The release of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone rocked the cellular industry last year, and some analysts are now asking if the pending release of Google’s (GOOG) Android cellular phone operating system may have a similar impact.
The answer: Not likely.
According to a March 17-24 ChangeWave survey of 3,597 consumers, the smart phone industry continues to transform into a two-horse race between Research In Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry and the Apple iPhone.
While RIM currently dominates smart phone sales among consumers, the Apple iPhone has had tremendous success and continues showing momentum in this market. Meanwhile, the longstanding woes of Palm (PALM) and its Treo are accelerating.
RIM’s On Top, But Apple Is Growing
RIM (42%; down 1-pt) maintains its towering lead in smart phone market share, even as number two Palm (16%; down 2-pts) is maintaining its two year losing streak. Palm has now lost market share in seven-consecutive ChangeWave surveys dating back to October 2006.
Now within striking distance of Palm, the Apple iPhone (9%) continues to exhibit strong growth in the smart phone market – jumping 3-points since our previous survey in January.
Consumer Satisfaction
If customer satisfaction is a good indicator of future growth, Apple occupies the sweet spot. An extraordinary four-in-five iPhone owners (79%) report they’re Very Satisfied with their iPhone – a significant lead over number two RIM (54%) and far ahead of all other major manufacturers.
In the chart above we see the percentages of respondents who say they are Very Satisfied with their current cell phone – broken out by manufacturer. We note that Palm (22%) again ranks at the bottom in terms of customer satisfaction.
Going Forward: iPhone Has Momentum
Among respondents planning to buy a new smart phone in the next 90 days, better than one-in-three (35%) say they’ll purchase an iPhone – a whopping 12-point jump since the previous ChangeWave survey in January 2008.
RIM (29%) comes in second – down 3-points from previously, while Palm (3%) is taking yet another big hit, falling 5-points.
The Apple uptick may be at least partially attributable to the recent flurry of announcements regarding the iPhone’s Software Development Kit. A total of 10% of respondents say this new development has made them More Likely to buy an iPhone in the future.
Mobile OS – The Androids Are Coming?
We also asked respondents which mobile operating system they’d like to have on the smart phone they plan on buying. As expected, the consumer market is dominated by the RIM OS and the Apple OS X.
Note that the Google Android OS isn’t being offered yet to the general public, and it’s still too early to gauge its full impact. However, the current survey begins to shed some initial light on the market potential for the Android.
While just 2% of respondents say they’re Very Likely to use the Android operating system, another 15% say they’re Somewhat Likely – indicating there is some consumer interest in the latest Google brainchild.
However, based upon the quickly evolving RIM vs. Apple competitive landscape – and the fact that both companies have high customer satisfaction ratings – the likelihood of the Google Android OS competing against either the Blackberry or the iPhone’s operating systems seems farfetched at this point.
Rather, the Android’s potential niche market would appear to lie within a handful of second tier smart phone players such as HTC. But with RIM and Apple sucking up all the oxygen in this extraordinarily competitive market, the current survey suggests that Google’s entry into the space will be anything but easy.
Service Providers: It’s a Two-Pony Contest
In addition to the RIM vs. Apple battle, there is also a two-horse race among cellular service providers – with Verizon (VZ) (31%; up 1-pt) and AT&T (T) (29%; up 1-pt) jockeying for the top spot in current market share.
Going forward, AT&T appears to be getting another bump-up based upon Apple’s recent flurry of well received announcements. When Apple planned buying goes up among consumers, so does AT&T by virtue of their exclusive carrier agreement with Apple.
Thus, among respondents who plan to switch carriers over the next six months, nearly three-in-ten (28%) say they’ll go with AT&T – a 3-pt increase from January. Verizon (22%) is registering a 1-pt uptick in planned buying.
As the smart phone wars rage on, one thing has become eminently clear: Consumers are in love with fruit flavors – especially Apples and Blackberries.
Paul Carton co-wrote this article.
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This article summarizes the results of a recent ChangeWave Alliance survey. The Alliance is a research network of 15,000 business, technology and medical professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the front line of technological change. For more info on ChangeWave, or to sign up for real-time alerts email on the hottest technologies and companies, click here.
