of previously suspended past due accounts. We expect maintenance revenues to be approximately $45 million in the first quarter of 2008 after netting out the impact of the unusually high collections of past due accounts in the fourth quarter of ‘07. Our retention rate remains strong at 94.4% as does our gross profits on this piece of our business as it continues to range between 74% and 76% each quarter.

Our consulting services revenue continues to be impacted by product mix and low rate competition. Services revenue decreased $5.4 million sequentially due to the non-recurring release of approximately $3.4 million of previously deferred revenue in the third quarter of ‘07 on a Manu fixed price contract as well as seasonally lower utilization due to the Q4 holidays. The revenue declined and higher incentive comps due to the strong software performance by the company pushed service margins down to 20% in the fourth quarter of ‘07 compared to 27% in the third quarter of ‘07 after adjusting out the $2 million net impact of the Manu large contract last quarter. We expect a modest sequential improvement in services revenues in the first quarter of ‘08 due to seasonally better utilization. To help us provide more competitive service offerings and enhanced customer support during 2008 we will be increasing our investment in our Indian operations to create a Center of Excellence which Hamish will describe in greater detail later on the call.

EBITDA increased 45% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and 118% for the full year. We generated $88.7 million of EBITDA in 2007 which represents a margin of 24%. Although we had a 5% or $4.8 million increase in total revenues in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter of ‘07 our EBITDA went down sequentially due to $3.1 million of seasonally higher incentive compensation, $1.8 million higher salaries and contractor costs, a $1.3 million higher bad debt provision and $900,000 lower cost release from funded development. In 2008 we expected our total costs and expenses to rise only between 2% and 5% for the full year. However we could have some incremental expense in services and product development as we move more functions to India during the transition phase of the year. Our day sales outstanding remain in good shape at 68 days and we generated $16 million in cash flow from operations during the fourth quarter. And as Hamish mentioned we generated over $79 million in cash flow from operations for the full year 2007 and paid down our net debt to less than $4.3 million. The company is in excellent financial condition as we enter 2008.

Hamish N.J. Brewer

The fourth quarter was another milestone for JDA with over $98 million total revenues driven by very strong software sales performance. As Kris just said the company is in excellent financial health generating record revenues and profits in 2007 and with our strong cash flow from operations we’ve been able to all but eliminate the net debt position created when we acquired Manugistics in July, 2006.

Looking at 2007 as a whole compared with 2006; there are a few key metrics that I’d like to highlight. First of all software sales grew by an impressive 50%. Even if I remove the sales of Manugistics’ products core JDA software sales grew 30%. Second our sales of software to new customers grew 151% compared with 2006. Not only did the total value grow but also the percentage contribution of sales to new customers grew from 21% contribution in 2006 to 35% in 2007. Third our total revenues have grown each quarter throughout 2007 from about $91 million in the first quarter to over $98 million in this latest quarter. Fourth the EBIDTA profitability of the company has gone from strength to strength in 2007 growing 118% over 2006 and delivering a record breaking $88.7 million in 2007. And finally the $79.7 million of cash flow from operations generated in 2007 have allowed the company to de-lever to the point that we have now almost entirely eliminated the net debt position created the loan we took out to buy Manugistics. As you can imagine we feel very good about having been able to achieve that in just 18 months.

These results highlight the financial health of the business today which has never been better. But more importantly as you know software sales is also the leading indicator for JDA’s business and as such we feel very good about our prospects going forward into 2008. This tremendous achievement is no doubt primarily attributable to the transformational impact of the Manugistics acquisition upon the company. I believe that we’ve executed the integration of this struggling but potentially great company about as well as I could have hoped. This was an important milestone for the company as it represented the first large acquisition that we’ve completed. The good news is that all of the learnings that we gained in the earlier smaller acquisitions were just as applicable with this larger transaction. The only difference was the return on our efforts was far greater with Manugistics.

