Smart Phone Wars: iPhone vs. Blackberry vs. ...Android?

The release of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone rocked the cellular industry last year, and some analysts are now asking if the pending release of Google’s (GOOG) Android cellular phone operating system may have a similar impact.

The answer: Not likely.

According to a March 17-24 ChangeWave survey of 3,597 consumers, the smart phone industry continues to transform into a two-horse race between Research In Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry and the Apple iPhone.

While RIM currently dominates smart phone sales among consumers, the Apple iPhone has had tremendous success and continues showing momentum in this market. Meanwhile, the longstanding woes of Palm (PALM) and its Treo are accelerating.

RIM’s On Top, But Apple Is Growing

RIM (42%; down 1-pt) maintains its towering lead in smart phone market share, even as number two Palm (16%; down 2-pts) is maintaining its two year losing streak. Palm has now lost market share in seven-consecutive ChangeWave surveys dating back to October 2006.

Now within striking distance of Palm, the Apple iPhone (9%) continues to exhibit strong growth in the smart phone market – jumping 3-points since our previous survey in January.

Consumer Satisfaction

If customer satisfaction is a good indicator of future growth, Apple occupies the sweet spot. An extraordinary four-in-five iPhone owners (79%) report they’re Very Satisfied with their iPhone – a significant lead over number two RIM (54%) and far ahead of all other major manufacturers.

In the chart above we see the percentages of respondents who say they are Very Satisfied with their current cell phone – broken out by manufacturer. We note that Palm (22%) again ranks at the bottom in terms of customer satisfaction.

Going Forward: iPhone Has Momentum

Among respondents planning to buy a new smart phone in the next 90 days, better than one-in-three (35%) say they’ll purchase an iPhone – a whopping 12-point jump since the previous ChangeWave survey in January 2008.

RIM (29%) comes in second – down 3-points from previously, while Palm (3%) is taking yet another big hit, falling 5-points.

The Apple uptick may be at least partially attributable to the recent flurry of announcements regarding the iPhone’s Software Development Kit. A total of 10% of respondents say this new development has made them More Likely to buy an iPhone in the future.

Mobile OS – The Androids Are Coming?

We also asked respondents which mobile operating system they’d like to have on the smart phone they plan on buying. As expected, the consumer market is dominated by the RIM OS and the Apple OS X.

Note that the Google Android OS isn’t being offered yet to the general public, and it’s still too early to gauge its full impact. However, the current survey begins to shed some initial light on the market potential for the Android.

While just 2% of respondents say they’re Very Likely to use the Android operating system, another 15% say they’re Somewhat Likely – indicating there is some consumer interest in the latest Google brainchild.

However, based upon the quickly evolving RIM vs. Apple competitive landscape – and the fact that both companies have high customer satisfaction ratings – the likelihood of the Google Android OS competing against either the Blackberry or the iPhone’s operating systems seems farfetched at this point.

Rather, the Android’s potential niche market would appear to lie within a handful of second tier smart phone players such as HTC. But with RIM and Apple sucking up all the oxygen in this extraordinarily competitive market, the current survey suggests that Google’s entry into the space will be anything but easy.

Service Providers: It’s a Two-Pony Contest

In addition to the RIM vs. Apple battle, there is also a two-horse race among cellular service providers – with Verizon (VZ) (31%; up 1-pt) and AT&T (T) (29%; up 1-pt) jockeying for the top spot in current market share.

Going forward, AT&T appears to be getting another bump-up based upon Apple’s recent flurry of well received announcements. When Apple planned buying goes up among consumers, so does AT&T by virtue of their exclusive carrier agreement with Apple.

Thus, among respondents who plan to switch carriers over the next six months, nearly three-in-ten (28%) say they’ll go with AT&T – a 3-pt increase from January. Verizon (22%) is registering a 1-pt uptick in planned buying.

As the smart phone wars rage on, one thing has become eminently clear: Consumers are in love with fruit flavors – especially Apples and Blackberries.

Paul Carton co-wrote this article.

