Visa and Mastercard: The Mortgage Brokers of the Credit Card Industry 111 comments
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There is definitely a shift from cash to credit cards worldwide, just as there was a shift from renting to home ownership based on the wide availability of mortgages, but is only a matter of time before this comes to a screeching halt.
Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) get paid a fee which is equal to a percentage of each transaction, and have no credit risk. Mortgage brokers have no direct credit risk either and they get an upfront fee when the transaction closes. If a borrower defaults, mortgage brokers do not lose a penny. The losers are those who bought the securitized mortgages. Mortgage brokers were doing great until borrowers began to default. The rating agencies downgraded the debt, and now, it is virtually impossible to securitize pools of mortgages. There are still plenty of houses for sale, but the number of transactions has plummeted, and the unemployment rate among mortgage brokers has skyrocketed.
Credit card debt is securitized just like mortgages, sliced into tranches, rated by agencies and sold to investors. At least mortgages are backed by assets like homes; credit cards are only backed by a borrower's promise of repayment. Credit card issuers are beginning to see a significant jump in defaults and late payments. Rating agencies, known for missing trends until it is too late, are even starting to catch on. With soaring credit risk, debt will be downgraded, and as with mortgages, the market for securitization will freeze up.
- There are a few other issues contributing to the negative trends for the credit card industry: Retailers are getting increasingly vocal against the interchange fees and now being debated is the Consumer Bill of Rights
- The banks that issue the debt are having their own capital problems
- U.S. retail growth has stalled, and is now having an effect on global growth
- Consumer sentiment is at a 26 year low
- Inflation is curbing spending
- Unemployment rate is trending up, more job layoffs on the horizon
- Home prices are dropping
- Tightening loan standards
- Late loan payments on credit cards is highest since 1992
- Discover survey says consumers plan cutbacks
- Consumer borrowing is slowing
So why are MasterCard and Visa trading near historical highs?
Here are a few things I have come up with:
- Momentum traders have piled on (a fickle group)
- High short interest in MasterCard; As a recent IPO, Visa can't be shorted yet, so MasterCard may be a Visa hedge
- Q1 earnings should be solid (but I maintain that guidance will be weak)
Disclosure: none
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This article has 111 comments:
1. Keep all records of my transactions...you dont have to save reciepts of all the expenses as you would if you used cash. I did my taxes and used my online debit/credit card to figure out all my expenses.
2. I get free sky miles when i use the credit card/ debit card
3. My wallet does not feel bulky with all the bills.
4. You can purchase or pay for most of bills online....which require a credit or debit card.
5. All the change you recieve will not wiegh you pockets down
Credit cards and debit cards are essential to everyday life, no matter how badd the economy or unemloyment are. The only potential risk or downside is if there is regulation on number of time you can use your credit cards. And i dont see that happening.
I see the olympics as a big opportunity for visa to take china and asia by storm, which will likely increase the number of transaction by at least 20-25% in the next 5 year.
As far as the market cap:
mastercard---- 25% of market------market cap of 30 billion
visa----------- 60% of market------market cap of 54 billion
shares of mastercard continues to rise and has not slowed down, and I predict there market cap will be close to 45+ billion in several years....
I predict visa's market cap will be 125+ bilion in 1-2 years with shares somewhere between $175.00- $200.00.
Buy VISA----Life takes Visa and so should you.
Thx jegan...
Who are you Adesai? Why are you always playing devil's advocate here? What is your connection to Sean and Wez and Joanne?
There is something entirely out of line happening on this site- I am beginning to think that the SEC should probably be taking a closer look at the posters on this site.
I am an investor in Visa and am DEEPLY concerned about the dissemination of information taking place on this website (Seeking Alpha). I am going to take a moment to explain the ramifications of the bias slant that this site is taking as opposed to verses that of a yahoo or google finance.
We all know that the posts on Yahoo and Google are mainly children and know better than to take such nonsense seriously. Here is where the problem begins to differ. Seeking Alpha 'articles' are actually appearing on news feeds at major online brokerage such as Etrade. Brokerage customers of Etrade may mistake such articles as legitimate news when in fact no legitimate news organization would allow people to anonymously self-post 'slam' pieces.
My name is Jonathan - and I can be reached at 212-709-8276- I'm here in NYC and work on Wall St. I am going to be talking to Etrade, Seeking Alpha, and if necessary the regulators about what is going on here. If you have information on the posters of these articles I need you to contact me immediately as I smell a fish.
For those of you that think this is a joke- it is not- this is VERY serious stuff. A significant reason for the Bear Sterns meltdown was people that had a short interest. The SEC is now investigated firms and individuals that shorted Lehman as well.
I have no problem with people writing negative articles about a stock. I do, however, draw the line when those articles appear on major brokerage news feeds as legitimate and newsworthy as anonymous posts. Current market conditions dictate that perception is very important and making statements anonymously that Visa is "The mortgage broker of the credit card industry' will influence people to sell the stock. That is fine- but without identifying yourself - and your level of experience as a basis for making such a claim- and your relationship (if any) to a Finra/NYSE firm, or whether or not you have a postion in the stock itself- you are doing a disservice to the investing public. Furthermore, your actions and those of your Seeking Alpha cohorts are, in my opinion, unethical, and possibly illegal.
As stated earlier- please contact me if you have more information on the individuals posting on this site about V.
Jonathan
Ok, now reality. JPM overpaid for Bear, and they did it to get nice deals at the NY fed desk, when they need to bring some used car deeds in exchange for Treasuries. Bear's business is finished. No mortgages will be collateralized. Your bluster is a disservice to investors. Sean's article is helpful. He is correct and stated his reasons. If you disagree, then convince me otherwise. The SEC is more concerned with bucket shop operators like you than Seeking Alpha bloggers. You have other people's retirement accounts, Seeking Alpha only has the weight of its bloggers opinions. Go chase momentum with other people's money and convince yourself that you are not a lemming, but an investor.
As stated before- if anyone knows the identity of the authors of these articles- let me know.
What is your interest in V- are you an investor? Are you in the business? Why the personal attack?
Why is it whenever someone is gettting close to the truth on this site- someone like you or Wez starts trying to discredit people?
Are you actually using different handles? Are you Wez?
If you are going to step up and start making accusations then why don't you tell us who you are and where you work and what you do and what you have at stake in this company.