Today Manugistics is fully integrated with JDA. We have integrated sales, integrated consulting services, integrated customer support, integrated administration and facilities and we’ve made significant inroads along our path of product integration with five major integration points between formerly Manugistics and JDA products delivered already in 2007 and more plans for 2008. As a consequence of this integration going forward we will no longer be separately reporting Manugistics results. We are now one company. With this perspective I can say with confidence that JDA is now ready to undertake another acquisition and confirms that we are actively looking for strategic opportunities in the market.

So apart from increased scale what did Manugistics bring to JDA and how did it help improve our results so dramatically? When I look for reasons to explain this impressive progress the root cause I believe is our strengthening market position and competitiveness. In the past people viewed JDA as a smaller niche software company. Today they regard us as the world’s leading provider of supply chain solutions for retail, manufacturing and distribution. The larger horizontal software companies struggle to deliver the advanced capabilities that we relentlessly enhance and our other vertical competitors struggle to match our breadth and market reach. I believe that this strength in market position is helping us to improve our win rates and today I’m very satisfied with our current win rates. Another important factor in these uncertain times is that our solution offerings are now dominated by products that optimize our customers’ operating efficiencies. I believe that squeezing more out of existing business assets is going to be a common theme in 2008 as companies consider the economic uncertainty of the future. Furthermore our reputation as a company that delivers real results for our customers has solidified our market positioning as evidenced by our expanded win rate with new customers.

Speaking of the future we have some exciting plans for 2008 and I’d like to share a few of them with you today. With regard to our product offerings we plan to deliver some great new solution innovations into the market this year beginning as early as the first quarter. Two major releases this quarter that I’d like to highlight are first our release a brand new generation of assortment planning solutions. In an article released earlier this month by AMR they observed that as assortment planning becomes a central pivot point for an increasing number of activities retailers have stretched their boundaries of their legacy systems and are increasingly turning to software vendors for next generation applications. Well our next generation product hits the streets in about 60 days and we’re looking forward to taking on all existing competition with what we believe will be the market leading solution. This innovation was designed in close association with over 40 companies actively participating in our business requirements process.

Secondly I’d like to highlight an exciting innovation in our Space & Category Management suite of programs called [Planagram] Generator. Today JDA leads the global market for Space & Category Management software solutions. We believe that we’re about to expand that leadership substantially with a new product that will eliminate a huge portion of the workload being experienced by our customers through the use of this powerful new automated system. Many attempts have been made in the past to automate the production of store specific planagrams and most have met with only partial success at best. JDA has worked hand in hand with the market leaders in this discipline, our customers, and leveraging some exciting new innovations we’ve created the world’s first Planagram Generator that has the potential to really deliver the results people have been looking for. Once again this new product will hit the streets about 60 days from now. There are more exciting innovations that we’ll release throughout the year and I look forward to the impact that these new solutions will have upon our already strong sales performance.

A second major initiative for 2008 that I’d like to highlight on this call is the creation of our first Center of Excellence. As you may remember when we acquired Manugistics in July, 2006 we also acquired our first offshore facility in India. With 200 people working in product development in Hyderabad we decided to take our time to learn about this business model before changing anything. In particular we were concerned about the associated attrition which at the time of the acquisition was running at over 25%. 18 months later we very successfully delivered our first major product release with our 7.4 release in the second quarter of 2007 and we’ve reduced associated attrition to a very acceptable 13.5%. With this experience behind us we now feel ready to expand the role of this operation in our business. However we’re going to do more than just expand the percentage of product development associates to reside offshore. Instead we’re going to implement a change in our business model which we believe will fundamentally improve our competitiveness and profitability.

We plan to create a comprehensive Center of Excellence encompassing product development, customer implementation services, customer support services and internal administrative services. We believe that by doing so we can create an improved business model for JDA that will accelerate development of new solutions and new innovations through expanded development bandwidths, expand our consulting offerings in bandwidth further enhancing our reputation as best in class in solution delivery, accelerate the development of common business processes and tools shared between the major departments within JDA provide faster complex customer issue resolution, accelerate the development of training content for our customers, ourselves and our partners and finally accelerate the rates at which JDA will be able to take advantage of technology to optimize our internal operations.