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This article summarizes the results of a recent ChangeWave Alliance survey. The Alliance is a research network of 15,000 business, technology and medical professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the front line of technological change. For more info on ChangeWave, or to sign up for real-time alerts email on the hottest technologies and companies, click here.

Comments

[Rob L]

I don't think the average person is going to care at all about Android. Most people are going to buy the phone they like with whatever software is already loaded. Google getting in on the hardware side would be a different story, but for just a software Android's success will depend on what the hardware manufacturers think.

[lucas]

I love my iPhone. Everything is perfection. Only a few minor things that bothers and hopefully will be fixed by APPL soon. 1. Slow connection speed for AT&T Edge Network (rumored 2nd Gen iPhone with 3G should take care of that) 2. No Java support. Besides from that, APPL has me totally sold.

[e chang]

I agree with Rob. Apple and RIMM are proprietary. If Google does a good job with Android and plays its hand right, all the phone makers like Nokia, Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson, Motorola, etc. may drift towards using Android, making it the standard platform for smart phones outside of RIMM and Apple.

[samij]

these results don't do any good for analysing smart phone business as investment opportunity. smart phones, as cell phones in general, are a global business. while the us is a large market, less than 8% of cell phones are sold there. 92% is sold outside the us. even 10% market share change in the us would affect less than 1% on any manufacturers world wide market share. focusing on that is next to meaningless.

as for smart phones, the us market is one of the most underdeveloped markets. even the hugely hyped iphone has failed to make impact outside the us, because the smart phones available elsewhere are some 5 years ahead.

[KenC]

@samij, Generalising about the cellphone market and applying it to smartphones is useless. That's why the Changewave survey didn't do it. And, as you say, "focusing on [the whole cellphone market] is meaningless", which is exactly what you did. Meaningless.

As for smartphones, if you mean to say that the iPhone which is only officially available in a handful of countries "has failed to make impact outside of the us", clearly you are on drugs. People are buying the phone, though unofficially supported, in droves. And, can you tell us which smart phones available elsewhere are "5 years ahead"? You mean the Nokia "tube"?

As for e chang's comment on Android, yes, it's a no-brainer. If Android is any good, mfrs will be attracted. I mean it's FREE! No Win Mobile tax. However, the key for mfrs is whether Android can differentiate their product offerings. If they cannot, then Android will only drive their phones to commodity status.

[GTS]

I think most smart phones are a big waste of time and money. Most people could easily do without a cell phone. "The things you own end up owning you." TD

[seeksome]

AAPL is the best of BREED period.Get an iPhone here:
seeksomething.com

[akaLefty]

The major phone vendors are weighing in--and they're coming down on the side of, not Android, but mainstream Linux-based development. The LiMo Foundation has the support of Samsung, Motorola, LG as well as a number of major carriers. They were also showing 18 actual, shipping or soon-to-be-shipping, phones running LiMo software.

[Davewrite]

The iPhone is a MOBILE COMPUTER that can also make phone calls. Some other so called 'smart-phones' can't even be hooked up to a computer.

It took something like 20 years to create OsX (staring as Next Os), a modified version runs the iPhone. Many don't get how sophisticated Unix based OsX is. Microsoft can't match it, doubtful if any PHONE maker can do so. That's why so far every "iphone" killer has fallen flat on its face. Apple will fix whatever iPhone shortcomings there is like 3G, GPS, no sweat just a matter of time but their competitors will never get OsX.

With iPhone software 2.0 and SDK apps. coming in June the whole game is going to change. The iPhone and future Apple iDevices are going dominate this whole new 'mobile computing' category, nobody is going to come close. As John Doerr Google and Amazon financier said it's whole 'new platform' and he added 'bigger than the PC'. John Doerr biggest tech financier is so sure of this he's setting up a 100 m fund to finance iPhone application development.

I won Google stock but my bets still with iPhone vs. Android.