I am an investor- have a few thousand shares- and trade a few thousand more daily- I have something at stake- what do you have at stake other than coming to the rescue of your boyfriend?
thanks! Joey
On Apr 14 12:41 AM buyv wrote:
> FOR CONCERNED INVESTORS-
>
> I am an investor in Visa and am DEEPLY concerned about the dissemination
> of information taking place on this website (Seeking Alpha). I am
> going to take a moment to explain the ramifications of the bias slant
> that this site is taking as opposed to verses that of a yahoo or
> google finance.
>
> We all know that the posts on Yahoo and Google are mainly children
> and know better than to take such nonsense seriously. Here is where
> the problem begins to differ. Seeking Alpha 'articles' are actually
> appearing on news feeds at major online brokerage such as Etrade.
> Brokerage customers of Etrade may mistake such articles as legitimate
> news when in fact no legitimate news organization would allow people
> to anonymously self-post 'slam' pieces.
>
> My name is Jonathan - and I can be reached at 212-709-8276- I'm here
> in NYC and work on Wall St. I am going to be talking to Etrade, Seeking
> Alpha, and if necessary the regulators about what is going on here.
> If you have information on the posters of these articles I need you
> to contact me immediately as I smell a fish.
>
> For those of you that think this is a joke- it is not- this is VERY
> serious stuff. A significant reason for the Bear Sterns meltdown
> was people that had a short interest. The SEC is now investigated
> firms and individuals that shorted Lehman as well.
>
> I have no problem with people writing negative articles about a stock.
> I do, however, draw the line when those articles appear on major
> brokerage news feeds as legitimate and newsworthy as anonymous posts.
> Current market conditions dictate that perception is very important
> and making statements anonymously that Visa is "The mortgage broker
> of the credit card industry' will influence people to sell the stock.
> That is fine- but without identifying yourself - and your level of
> experience as a basis for making such a claim- and your relationship
> (if any) to a Finra/NYSE firm, or whether or not you have a postion
> in the stock itself- you are doing a disservice to the investing
> public. Furthermore, your actions and those of your Seeking Alpha
> cohorts are, in my opinion, unethical, and possibly illegal.
>
> As stated earlier- please contact me if you have more information
> on the individuals posting on this site about V.
>
> Jonathan
Why don't you useless prognosticators find another stock to pound, and get off V ? Must you "financial writers" always have a herd mentality ? Who needs any of you ?
V, (Trade) has been initiated by Keefe Bruyette as a outperform at 80.0.
Visa Started At Outperform By Keefe, Bruyette & Woods >V
Funny, the analysts continue to go long on this stock- and yet total neophytes continue to pound it.
As far as the guy that asked about day trading- I do not give investment advice- but wish you the best of luck.
Understandable. thanks!
On Apr 14 08:31 AM buyv wrote:
> Another Legitimate Source: Briefing.com
>
>
> V, (Trade) has been initiated by Keefe Bruyette as a outperform at
> 80.0.
>
>
> Visa Started At Outperform By Keefe, Bruyette & Woods >V
>
> Funny, the analysts continue to go long on this stock- and yet total
> neophytes continue to pound it.
>
> As far as the guy that asked about day trading- I do not give investment
> advice- but wish you the best of luck.
V, (Trade) has been initiated by Cowen & Co as a outperform.
I am a MD (medical doctor) who has about 5,500+ shares in V. I have been in the stock market for about 8 years ON and OFF. This is the largest investment i have made into a particular stock and i want to make sure that I hear both sides of the story- as i do not want to falter. Although positive criticism is good I would like to hear the downside to a stock to keep me on my toes.
I do believe this is a good stock with good brand name recognition- and huge potential for growth... hence the reason for the large investement in this stock. So I do have a vested interest in this stock. Do i believe that there has been too many shares issued--YES. Do I believe that this poses a risk--YES. Do i believe this stock may hit $150+ -- YES. Do i know everthing about the stock market and this stock--NO. Hence the reason why I am on this site writing and reading all the blogs.
I agree with the point of view of Adesai and the risks are disclosed in V's prospectus. I disagree with the emphasis on some of the points in the author's article. But it is not misleading. If there is a problem, it would be with the "talking heads" on CNBC, FBN, etc.
My other disclosure---I bought V in the offering, the 1st time I wanted and was allowed to participate in an IPO. Unlike the good doctor, I could only get a few shares.
cool buddy. cool down.
i am a huge MA and V fan.
MA they told it is damn expensive when it was 75. they told it is super expensive when it was 120 and very very expensive at 160. Then MA came and blew the brains out with their earnings and went to 190.
Then the daytraders abused MA like crazy making sure it never went up even after smash and burn earnings last qtr. Then V ipo came and everybody realised MA is cheap and MA climbed up.
Same with V. I just spent 1585 dollars fixing my car and guess what I used V. I dont have cash to pay that much in my wallet. As simple as that. I filled my tank. I used MA. My MA card gives more cashback on gas filings.
I would suggest loading up on V May 75 calls just before earnings and MA 240 to 250 calls just before earnings.
And meanwhile buyv/jonathan, you got to cool down. The more -ve news on MA and V, the better. Because fools wont buy these solid companies after reading these kind of factless articles and then MA and V will rocket up as usual.
And I want to add fslr and pcln to make it awesome four. And also now is the time to load up RIMM. A > 100% growth company deserves much better forward p/e rather than the present 25.
I think you got it wrong. V can be shorted and I have shorted it like 2 weeks after ipo. Of late, I dont think anybody dare short V including myself.
Note that although I like MA and V, I never fight the market. Both are my core holdings but I also trade them based on market movements.
Also I am bearish on Goog, Aapl, spwr.
At one time I was actually impressed with some of the commentaries from Trading Alpha. All of the good will dissipated as I continued to read one slam of V after another, mostly by people that chose to post anonymously. Most of you know why this represents a problem, but for those of you that think I am overreacting I will share one last opinion with you; mine. New investors see ‘reports’ such as those generated by Trading Alpha on their online brokerage news feeds and assume that the reports are reputable. As such, decisions are influenced in part by such commentary. Trading Alpha, unlike Yahoo or Google Finance comes in as a ‘news feed’. I am in favor of free speech and free opinions. What I am not in favor of are slam pieces that could influence investors by people that fail to disclose what education, experience, or basis they have for making such opinions, good or bad. Furthermore, anyone conducting an analysis of a stock (however crude) should disclose whether they are long or short, have a position or not, or work for someone that has taken a position. That is my concern. Perhaps I am overreacting, but in light of the fact that severe damage has been done to several firms on Wall Street by dissemination of misinformation I am hyper-alert. Yes, Bear dug their own grave but they didn’t need someone to push them in it. In the post 9/11 environment it is not a good idea to tell people that an airport might be bombed either. Having provided my two cents- I am not going to waste any more time on this site as I feel it is lacking in credibility. I will, however, be glad to come back and remind the naysayers that they were wrong all along- when the stock hits $75. Good luck for those of you taking advice or lending credence to anything the ‘authors’ of these articles have to say.