Our goal is to achieve all of these business benefits without sacrificing our capability to work face to face with our customers most of whom are in the Americas and Europe. In other words the new Center of Excellence is designed to complement and enhance our existing onshore business model not replace it. We do plan through attrition and minor adjustments to reduce total onshore headcount as the Center of Excellence comes on stream during 2008 by about 50 people. From an overall financial impact perspective in 2008 the Center of Excellence will be a net-net cost to JDA as we ramp up resources in Hyderabad due to the overlap period designed to ensure a smooth transition. However we believe that the Center of Excellence will substantially lower our operating costs from 2009 onwards. So you need to consider 2008 as a year of modest investment designed to deliver a significantly improved operating model from 2009 onwards. Having said that overall we do still plan earnings growth in 2008 and I’ll go through those details in a few minutes.

In summary we’re going to be investing about $7.8 million more in 2008 than we did in our Hyderabad facility in 2007 and these funds are targeted at establishing our Center of Excellence and adding a net of about 232 additional people for this facility. It is this increased bandwidth that’s going to allow us to achieve all of the benefits I described earlier. I don’t want to go into details yet about the profitability impact of this investment in 2009 but I can say that we’ll be targeting improvements in EBITDA in the range of hundreds of basis points. This program represents the most significant initiative for 2008 until we find our next acquisition and we’ve already started. With this week we’ve opened our new office in Hyderabad which more than doubles our capacity and our hiring program is on track towards our 2008 goal in Hyderabad.

I’m very excited about the potential for the Center of Excellence not just to improve operating margins but also to expand our ability to grow and compete against other companies who already operate lower cost offshore centers. I believe that we will be able to expand our offerings to our customers, reduce the cost of ownership of our solutions and increase our competitiveness all of which can have a profound impact on our future growth potential.

Finally I’d like to discuss our financial projections for 2008. Despite uncertainties in the economy we remain cautiously optimistic about our prospects for 2008 and with that mindset we’ve prepared guidance ranges which we believe are realistic and achievable. First of all for software our range for 2008 is between $75 million and $85 million. Total revenues are between $382 million and $395 million and adjusted EBITDA we project to come in at between $90 and $93 million generating adjusted income of $49.5 million to $51 million and adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.45 a share. Once again this year we will only revise this guidance during the course of the year if we see the need to change the annual guidance. As you saw with the patent of software sales in 2007 it’s quite normal for our business to experience fluctuations from quarter to quarter so we will not be providing quarterly guidance and will once again remain focused on delivering year-over-year growth.

With that I’d like to open up the call for questions.

Question-And-Answer Session

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Andrey Glukhov from Breen Murray. Please go ahead.

Andrey Glukhov - Breen Murray, Carret

Hamish, I guess the first question on everybody’s mind is clearly sort of the state of the economy and the retailer’s willingness to spend money and you guys seemed to indicate that you are quite confident in the reining in the life of growth outlook. Can you give us a bit more granularity on what gives you confidence and what have you seen in your pipeline most recently? And since we are in the time when retailers are going through the 08 budgeting process what are you hearing from your customers?

Hamish N.J. Brewer

Well, let me speak first of all about what we’ve experienced in the last couple of quarters. Obviously since the third quarter of 2007 we’ve been keeping a pretty close eye on indications in our customer base that there could be cutbacks or constrained spending on projects and software, etcetera because that was obviously a factor. So far the experience that we’ve had is we had one deal in the third quarter of 2007 that I mentioned on the October earnings call which was reduced in size and the reason given was directly due to the fact that they were experiencing lower sales so you could attribute that to the economy. Then as far as the fourth quarter was concerned I believe we had three deals that we believe were impacted by the economy. Two of them were delayed and we’re not sure how long they’re going to be delayed for. And sort of an indeterminate period of delay there for two of them and then the third one was delayed for one quarter we believe until this first quarter as the company said they were going to have to do some re-budgeting. So when you put that in the context of I believe in the fourth quarter we did something like 72 new license deals I reiterate what I said in October that even though we are seeing some impact from the economy it still remains pretty limited in the overall context of the business that we’re doing and on top of that we have been polling our customers through our normal business development activities and the message we’re getting back from them is not that they are planning some massive cutback or withdrawal of capital spending. That’s why the words I used were we are cautiously optimistic. At this stage we don’t see any clear evidence that our prospects are changing dramatically and on the other hand what we do see is we continue to see a very strong pipeline of new business opportunities. So when I put those two things together I think that’s why we come to the position that we have on our guidance.

