3 Successful 2012 IPOs With Great Growth Prospects

Includes: ADNC, IRG, PFPT
by: Greg Group

The initial public offering (NYSEARCA:IPO) market has been stymied by the failure of the Facebook (FB) IPO on May 18. The number of initial public offerings in the second quarter ground to a halt because of Facebook's disappointing public debut. While Facebook Inc's $16 billion offering made the second quarter the strongest period on record by dollars raised, the number of deals fell by 50 percent to 11 in the quarter versus the same quarter last year. Investors see the FB failure alarming and are hesitant to look at new IPOs. However, I have found three IPOs going public just before the FB launch that may have been overlooked by many investors. These three successful IPOs that provide great opportunities for future growth are discussed below.

Ignite Restaurant Group (IRG) went public on May 11 at an offer price of $14 and is currently trading at $19.49. Ignite, which has 122 Joe's Crab Shack restaurants and 16 of its newer Brick House Tavern+Tap chain, says it still has plenty of room to add new restaurants in the U.S., an attractive proposition for investors looking for a growth stock. Joe's Crab Shack, with its funky, casual style, has been able to attract customers despite the rough economy, by aiming to be "affordable" without positioning itself as a discount chain in its commercials. In the first quarter that ended March 26, revenue increased 18.3% to $103.4 million; and its profit increased 115.1% to $2.5 million, compared with the same period in 2011.

We expect Joe's unit growth to accelerate to 7% in F12 and 12% in F13 before remaining in the low-double digits for years to come. With only 119 Joe's as of F11YE and 350 target trade areas identified, we expect another decade of high-quality domestic unit growth from Joe's. IRG's core concept, Joe's Crab Shack, is accelerating to self-funding double-digit unit growth backed by new unit ROICs among the best in casual dining. We see significant white space opportunity to grow a high-quality, crab-centric concept, with pent-up demand supporting a decade of double-digit unit growth, mid-teens top-line growth, and 20%-plus EPS growth. Its closest widespread competitor is Red Lobster, operated by Darden (DRI), which focuses on lobster and some crab dishes.

Audience Inc (ADNC) went public on May 10 at an offer price of $17 and is currently trading at $20.75. ADNC has a dominant position in voice isolation/noise suppression with rapid adoption NT as a "like-to-have" technology in high-end smartphones. LT we see a clear opportunity for ADNC's core competency to become "must-have" IP in voice recognition - one of three dominant interface technologies (touch, gesture, voice). We see 3 NT drivers: (1) leverage to Apple (AAPL) and Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) in smartphones, (2) new TAM opportunities in Tablets, PCs, TVs, Autos and (3) potential to integrate additional functionality into the SoC (audio codec).

ADNC's strong IP is validated by key customer wins at AAPL and Samsung. We are estimating license revenue (all AAPL) of $42m in 2012 and $46m in 2013 versus AAPL handset estimates of 140m and 187m - the 10% growth in license revenue in 2013 versus 33% growth in AAPL handsets provides significant cushion in our opinion. Similarly, we are estimating Samsung revenue at ADNC to grow 36% in 2013 versus Samsung unit sales of 45% - while ASP declines help explain the discrepancy we would argue our attach rate assumptions at Samsung next year could be too low (17% to 22%), providing another cushion to our 2013 estimates.

Proofprint Inc (PFPT) went public on April 19 at an offer price of $13 and is currently trading at $15.43. PFPT is a service provider that focuses on cloud-based solutions for threat protection, compliance, archiving & governance and secure communications. The company has said a shift in the sources of cyber crime from hackers toward organized crime and governments, combined with international data trafficking, is driving a large wave of attacks on data. Its software, sold on a subscription basis, is used by about 2,400 customers around the world, including 26 of the Fortune 100 companies. It markets its products through its own sales team and through distributors and resellers, as well as through strategic partners such as International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and VMware Inc. (VMW).

Proofpoint reported solid March quarter results with revenue, EPS, and billings above our estimate driven by strong momentum of Proofpoint's SaaS offerings in the market place. Specifically, subscription revenue grew 45% year-over-year driven by strong new business bookings. Renewal rate continued to remain above 90% in the quarter. Furthermore, management indicated the revenue contribution from monthly billings has increased from approximately 10% to approximately 15% in the quarter; primarily due to a onetime contractual price increase as the business with one of their strategic partners continue to expand. Proofpoint signed several contracts with large organizations in the quarter to offer protection and archiving modules. We believe that security-as-a-service has begun to make greater inroads into large enterprises, which would bring significant opportunity for Proofpoint, which has emerged as a leading provider in the SaaS messaging security market.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.