[Kontra]

I examined 10 factors that put Apple in an unassailable position in the mobile platform wars and reviewed the weaknesses of iPhone competitors in:

Who can beat iPhone 2.0?
counternotions.com/2008/03/10/iphone2-co... /

[Barbarian]

"I think most smart phones are a big waste of time and money. Most "people could easily do without a cell phone. "The things you own end up" "owning you." TD"


You sound like my dead g-mother..
I could not do business without my phone so I think for me it's indispensable... but I guarantee you it doesn't own me

[Viewfar]

Before Blackberry, After Blackberry, Before i-Phone, after i-Phone. You can clearly see that there are differences in the market and how the market has evolved with these market changing products. Android is such a game changer. i-Phone restricts users to AT&T, Blackberry forces you to use its UI. Android will change both of these factors i.e. take your phone to any network and expect to work like it always did with all features and software customized to your needs.

[tom1234]

everything you say is true ---but time and evolution of the new developements will shine (i think ) on the iphone---in these articles we must also discuss the pipe line of all the competitors and then decide which products will lead the pack---

[Ken Singh]

WARNING: RIMM Management misleading Investors and keeping them in the dark.

INDIA is ready to shut down PUSH EMAIL SCAM= ANANTIONAL SECURITY THREAT ON THE PLANET....all nation to follow

(((ENRON SCAM BUBBLE REPEAT)))


Apr 14 09:07 AM
Business pacts of mobile cos, RIM under DoT lens
NEW DELHI & KOLKATA: The department of telecom (DoT) has put commercial arrangements between Canada’s Research In Motion (RIM) and providers of the BlackBerry service in India such as Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Essar, BPL and Reliance Communications under the scanner.

ET has learnt that the DoT and national security/intelligence agencies are examining why service providers who partner RIM here only have a ‘routing arrangement’ and not a ‘hosting arrangement’ as required under Indian law.

A routing agreement allows communications between BlackBerry owners in India to be hosted on servers outside, but under a hosting agreement, the same data must reside on servers belonging to Indian BlackBerry service providers like Vodafone and Airtel.

Top sources told ET that the DoT decided to examine the commercial agreements between telcos and RIM after Thursday’s meeting between representatives from Indian telcos, RIM executives, security agencies, and department officials.

The DoT wants to examine if the new telecom guidelines unveiled last year has been incorporated into these agreements. Under Indian regulations, which are in force since last year, “the control of remote access, i.e., activation, transfer of data, termination etc., shall be within the country and not at a remote location, abroad.”

Also, ‘the government agency should be given all support to record the transactions for online monitoring’. Additionally, DoT has also pointed out that Indian regulations clearly state that ‘suitable technical device should be made available at Indian end to the designated security agency/licensor for monitoring purposes’, government sources said.

“If the commercial agreements do not adhere to these provisions, they are in violation of Indian rules,” government sources added. During Thursday’s meet, RIM executives said that they did not offer encryption keys to any governments worldwide. They also added that they did not have any specific solutions as demanded by Indian intelligence agencies.

The DoT, in its response said that BlackBerry connections with most corporates bypassed the networks of mobile operator here. This is because, RIM has installed its servers in the offices of most companies who use its services. The data between BlackBerry users is therefore directly transferred between the servers in the corporate offices in India to servers housed in Canada. The DoT then pointed out that this was outside the Indian telecom licence guidelines.

“The government is looking into commercial agreements between telcos and RIM to establish the fact that these are in violation of Indian licence guidelines,” top sources close to the development added. “With not much progress on the interception issues, the DoT is trying to unravel the security implications of the commercial arrangements between RIM and BlackBerry service providers in India,” added another senior government official familiar with the developments.

During the meet, the DoT also told RIM that it was miffed that the communications between BlackBerry users in India are open to surveillance by US and Canadian enforcement agencies, while the same data is inaccessible to national security agencies.

“The DoT is of the view that RIM’s BlackBerry service meets meet the provisions of the US CALEA (Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act, 1994) regulations and therefore BlackBerry data traffic originating on Indian mobile networks can be tracked electronically by CALEA sleuths in the Federal Communications Commission (FCC),” government sources said.
The DoT has asked that this provision enjoyed by US government be extended to Indian intelligence operators too,” they added. But Indian telcos do not share the DoT view. Executives working with Indian telcos that offer BlackBerry services here reiterated that all communications between BlackBerry users pass through their mobile network.