Andrey Glukhov - Breen Murray, Carret

And, Kris, two housekeeping questions, first of all I think that you mentioned that your bad debt provision increased about $1.3 million sequentially, if I understood you right. What’s the total amount of debt provision and can you comment on the magnitude of the increase?

Kristen L. Magnuson

We had a zero provision in the third quarter so we had $1.3 million in the fourth quarter that was the total provision for the fourth quarter. So it’s $2.9 million for the full year.

Andrey Glukhov - Breen Murray, Carret

And when you said that you plan for the operating expenses to increase 2 to 5% year-on-year in 08 is the investment in Hyderabad on top of that?

Kristen L. Magnuson

That is baked into that increase.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brad Reback, Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Brad Reback – CIBC World Markets Corp.

I know you’re not giving any quarterly guidance but could you maybe give us maybe some idea of the linearity around the incremental investment in India?

Kristen L. Magnuson

Yeah, it’ll be sort of upfront, more upfront because we are hiring on people aggressively in the first and second quarters in particular and then we will be offsetting some of those costs later in the year and those associates have been notified and there’ll be a period of double investment while we get the people trained up and hired and then you will see that investment come down later in the year.

Brad Reback – CIBC World Markets Corp.

And, Hamish, on the acquisition front have you seen a rationalization of pricing expectations out there?

Hamish N.J. Brewer

Somewhat yes. I think it’s definitely a better market if you’re a buyer right now than it was a year ago. I think that we’re reasonably optimistic that we’re going to get some realistic prices out there.

Brad Reback – CIBC World Markets Corp.

And, Kris, can you remind us how your debt facility works, what type of access to capital you have and what interest rate that might carry?

Kristen L. Magnuson

Our interest rate is LIBOR plus 225 and we have a $50 million revolver and then we also have a $75 million accordion feature on the debt facility. We could use whatever cash we have on hand plus the revolver and the accordion feature to do another acquisition without having to refinance.

Brad Reback – CIBC World Markets Corp.

Given that amount of flexibility and given the pressure the stock has been under, how do you come to the decision around capital allocation, potentially buying back stock versus keeping your powder dry for large deals?

Kristen L. Magnuson

I think we still think that when we want to build long term shareholder value that it’s better to keep our powder dry for acquisitions. We think there are a lot of opportunities out there and we saw a significant increase in the overall shareholder value that we created with the Manu acquisition and we’d like to continue to do that at this juncture.

Brad Reback – CIBC World Markets Corp.

Maybe one final update on the sales force; where that stands, where Tom’s reorganization has worked through there and do you feel you’re fully complete there or is always a work in progress?

Kristen L. Magnuson

I think as far as the major restructuring we’re through it. I think we’ll always be opportunistically hiring. We are trying to hire more presales people because our staff particularly in the Americas is really, really busy right now with opportunities but I think total sales headcount will increase modestly during 2008.

Operator

Our next question is from Alan Cooke, Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Alan Cooke – Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.

Digging into the Q4 numbers, I see there was strength in core JDA especially in Europe and some weakness in Manugistics again especially in Europe, could you dig into those line items, give us a little bit of clarification in why core JDA did so well in Europe and Manugistics was weaker?

Hamish N.J. Brewer

I don’t think there’s any major underlying trend that I can point to. I think that we believe that sales force over there in Europe is actively selling everything. Quite frankly they don’t go out and particularly choose to sell one product or another, they’re all commissioned and paid equally whether they sell a dollar of core JDA or Manugistics software. I think it’s just a matter of mix of the opportunities that they had in front of them at the time.

Kristen L. Magnuson

And for the full year JDA in Europe is up 59% and Manu is up 42%. So you can’t just look at it one quarter at a time.

Alan Cooke – Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.

And then with regards to the Center of Excellence and the impact on your cost line, where do you expect to see the largest impact as you go through the year?