Here are three REPUTABLE Analyst opinions- all within the last few days-
Cowen & Co initiates Outperform. Cowen initiates V with an Outperform saying they expect the co to grow net revenues and EPS by at least 7%-8% and 20%+ during the next 2-3 years while gradually expanding its ROIC. The firm says the co's growth prospects as well as its attractive business model stand out among its business services peers. During the next 3-5 years, they expect Visa to benefit from strong ongoing secular growth trends in the payments sector as expanding usage of electronic forms of payments (credit and debit cards) continues to displace cash and checks.
Visa Started At Outperform By Keefe, Bruyette & Woods >V Dow Jones Newswires
Visa Started At Buy By Stifel Nicolaus >V Dow Jones Newswires
Last – and this should be obvious to those of you reading this post- the authors and their ‘friends’ have nothing at stake here which supports my argument. Of course they have no concern about any potential harm they may do to the investing public by spreading distortion- as they have nothing to lose.
Rember, do your homework- read the prospectus- learn about the company- and I am confident that if you are a V investor, you will do well short and long term.
99% of the 'writers' posting articles here are financial neophytes at best. Seekingalpha writers, if you are compelled to spew your largely worthless stock opinions, please direct them at your comatose grandmother or your dog (or both). Sean, I read your bio. I guess you must have been quite the heavy hitter in the M&A world (the last time I checked, the word acquisitions had a 'C' in it). I may not be an Einstein, but I can correctly spell my profession.
i think we are all missing the point. we need more people who can bash ma and v.
2 big advantages of this.
1. loading up on calls slightly out of money before earnings and making a ton once earnings have come. doing this for past 2 earnings in ma and raking in the moolah
2. the calls stay cheap since ma and v are bashed.
yeah, i am not even talking about how ma and v will perform. they will blast the earnings. rimm, ma, fslr, pcln have been doing this again and again and again and i am tired of reading arguments on the contrary. now v joins the elite list.
but meanwhile we need more people bashing ma, fslr, pcln and v so that we can bulk up on stock and bulk up on calls.
here is a line for ma and v bashing - both companies stock will plunge 50% in next month due to huge worldwide recession that creates famine in asia due to rice issue and north america due to beef issue. ma will plunge to 125 bucks and v to 35 bucks!!!! LOL!!!!
Dont leave and come back when the stock hits $75. I enjoy your informative blogs and you seem to dissect the articles and seperate the fact from fiction.
GreenCapitalist,
I dont think bashing MA or V will help the cause.
i think bashing will help. big time.
i am a big trader of ma stock everyday. when ma reported earnings in dec 2007 there was so much -vity. everybody thought ma is going to miss and guide lower. ma just mowed them like a lawn mower.
you have to listen to their conf calls. seekingalpha might have archived it. the management is awesome. it is a lean and mean machine. gross margin is one of the highest in the industry in finance spectrum. they are expanding crazy in asia pac, south asia, china, mid west and europe. the growth is superb in these regions ranges from 25 to 50% and i expect ma will top estimates.
ma should go 260 after blasting on april 29. it is a company that knows how to run a mean machine + take care of its stock.
v, needless to say matches ma step by step. a gigantic brand and an omnipresent one with huge growth in china and in debit card space in america, it is an engine that is just getting started with ipo.
but we have to bash ma and v so that i can pick up calls cheap and also common stock cheaper.
so, ma and v will be terribly affected by the world recession that is going on right now. people all over the world are struggling to make day to day life needs taken care and riots is going to come all over the world due to credit crunch. ma might merge with bank of america due to its collapse of stock price to low teens from might 220's and visa will be looking for extra capital to run operations. LOL!!!!
You are funny....LOL
This is the 3rd time I am asking both you and Joanne. Since both of you have an opinion (negative, which is your opinion) on this stock, how about you give us what you THINK it is actually worth? Almost every stock publically traded is a deal at a specific price. What is your price for Visa that you would buy it?
You talk about the negatives, what do you think this stock is actually worth today? Most analyst will give an opinion based on their assumptions which are subjective, but they will usually have a best-case and worse-case scenario. All you have is the worse-case, when is this stock a buy, $40, $50, $60?????
Your article, similar to Joanne's article points to the weak economy, recession, tightening credit, delinquencies, as the reason why this stock is not a good buy and grossly over-valued.
Here are a few questions for you.
1. How long do you think this recession will last?
2. What happens to Visa stock once the recession is done and we are in a bull market?
3. What would you say is the low stock price or, in your opinion, the right valuation of this stock?
4. What would you speculate is an appropriate value and target price for the the stock in 1 year?
5. Would you ever buy Visa, if so, at what price?
I am trying get a feel for your outlook. I understand the negative forecast but at some point if you are anlyzing this stock you have to point to a positive. If not the perception is that this stock is not a buy at all and I would think any reasonable person could argue against that. But again if you don't think Visa is a buy at all, let us know why long term you would not buy it.
All your arguments have been short term external factors. When I say short term I am not making light of the current economic situation, but eventually the economy, stock market, housing market will improve since all these are cyclical in nature.
What happens in 1,2 or 3 years?
Also, what stocks WOULD you buy now? Easy to bash but harder to actually put your neck out there and pick a stock or 2.
I agree with your post... they point to the negative but they dont tell us what they believe the actual price of the stocks is, b/c every stock is a buy at some price. And to be honest with you they probably wont b/c they know the actual price is somewhere between $75-80.....which would be considered a BUY right now
I actully enjoy reading negative articles about Visa b/c they give the "other" perspective about the stock. We know all the overwhelming positive articles about visa but its good to read the downside so you know what your risks are. But for some odd reason seekingalpha articles seem to be overwhelming negative.
I am concerned that Visa has too many outstanding shares....i wonder when Visa plans on buying back some of the stocks
perhaps the most abused stock due to its small float and low volume is MA. but as usual MA came right back and closed strong.
at 220 it was a huge opportunity to sink 100K and then bail out at 228. you can make like 7k total in just 2 days!!!!
and when they tank MA nowadays they abuse V also. for no reason V was down big.
but ma and v should go more lower and we need more -ve news so that i can keep buying the common stock and bulk up on may calls.
see ya V at 75 after april 28 and MA at 260 after april 29. one is a lamborgini and other is a benetely. you can own both of them and trade both of them. they have NEVER failed either the trader or the investor so far
So if I understand, you don't have an opinion on what a correct or reasonable valuation is for this stock but all you know is that it is trading at a high PE ratio. And with the weak credit market, you are wondering if why it has not come down.
Have you thought that maybe it isn't at a high PE ratio? I mean what are you comparing it to? What is your benchmark? Are you using financial stocks or the overall stock market? Bank stocks aren't a valid benchmark and really they have not peer pure plays. AMEX and Discover aren't either. What to do?????
PE ratios are all realtive in determing valuation and are not alway the best or only way to determine valuation. It is a good indicator and historically a proven ratio but there are other circumstances that warrant analyst to look at "other" factors.
There are so many companies today that trade pubically that have negative earnings. There PE ratio would be negative and therefore based on this one ratio the impirical valuation would be $0. But yet they are actively traded, have probably inflated market caps and people are buying these stocks.
What I am trying to say is that I see what you are saying with the deteriorating credit markets and what this could mean for V and MA earnings but you have to look at the big picture and there are other ways to measure value, afterall it is a very subjective measurement for large companies. And PE is not the only way, plus you have to add the whole "potential" intangible aspect to this equation.
Now you are also working under the assumption that the markets are efficient and should price in the looming dark credit outlook in a lower price and therefore by simple math the PE ratio should therefore be lower.
This again is assuming that the credit crunch has negatively affect both V and MA, also, as we can see the market is not really being reasonable or predictable right now. Well we haven't heard the earning call just yet so we don't know what the outcome of the credit crunch has been to date.
Again, I ask you, what happens to this stock when the credit crunch is over, the credit market improves, liquidity comes back, default and delinquencies come down and we are in normal (if there is such a thing) market. Now at that point, is V or MA a good stock?
I do agree with some of the analyst who claim that this stock has a high P/E ratio than MA, b/c of the number of stocks that were sold, as of right now. However, as the CEO of Visa claimed the potential market growth of this company with increase use of Credit Cards/ debit cards in Asia is tremendous. China alone is a major potential market for Visa especially with the Olympics sponsorship, etc. Although some analyst claim that govt is cracking down or getting strict with who qualify for credit cards in america, I dont see any regulation in Asia or south america.
With more and more people using credit cards in the world the potential for this company is huge, especially wth the share of the market of 60% vs 25% which is mastercard.
Additionally i have read from another blogger (BuyV) that Visa will be buying back some stock shares. If and when they do the price of this stock will skyrocket. Lastly, the insider trading for Visa was huge about 2-3 weeks ago, I think they know the potential is of this company more than the analyst do.
So read these analyst reports with caution b/c if you look at MA analyst report they just recently all jumped on the bandwagon that MA is a good stock. There werent too many positive analyst of MA when it initally came out.
I totally agree with you about the positives. The problem is that people like Sean and Joanne are arguing short term and we are arguing long term. The Asia market is not yet fully developed but is being created as we blog, therefore the results are not yet factored in. This is a long term strategic plan for the company. Also, the paradigm shift from cash/checks to cards is also taking place. We could anticipate an steady increase or growth in the card(s) usage. The short term credit market is a concern (short term) and does pose a risk that can not be ignored. So while I too appreciate the negative write-ups about Visa, I would rather they take a long term point of view. This is why I constantly ask Joanne and Sean for a long term opinion. They haven't answered because, objectively, if you look long term this is a good buy. The most significant risk I see long term is not the credit markets or the competitors but rather government intervention and regualtion. This will hurt V and MA the most.
I also agree that V issued way too many shares. I would love for them to buy back some of the shares which would create more shareholder value. Unfortunately the pre-planned buy back is for shares from Visa Europe and other V subs. Not sure if they have any plans to buy back Class A shares.
I hope they beat the forecast on April 28th!!
1. pcln - rocked up. it was given tension by articles in this website. my target is 150. they are going to chew the analysts projections as usual.
2. the monster aka fslr - it should reach 350. this earnings on may 1, will be a monster as usual. they are breaking into american segment and this is a limitless company.
3. our hot darling - ma. ma is CHEAP at this 230-ish level. a 60% beat and raise company trading at forward p/e of 20 is pathetic. it should hit 260 after earnings.
4. our latest hottie. v. should hit 80 after earnings. too much of upside in asia and latin america in terms of credit card volume growth.
5. our old but sexy actress rimm. still undervalued at f p/e of 25 for a monster 100% growth company.
and probably we should add MOS and POT along with april 22nd IPO of interpid potash to the list.
jaso - just announced a mega 6000mw over next 7 years or so. this means their average mw zooms from 500 to close to 1000. stock price should hit 35 to 40 pretty soon.
spwr - had a massive earnings but was brought down by a single english word in the conference call. should reach 120 soon.
ipi - intrepid potash. ipo tomorrow. jump in before 32 or so. this baby is going 50.
hpq - reaching mid 50's soon.
aapl - extreme expectations like last time. some analysts increasing targets more than 200 bucks. a 40% growth company does not deserve such high multiple's. i am also bearish on mac sales reaching stratosphere.
bidu - god only knows how people are giving such valuations to this company. it is not like flsr (aka the monster) to give such valuations.
goog - short term bearish. but should take 600 pretty soon.
What do you think IPI (intrepid potash) will open at market price for greencapitalist. People are speculating that it may come out at $40-45. If so would you still recommended......And what do you think is the long term result of this stock?????
Your assumption that credit card usage is up and cash is disappearing is WRONG. it's the OPPOSITE.
See:
www.epaynews.com/resou...
Second:
You assume no competitors or margins squeezed - WRONG
Competitors will emerge soon, with lower costs for merchants and consumers.
Basically you are talking crap, based on inadequate research. Have a guess why don't you?
I think Visa will be lucky to make it out of this 'recession' unless they can buyout all new competitors.
In Europe the ECB has implored members of the EBA to set up a competitor to Mastercard and Visa in Europe with lower interchange fees. Do you think the Eu banks won't? Get real, there's money to be made and plenty of government support for any new competitor. Do you have some dream that Visa and Mastercard will dominate China and India or that Japanese will start using credit cards?
The financial world is changing very fast, but you still have to do your research!
If interchange fees were negligible, where would you be on Visa and Mastercard?
The writing is on the wall, the banks have cashed in and any day they'll start screwing them - and you. They are just waiting for your bunnies to line up and buy their shares in Mastercard and Visa which have peaked.
Sure if you get enough ignorant nuts on board you can spike the price but...