“The entire email operation between BlackBerry users involves three elements, the mobile network, a push BlackBerry POP service and the mail server. All three elements come into play in any email exchange between BlackBerry users, our mobile networks are not bypassed,“ explained a senior industry official.

[Ken Singh]

YO ALL ARE WARNED:

RIMM Management is bunch of biggest crooks . China pump & dump scam continued for 18 months but no BBB was sold in CHINA till Feb29, 2008

ASK these crooks to disclose Sub numbers by Country

Now INDIA is ready to shut them down and these Crooks keep Investors in the dark

THIS SCAM IS GOING BUST........

ALL NATIONS RISE................TO ELIMINATE BB PARASITES...

NEW DELHI & KOLKATA: The department of telecom (DoT) has put commercial arrangements between Canada’s Research In Motion (RIM) and providers of the BlackBerry service in India such as Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Essar, BPL and Reliance Communications under the scanner.

ET has learnt that the DoT and national security/intelligence agencies are examining why service providers who partner RIM here only have a ‘routing arrangement’ and not a ‘hosting arrangement’ as required under Indian law.

A routing agreement allows communications between BlackBerry owners in India to be hosted on servers outside, but under a hosting agreement, the same data must reside on servers belonging to Indian BlackBerry service providers like Vodafone and Airtel.

Top sources told ET that the DoT decided to examine the commercial agreements between telcos and RIM after Thursday’s meeting between representatives from Indian telcos, RIM executives, security agencies, and department officials.

The DoT wants to examine if the new telecom guidelines unveiled last year has been incorporated into these agreements. Under Indian regulations, which are in force since last year, “the control of remote access, i.e., activation, transfer of data, termination etc., shall be within the country and not at a remote location, abroad.”
economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News_B...

[J Lazerow]

Android is a non starter. This falls into the same category as Linux for computers. Don't believe for a second it will have much impact. Remember who the average cell phone purchaser is.

[J Lazerow]

and Ken Singh is the man!

[DickM]

For what its worth, the Nokia CEO recently was quoted saying "I am scared to death of the iPhone". (late Jan '08).

Regarding Android. as anybody contemplated how good Android will be in emulating what OSX and a real browser does? And how fast? Like, how good is the rendering of text to any point size you want? And, what good is Android on a tiny screen, particularly if you can't read it anyway? What is Android's equivalent of Quartz? (Mac people will understand what Quartz does for precision graphics)

[Michael]

This is the best comment i have seen on this topic by far. It has been my belief also. the iPhone revolutionized handheld computing (shall I say Palm Computing) in a way Newton wanted to but never succeeded. The phone is a throw in. And in a Wireless VOIP world, who will care what the protocol is. you will want to have the computer though.

This is also a big reason for the push of Safari onto windows. With Itunes and Safari, Apple is creating the unified compute interface of the future. that is why you have them both on the iPhone as well.


On Apr 14 04:04 AM Davewrite wrote:

> The iPhone is a MOBILE COMPUTER that can also make phone calls. Some
> other so called 'smart-phones' can't even be hooked up to a computer.
>
>
> It took something like 20 years to create OsX (staring as Next Os),
> a modified version runs the iPhone. Many don't get how sophisticated
> Unix based OsX is. Microsoft can't match it, doubtful if any PHONE
> maker can do so. That's why so far every "iphone" killer has fallen
> flat on its face. Apple will fix whatever iPhone shortcomings there
> is like 3G, GPS, no sweat just a matter of time but their competitors
> will never get OsX.
>
> With iPhone software 2.0 and SDK apps. coming in June the whole game
> is going to change. The iPhone and future Apple iDevices are going
> dominate this whole new 'mobile computing' category, nobody is going
> to come close. As John Doerr Google and Amazon financier said it's
> whole 'new platform' and he added 'bigger than the PC'. John Doerr
> biggest tech financier is so sure of this he's setting up a 100 m
> fund to finance iPhone application development.
>
> I won Google stock but my bets still with iPhone vs. Android.
>

[contreras]

Got to agree with Samij. Unfortunately, it seems nobody cares about the global numbers. Just consider that Nokia sells 1+ million Smartphones every week. Smartphones with free applications, GPS, HSDPA, DVB-H, MMS (?), GSM in 4 bands, media center functionality... even my phone is currently holding a web page (as a server...)