Kristen L. Magnuson

In the services area and in the product development area we will see probably a little bit of increase in investment in the early part of the year and then savings later in the year.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alan Weinfeld with Henley & Co. Please go ahead.

Alan Weinfeld – Henley & Co., LLC

I was just wondering it seemed the last quarter was pretty strong and this one was again surprisingly strong and I know the stock market has let’s just say punished a lot of your customers whether you’re going to come out with tough results or not is anybody’s guess, you obviously know the consensus coming in here was $1.48 even though obviously some people had some lower investments, I know you’re investing money in India but are you really feel like something’s really holding you back in 2008 that we’re only going to see earnings growth of 5% here? I mean $1.40 to $1.45, if that’s all we’re going to get it’s just really hard to pound the table. Convince me. Why am I really going to get excited for the average investor?

Hamish N.J. Brewer

I think when we’re operating at a 24% operating margin like we talked about the company is – for a company of our size at $400 million, I think you have to accept that that’s a pretty good level of profitability. We are obviously giving up internally and targeting ourselves internally to achieve top line revenue growth that’s going to drive the maximum revenue and profitability that we can for the business but I think as I said before last year and today as well our goal here with providing you with guidance is to provide you with a set of numbers that we believe are realistic and achievable and so bearing in mind that we are facing some economic uncertainties right now we believe that this is the right level of guidance. I can’t tell you much more than that right now. We’ll have to see how the year pans out. If you find these numbers completely unexciting well I’m not sure there’s much I can say to really change your opinion on that. I think that the operating profits for the business are pretty good.

Alan Weinfeld – Henley & Co., LLC

You’ve talked a lot of your customers and you’ve seen a lot of your customers I assume at the Fashion Retail Federation, they really need your products and you’re coming out with two new product cycles here so would you – I mean I know you have no quarterly guidance but you would expect something greater than a 17 in the software license category for March holding all the margins or the I guess the $8 million – are these 232 people are they all new people and that’s really holding down the profitability next year? Or there are these 232 people that you’re just moving? I guess that and the license question for the first quarter.

Hamish N.J. Brewer

You’re right; we don’t give quarterly license guidance or any other quarterly guidance.

Alan Weinfeld – Henley & Co., LLC

But you felt your customers’ need for these two bang-up products, right?

Hamish N.J. Brewer

Yeah, but the fact is, Alan, you’ve seen the results of our last couple of quarters and I’m sure the need was the same then as well. So obviously we’re working hard to translate that meeting to as much revenue as we can and we’ll continue to do that in the first quarter. But the fact remains and our goal here is to try and set some realistic guidance that you can count on and that’s really what we’re focused on. As far as the 232 people is concerned those are 232 net new people in our Hyderabad facility. Like I said there is an offset to that that we planned in 2008 of approximately 50 people in onshore locations.

Alan Weinfeld – Henley & Co., LLC

Do you get the same cost four or five people work in India for one person that works in America?

Hamish N.J. Brewer

Yes, it’s about four to one.

Operator

Our next question comes from Richard Williams, Cross Research. Please go ahead.

Richard Williams – Cross Research

If you could give a little bit more color on the three deals that you mentioned. Any ideas size and also of segment within economic verticals?

Hamish N.J. Brewer

The one thing they did have in common is closely related to home so you know home and construction and that kind of thing which you can imagine is the sector that’s going to be most likely impacted by what we’ve seen going on with the mortgage crisis.

Richard Williams – Cross Research

And were they relatively large deals or smaller than normal?

Hamish N.J. Brewer

A mix of sizes.

Richard Williams – Cross Research

And are you seeing any kind of push back or indications from other customers that the economy is impacting their IT spending plans?

Hamish N.J. Brewer

No, those are the only ones that we have identified during the course of the fourth quarter. So like I say its three out of 75, three that were affected and 72 that were not. Overall while I can’t say there’s no impact it’s still pretty limited at this stage.

Operator

At this time there are no further questions. I will turn it back over to management for any closing remarks.

Hamish N.J. Brewer

Thank you very much for joining us on the call here today and look forward to talking with you again in April.

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