At least I base my opinion on knowledge.
'Mortgage brokers have no direct credit risk either and they get an upfront fee when the transaction closes. If a borrower defaults, mortgage brokers do not lose a penny'.
Many mortgage brokers also receive a 'trailing' commission. If the borrower defaults and is foreclosed, or 'churns' to another lender, the mortgage broker's trailing commission disappears. The operators of these mortgage brokers did not, of course, often tell their sales staff about the trailing commissions.
To those of you that doubted me and this stock, I have just one word that encapsulates what you are: LOSERS
By the way, there is no 'Sean Miller'- look at 'his' bio- and you will see that this is a pen name- as I have said all along anyone can post an analysis on this site. The problem with that is that you have people with no experience or investment knowledge doing so. My guess is that 'Sean' is actually Joanne (see 'her' earlier post). The reason I say that is that she didn't know that an underwriter can't loan shares to short an IPO for 30 days. She also didn't know that V included all global properties (other than Europe). By demonstrating that she knew very little about investments, and nothing about IPOs- she was probably too embarrassed to use her real name even if that was her name even it 'it' was a her.
Bottom line- I own several thousands of shares as a core position- also trade this stock daily. To date- I have generated a a fortune on this stock. It has been one of the best experiences I have ever had. I am smiling from ear to ear right now looking at the bid price of 75.00 at 6:49pm :)
Yes, V will have some corrections- as all stock does. BUT- this stock went from 58$ to 75$ in a little over a month- and its just starting its run. New institional ownership is less than 5%- and when the float gets soaked up- this stock will break out like a mofo. I expect $100. by the end of summer. The market has finally woken up to the fact the sky is not falling in- and after we broke the 12.900 dow resistance today- we are on the cusp of a run that should take us past 15.000 w/in the next few months.
A few final words:
Wez- You are a loser- I know you can't afford to buy the stock. You probably frequent peep shows too- as I'm sure you can't afford a real woman. Do yourself a favor- open up a virtual stock account and you can pretend you are like those of us that actual invest in V as opposed to spread their negativity.
Buy Foreclosures- You are a loser too- I understand why a bottom feeder (the carp of the financial world)- who makes a living profiting of other's misfortune- can't understand those of us with triple-digit IQs -
Adesai- You are a WINNER buddy- another true believer - congrats.
Jim West- nice talking with you too- good luck !
The best accolades for last:
Green Capitalist- I love you man! I learned about Intrepid Potash from you- I bought it at 48.25 and sold it all the next day- I'm going to give my old benz to my wife and buy a new one on the money I made on that deal alone- thanks bro.
To all of you that actually hold stock in V-good luck- see you at $100.
Jonathan
buy MA. VERY VERY VERY CHEAP. compared to V, MA is trading at a HUGE DISCOUNT. cannot say more.
V at 75 (and v is taking 100 soon) means Ma should be atleast 270. V at 100 means MA at 330.
yesterday's axp numbers were very good and axp is a little guy in credit card. ma and v should blow the earnings away.
i think this is a good time to load up on POT, MOS and IPI. unnecessarily they have thrashed fertilizer sector even after block buster earnings from pot. i would say to add pot, mos and ipi and if they pull back then average in.
i see pot easy 300 in next 6 months, MOS at 160, IPI at 80. dont panic if they sell. just add it.
did you see deck, it was my favorite too. i missed recommending it. watch for the rocketan pcln after its earnings.
the top on my list is the under appreciated and abused MA.
buyv, i would say you to spread your money across sectors and not load up on V alone.
also they are thrashing RIMM on rumours. if they hit it to 115 and 110, average it down. it is a 100% growth company trading dead cheap.
and dont forget the monster aka fslr. earnings on april 30. see ya fslr at 375 soon.
As far as V- I think we will hit 100$ very soon as long as earnings are strong- and guidance is semi-positive we should hit it by the Olympics.
As far as MA- people are just looking at the price of the share- and not the fundamentals. It also had a great run up - but still has a long way to go. They report next week as well and should throw some solid numbers on the board.
Amex did well and they carry debt and have a much smaller footprint- why? GLOBAL GROWTH MADE UP FOR THE US SLOWDOWN. Imagine what V and MA are going to do without the debt- Next week should be huge for us....
seekingalpha.com/artic...
with above estimates alone pot can carry north of 250.
ma - the most abused stock because nobody sells and a low float and can be taken for a ride. +10/-10 points for ma in a day is nothing. but it is UNDER PRICED by a huge margin.
i am listening to all their conf calls. i have listened to all last 3 years. it is a beautiful company with solid management guys. MA is a buy here. I am loading for 100k shares before earnings with 210 puts for protection (just in case the stupid market decides to do a potash on ma).
you might want to load up on spwr. a 90% growth company deserves much more than 85 bucks at forward p/e of 35 or so. like barrons said this baby going 130 in this year.
i think goog is trading cheap at these levels. aapl is a buy and with 3g it should take out 190 easy.
for quick trading also all these stocks also can be bought and sold.
next week it is vmafslr week!!!!
let's get rolling and yeah let me finish with a -ve. the world is in bad recession, the sun is setting down due to global warming and v is going to 20 and ma going bankruptcy and fslr is folding due to lack of sun....LOL!!!!!!!!!!!
I do, however, agree with you on the Potash stocks- and here's why:
China has virtually no domestic potash production. If you look at why nickel, and copper have seen the big run ups it is because China consumes 25% of the world's supply of both metals yet produces less than 5%. Same thing with Potash. The only way to solve the world's food crisis is with Potash. There will be 9.5 billion people by the year 2009 (up from 6.7billion now)- and the developing world has simply maxed out current food stocks (trust me- its not farmer bob making ethanol doing this- its the developing world eating more combined with an increase in population)- and Potash is the magic ingredient in farming. I agree 100% that these companies are CASH COWS.
Now- back to V- that is what I love about V- it is also a cash cow (and I will conceed that Mastercard has excellent fundamentals and plenty of room for growth)- but, unlike a miner or manufacturer- there are very few employees, very little cost in doing business, and a whole lot of profit.......
I have a new sense of optimism about seeking alpha after hearing about IPI from Green Capitalist- Good stuff!
I too am in the same boat as both of you. I sold all my other stocks and own only 3: Visa, Intrepid Potash and EJ (E house china). I got in with IPI at $45 about 2200 shares and bought more at $50. I heard about that stock on friday before it went IPO on monday. Especially with POT, MOS, CF, AGU having record prices, due to projection of Potash being sold at $1,000 a ton compared to $250 a ton last year.
I have a question for both of you... what do you think about this stock EJ. Its the largest real estate agency in china and there stock fell to $15.... its projected to be at $36...and i believe it may hit it this summer with the olympics.....
As far as MA i will take your advice greencapitalist and buy some. I am just awaiting March 28 when the earning report come out for V.
Its good to hear from you again Winner V....
I'm taking a break from China - so I'm not following any Chinese stocks.
As far as alpha- I remember asking my father as a teenager what it would take to find a good woman- he replied; 'you have to dig through a lot of dumpsters to find a diamond'. The diamond was finding out about IPI on a Green C post- for that the frustration was worth it.
I am excited about V - I think we should see a strong pop - even if guidance is conservative. Transactions, revenue, and global expansion will all be strong. V is starting to make some strong moves already in the gulf and in china (the fact that they have 1.2 billion from Chinese and Kuwaiti investors alone - helps). I really don't think too many people understand how brilliant they have been in putting together the investors they have. Unlike most companies raising capital from passive investors - V is already putting its investors to work. Its a seamless viral business expansion strategy- and this applies to the member banks (pre-ipo investors)- as well as the ipo investors-
Im on-board with you brother. I believe V will be more than 150+ in 2-3 years.. Especially with the growth in Aisa and brand name recognition. I beleive of all the companies that are sponsoring the summer olympics in China i think Visa has the most to gain b/c of the growth of credit card usage in India and China... Lastly but not least when you have Insiders in the company buying shit loads of Visa stock you know there is something good going on.....I believe this stock will pay for a ferrari or lamborghini or possibly even both....haha
As far as IPI i heard about this stock on AOL.com finance that claimed that this is the hottest stock of the year (even above V)... It claimed that IPI might be the hottest stock to come out since Google and it should see heights of $100+ within this year b/c of the low floating shares in addition to the price of potash and the low supply to demand ratio. One concern I have is the global market share that IPI has which is about 1.5% which i hope they will increase with the continued increase demand... I heard the 35 min presentation done by the CEO of IPI on the website retailroadshow.com/ind... which is a presentation by the executives of the issuing company of all IPO to investors.. the video is probably not there any more as they rid of it once it goes public...Anyways it was informative and i was convinced of there growth potential.
Im banking on these 2 stocks....My theory is: find several hott stocks and put all your eggs in that basket...why take the risk investing in 15-20 stocks when you can invest in 2-3 that you "KNOW" are going to the top.
you guys gotta read this bullshit article
I got into IPI- and love it- and have no doubts that the agricultural bull run (like Oil) is here to stay. We have reached peak oil- and now, peak ag, and peak metals- the boom and bust cycles of the commodities cycles are being replaced with 'boom and boom'. People forget that the developing world is eating twice as much and the amount of people on this planet is going to grow from 6.7 bil to 9.5 bill in the next 25 years- all while absorbing an ever-increasing amount of farm land. Not only that- but metal capacity and oil capacity is stretched to the max. You could pretty much invest in any of the potash stocks, or big miners (rio/bhp/mechel-etc) and forget about them for 10 years and wake up much wealthier.
The same consumption patterns are what make V a winner- and I think 10% growth year-over-year is conservative. Once V gets past the litigation this stock will go parabolic- and even until then I see 100 by the end of the Olympics- and 125 by the end of the year.
I'll check out the other blog
a little note here.
it is not good to put all or even major of your money in one stock even whatsoever great it may be.
i am in ma since 150 and i was in full but now diversifying. ma is DEAD CHEAP at 230-ish. it should take out 300 soon. dont forget to listen to conference call on april 29 morning at investorrelations.mast...
again DONT put all your money in one stock or even 3 stocks. it is not good. DONT fall in love with a stock or company.
keep diversified. if you feel MA or V is great, maybe you can have like 40% of money in it or less but not more than that.
another thing to keep an eye on is aapl. it should take 190 to 200 out pretty soon once 3g and china move comes in.
in agri i would say POT/IPI as your holding and nothing more than that.
in china, i would suggest to look for china solar companies like stp, jaso, tsl. all have low p/e but 90% kind of growth.
that's all i have for now. catch you guys after vmafslr calls.
I also agree with you that Mastercard (MA) is a great company to invest in.
I don't agree in building a mutual fund-like portfolio (if you can afford to do so). If I lose ever dime in the market today it will not change my lifestyle a bit. I go with the quality over quantity approach.
I'm trading V now - and have generated close to 6 figures in the last month alone (not to mention the ROI on my core position.
As far as the Chinese Solars- I personally won't touch solar that is not thin film- block silicon is on the way out. I'm not saying that there is not some value in Chinese solar cos- but they are MOSTLY using old tech- and are played out. Do you know of any of the China solar cos - using First Solar - like tech? THAT would be of interest to me..
Good luck Monday with Mastercard. Visa also has a link on its site to the conference call. Good luck with Intrepid
Earings were strong, transactions were up, guidance was solid.
The ONLY reason the stock came down is that people had unrealistic expectations that couldn't have possibly been met.
BUT- this stock will come back strong now that analysts are covering it. I listened to the conference call and ever major Ibank was represented and the numbers across the board were very strong.
Don't forget that at 75 the stock is up 72% from day one! This will be one of the last times to buy on a correction.
Good luck!
when HUGE expectations are there, stock reacts -vely even though fundamentals are great.
but as i was telling MA is STILL CHEAP compared to V and has more growth than V.
let's see this. outside america growth, weak dollar, highest margins, lean management, almost 70% focus on latin america, asia and europe, emerging #1 in middle east, etc makes ma more attractive than v.
v at 55 equals ma at 240. v at 65 equals ma at 260. ma should give around 2.15 to 2.20 tomorrow taking it to 270 and STILL CHEAP compared to V at 65. if V comes to 60 to 65 then MA should be close to 300 compared to V's valuation.
i would say go MA for near term since potential for stock rise is much bigger than V.
BUT- V has a lot of bounce back potential.
I have no problem with MA- and wish you the best of luck- but I have to say that V will bounce around 70 for a couple of days - and will break out next month for another run- I expect 80/85 within a month.
Good Luck on MA- it does have a great valuation and until V overtakes them in foriegn markets should have another year in it :)
massive 59 cents beat. that is massive.
the stock in premarket is at 265. it is CHEAP. V at 65 to 70 and MA with this beat should take MA to 300 soon.
V has gone upto 74.5 in premarket. I would sell V into strength and get back once it comes down lower than 70 closer to 65.
but if V stays closer to 70's, MA should gallop past 300 soon.
i dont think V can overtake MA so easily in foreign markets. MA has been blasting in foreign markets for a long time and will sprint away.
80/85 for v - i think you are falling in love with V too much and at 85 it will valued at like 60 times its earnings which is not possible at all.
V @ noon- 77$$$$$$$$$$$$
Funds will buy = price will rise
V will have a bigger share of foriegn markets w/in 24 months
I think MA is great- but V has more room to move
You can say all you want about MA- but investors want NEW- and Visa still has a lonnnnnnnnnnnnnggggggg way to go.
MA does have potential that is in major part due to the # of shares offered in addition to the fundamentals of Mastercard. In terms of size, Visa is the "mircosoft" and Mastercard is the "apple" in the credit card industry. They both are great but I still believe that Visa with its shear market size and its subsidiary: Visa-asia, Visa-canada, etc. which has now been incorporated into 1 has more of a regional presence and better growth potential than MA will... And with the acquisition of Visa-europe in a few years I believe this stock can be in the $150-200 within 2 years.
Visa did rebound from yesterday drop off in after-market trading. Its trading at $77.85. With the olympcs around the corner and visa sponsorship I see the potential of Visa in Asia to be huge and propel this Visa stock right to the top. I believe Visa will be in 80-85 range in about 1 month (if not several weeks)
NO stock can have this unless they have monster quarters like fslr or ma. v did not have monster qtr. it had an okay qtr and okay guidance.
why v stock is up? because ma is ramping up and momo traders catching up in v to make quick buck.
v at 77 means ma should be over 300 which wont happen in a while.
if you are v early on, this is little time to book some profits (like say 30 to 40%) and leave the rest running.
i am still not convinced of v. margins dropped. management brand new from outside. ma running huge in growth markets like europe, asia, lac and middle east, v priced FULLY, etc.
again v is a great stock, but dont fall love with it. i wont add positions also.
we need monster qtrs from v to justify this p/e. ma is giving it and STILL undervalued HUGE.
V at 77 = ma+great earnings at 320 or so.
listen to ma call today and also their presentation. ma is having analyst meeting in may middle where they are going to RAISE 3 year guidance. v infact guided low at 20% rather than analysts 28%. ma is beating v in ALL growth markets for sure.
and more importantly MA pricing can increase in transactions since V charges most.
my 2 cents.
hedge funds are shorting it like crazy since average investors like us either are panicking or totally confused.
so DON't average (contrary to my earlier call of averaging). but DONT sell at loss also. just let this mayhem stabilise.
also you SHOULD avoid IPI. it has an enormous multiple. so let it come down.
the reason for the downturn is lot of hedge funds are booking profits since they got way early and also fed rate cut end means higher dollar. both of which has NOTHING to do with fundamentals of agri companies or stocks.
I am going to trade on every 2$ dip this year- and keep a solid core position. Insitutional ownership is less than 5%- which no other 25billion market cap stock on Wall Street can claim. Once the float gets scooped - this stock will continue on its run. I expect a post-elation correction this week and I will have my order ready to go when it does..
Why don't you get in touch with MA and tell them to split the stock- that would be a good move right now..
it is very pricey at 40 to 50 times its earnings. ma is very cheap at 25 to 30 times the valuation. but market seems not to care. i am not a fighter of the market.
i am now in v camp i guess. if market is willing to give 40 times the earnings why not 50. i think v going 90 soon.
ma at even 40 times earnings will be like 320 or so. let's see how it plays out.
You are absolutely right about the fundamentals. In a way MA is a victim of its own success. People look at what MA did and want to re-live the party. They just think that V even at 80 has more upside than V. Look at Potash for example- that company is making more money than god- and people are dumping it- we are living in bizarro world.
Anyway- the institutions weren't phased- 42mm shares traded beating the previous high of by 17mm- that wasn't grandma's ameritrade account- that was the first phase of institutional money.
I am HOPING for another correction this week- and the next time I see a $3- drop (which I think will be the last money taking profits tom. or Thur) I'm a gonna' buy me more of that V..........
I think you can't go wrong with V OR MA- they are both cash cows
V closed at $80.88 on its biggest trading day ever for those of you that didn't know..........
it is visa's market to lose in america and credit card growth is not slowing down in america due to downturn. so v's upside in america is already there. if the cup is full how much water can your pour. if credit card growth is full in in america how much v can take more growth from saturated market.
that's why mastercard went international as a strategy couple of years back and the ceo was very keen on that and that's why ma is ramping big and beating v in growth terms.
remember ma is just having 30% or so of american market but still has reveunes of 1.2 billion compared to 1.45 billion of visa. that tells that visa seems to be saturating.
am i missing something. i want to let you know that i am NOT a v hater or anything like that. i sold in early 70's of V thinking its valuation is reaching the full cup. but i think either i am missing something to appreciate or probably v is in a bubble.
they told that when ma was 150.
they told that when ma was 190
they told that when ma was 220
they told that when ma was 235
they are telling that when ma is 273
they WILL tell that when ma is 325...
they told that when v was 58
they told that when v was 65
they told that when v was 70
they told that when v was 75
they are telling that when v is 80
guess they will tell the same when v is 90 in 1 year - i am little cautious on v :-)
the fastmonkeys are worst than this novice writer who wrote this zero analysis article
I know- its crazy - I am HOPING for another pullback- even without a pullback I bought more in pre-trading..............
CAN YOU SAY 84$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I see a few speed-bumps ahead - but I can see 100
Visa's new slogan:
On the 8th day- god created the V card
if it comes back to 84.5 i will cover for no profit no loss. it went close to 85 in very low volume of like 1.5 million share or so.
i think it is trading at 45 times earning, a valuation which is unprecedented considering v's growth projection and v's america expsoure.
we will see how my short is going to do.
This reminds me of 1999!
Good luck man- i'm lookin at 83.90.......(242PM)
v way overvalued for sure. but as you told this market is manipulated one by big guys and hedge funds and has no brain on its own.
i understand traders do this. but this kind of voltality cannot be induced by few traders. those big guys at trading desks manipulate the stocks to whichever direction they want...
pretty crazy...
when ma blasted and teared the way up by massive beat, they are sheepish - www.fool.com/investing...
fool.com, articles like this in seekingalpha are good pointers that YOU do YOUR own research and not rely on useless websites.
btw, i covered at 82.2. this v baby is insane in valuation and looks like will reach 100 pretty easily. valuation? what the hell is that :-)
www.stocksabroad.com/m...
Check out what happened to the Brazilian Adrs today!!! INSANE
Bovespa hit an all-time high today- up 6%....
WHY?? SandP upgraded Brazil's credit to 'investment grade'- which paves the way for a big chunk of change to go into Brazil. Even though Bovespa is the largest stock exchange- just a few billion will impact that market big time.
My wife is Brazilian and I've spent a lot of time down there- and the economy is ON FIRE........
The two best performing stock markets this year::
1. US
2. Brazil
An easy way to play is the Brazil Etf (EWZ)- but there are a lot of great companies there........I have been playing Brazil for a couple of years but what happened today was very big- and I think Brazil is a VERY STRONG play right now.......
V- I don't know man- we are living in bizarro world-------- I still love V and own it but i'm going to take a break on v for a couple of days and chill out......... My take that we are going to see 100$ within 3 months but the way things are going it could happen sooner.........
i will crash 300 pretty easy...
and STILLL CHEEAPPPPP at 30 times or so earnings it is easily 50 to 80 points below v's valuation.
if market give v 100, then MA should definitely be like 400's range...
I'm laughing all the way to the bank.........
Green Cap- I agree 100%- about MA - Mastcard has 25% in it by the end of the year- thats fo sho
i think ma is reaching 350 BEFORE next earnings. this is in next 3 months. with super asia, europe and middle east growth they will beat estimates minimum 20 to 40 cents every qtr.
as world economy improves, plastic will surge more and ma with lean and management might post very tough fight in america and easily overtake v outside america.
this does not mean v growth will be low, but ma growth will be super.
ma for end of 2008 will be inching to 400 and with 12 bucks per share in 2010, it will be close to 500 in middle of next year. of course if they split it, the share will adjust appropriately.
Instead of arguing which is better- as I know your opinion is for V - can we just say that both of these companies have bright futures.
one thing to note is that ma is moving value chain to challenging our dawg axp. their ameriprise deal is an indicator. also watch for ma's move on luxury segment more.
v can definitely crush ma again by aggressive moves and making ma growth in a reduced rate. but having watched ma's management, it looks increasingly v will be under pressure.
also my pick for next week. the one and only pcln. a mean, lean, hungy couple of hundred employee machine, they crush earnings left, right and center. may 8 is the earnings. expect pcln to go 150 GURANTEEEDDD...
to wrap up. inspite of ma's 60 buck move in 2 days. it is STILLL CHEAPPPPPPP
once it reaches 340 before earnings we need to book little profits and run the rest further....
i think v will run with ma's move, but v increasingly getting pricey whereas ma reaching correct valuation at 340.
also they are hitting flsr for no reason. i would allow fslr to come back to below 250 and watch its management on new solar plants annoucement before jumping in. also spwr has been thrashed to dust. it is a good story and guided higher this year. my 2 picks on solar side are these.
The ONLY difference I have with you is that I think the order is reversed. You are looking more from a fundamentals standpoint- and from that tact- MA is a more solid company. BUT- the new money is going to hit V- and V will take a bigger market share of the global transaction business. Either way- I agree to disagree. I also like the majority of your opinions.
ma especially was hit like 15 points. i got in again at 283. i think it may touch 275 in worst case, but highly unlikely.
analysts are increasing ma's eps for 2008 like crazy. in 2009 and 2010, the numbers are even shooting higher www.zacks.com/rank/zco...
zacks has been behind ma as strong buy since 150 and they are still touting this. a solid company with solid fundamentals and a growing market share. ma is still cheap trading at early 30's for this year p/e and in low 20's for next years. very very cheap for a growth company like this.
this week is the mean machine pcln coming out. earnings is on thrusday after bell.
expected is 50 to 60 cents a share. they will beat by 20 cents easily.
buy after market open on friday and this baby is going 150 for sure.
and I'll check out PCLN-
I have to say that although the multiples are insane for V it seems that there are no shortage of buyers...
By the way- I talked about the brazilian play a week ago (before the big run-up). This is not a short term trade...there is a long way to go. Brazil is the only major market in the world to record over that has continued to prosper from the fourth quarter of last year and into this year. I am in many,many brazilian stocks- and have 100% confidence in that market. Having been there,and having a brazilian wife, and having done extensive research- further cemented my belief in the future of brazilian stocks over the next 5-10 years.
For a list of brazilian adrs- go to stocksabroad.com and hit the 'brazil adrs' link..
I'll check out pcln - keep the tips coming...
ma still has to catch up with v on valuation and that is 330 to 350 range.....
expect guidance increase in may end/june 1st week analyst meeting...
call citibank and ordered by 2nd ma card today. ofcourse got 1 ma and 1 v already.....
damnn.. dow down -200 and v only +ve. they hit ma also. i sold at 300 and got in again at 292 for half. 300 is a resistance for sure and for no reason.
with v trading close to 45 times earnings this year and close to 40 for next year, ma should be like 350 for sure.
we will see...
i am not buying ma calls because of 300 resistance and once it breaks through i will look at 350 calls one or 2 months expiry from now.
hey, tomorrow is pclan. i am loading up on calls at 145/150 price. expedia showed huge international growth and pcln is international leader with aggressive moves into china.
Gree i like your correlation between V and MA ...probably going to start playing MA now that i've dumped my take2...i trade what i know and pcln isn't something that's even on the radar so i'm going to say thanks but no thanks....
other current big personal holdings are apple,google,fxi jan09 calls....things on radar MA--love the volumes, ttwo june 30 calls---EA has pushed back their bid for take2 three times already (its now the 16th of may--we'll see if they push back or raise offer or walk away) i figure once may options expire they raise offer and the deal gets done...Ea raises bid to 28-29 a share...currently trading in low 26's its worth a look, also like the brazillian and russian trades both are great places to have exposure to...
global trades took a hit recently (fcx's pot's mos's etc...longer term players can get in at these levels no doubt)
I expect these federal retrun checks to boost economy and we possibly have a pull back end of the yr once credit markets start to widen again...ultimatley they will widen again i feel its only matter of time(when is the most difficult time to predict)....the plan is to be in and out before that happens...also investing in real estate (residential in North Carolina)...considerin... oversea's real estate also as markets have been getting beat up elsewhere as well...
i'm saving the link will check back w/ u guys later.....
one thing to remember is that great companies and great management always deliver.
fslr, ma, v, pcln, rimm - 200% winners
valuation wise ma and rimm STILLL CHEAPPPPPP
Not sure if you guys are playing in cnbc's million dollar portfolio challange or not but it starts on the 12th...figure its a long shot winning one of the weeks but its worth a try...good luck