But I think this kind of analysis is good at some extent, as it works enough for playing with APPL stocks, which is traded in the US.

[Ken Singh]

RIMM MANAGEMENT FAILED TO WARN INVESTORS ON THIS MAJOR NEGATIVE TO ITS BUSINESS MODEL:

INDIA BANS BLACKBERRY TO BLACKBERRY PUSH EAMIL/SMS SERVICE

RIMM MANAGEMENT =BUNCH OF CROOKS

Government asks operators to restrict 'certain' BlackBerry services

Wednesday, 16 April , 2008, 18:56

New Delhi: The Home Ministry has asked telecom operators not to offer “certain” BlackBerry services until a proper monitoring system is put in place, said Minister of State for Home Affairs Sriprakash Jaiswal.


“The government has issued instructions to all mobile service providers, inter alia asking them not to connect or provide/run certain BlackBerry services unless the required monitoring systems are in place,” Jaiswal said, even as he highlighted that it has not imposed restrictions on the use of BlackBerry. The Minister was answering a query in the Lok Sabha.

For more news, analysis click here>> | For more Science and Medicine news click here >>

By “certain" services the government meant that the four service providers currently offering BlackBerry services in India - Airtel, Vodafone, BPL and Reliance Communications - should temporarily stop the services between one BlackBerry to another. This is because calls and e-mails exchanged within BlackBerry handsets cannot be intercepted as the servers are based in Canada.

India has asked Research in Motion (RIM), the licensor of BlackBerry, which has over 12 million users globally, to route all its calls and e-mails through servers based in India to allow security agencies to read them as it fears its usage by terrorist outfits.

RIM officials are believed to have sought time till the end of the month to explain their position and address the issues voiced by the government.

India has also warned of “strict action” if RIM fails to come out with a viable solution to such a serious issue, telecom ministry sources said.

BlackBerry services were introduced in India in October 2004. The services came under the government's scanner last year when an application by Tata Teleservices to launch a similar service was rejected over security concerns.

[Ken Singh]

RIMM SCAM CONTINUES:

India puts a ban on certain Blackberry services
Blackberry, Mobile Service Providers, Research in Motion April 20th, 2008

India puts a ban on certain Blackberry services

The Indian government has now directed the telecom companies in the market to block certain services provided to the users of Blackberry devices.

This ban would remain in place till the service providers put up the requisite monitoring systems in place.

The government had earlier raised its objection to the RIM Blackberry services as they said that some of the services could not be monitored and hence were a security concern.

Indian government representative Jyotiraditya Scindia said in a statement: “Instructions have been issued to all mobile service providers, inter alia, asking them not to connect or provide/run certain BlackBerry services unless the required monitoring systems are in place.”

Cellular Operators Association of India Director General T.V. Ramachandran responded on this directive: “We will abide by whatever the government requires. We have no issue.”
sifybroadband.techwhack.com/986-blackber...

[frenchrulz]

Govt, BlackBerry provider resolve security issues

The future of BlackBerry seems to be on track in India.

Sources have told NDTV that Canada's Research in Motion (RIM), which provides the service, has agreed to the government's security demands.

RIM will install a system to let the government check the incoming and outgoing mails from BlackBerry -enabled phones.

The government and RIM will meet on Tuesday to work out the modalities.

The Department of Telecom has been locked in talks with RIM to find a solution ever since it denied Tata Teleservices a permission to launch BlackBerry services.


www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx...